NASDAQ$GSHD

Goosehead Insurance Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a 10% increase in total revenues and a rise in net income compared to the prior-year period.

Goosehead Insurance reported strong Q4 2023 results, with a 10% increase in total revenues to $63.0 million and net income improving to $5.4 million from $2.6 million year-over-year. Adjusted EPS increased by 155% to $0.28 per share, and total written premiums placed grew by 29% to $756.1 million. The company's focus on productivity and strategic changes contributed to these positive results.

  • Total revenues grew 10% year-over-year to $63.0 million.
  • Core revenues increased 10% year-over-year to $56.9 million.
  • Net income improved to $5.4 million, with EPS increasing by 650% and adjusted EPS increasing by 155%.
  • Total written premiums placed increased 29% year-over-year to $756.1 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$63M

Previous: $57.4M+9.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.28

Previous: $0.11+154.5%
Total Written Premiums Placed

$756M

No prior period
Policies in Force

1.5M

Previous: 1.3M+15.7%
Client Retention

86.0%

Previous: 88.0%-2.3%
Premium Retention

101.0%

Previous: 100.0%+1.0%
Net Promoter Score

92

No prior period
Corporate Sales Agents < 1 Year Tenured

135

No prior period
Operating Franchises < 1 Year Tenured

183

No prior period
Total Franchise Producers

2.0K

No prior period
QTD Corporate Agent Productivity < 1 Year

$13.8K

No prior period
QTD Franchise Productivity < 1 Year

$11K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$497K

Previous: -$4.64M+110.7%
Net Income

$5.4M

Previous: $2.6M+107.7%
Operating Income

$6.68M

Previous: $6.78M-1.4%
Gross Profit

$24.2M

Previous: -$75.9M+131.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.04M

Previous: $3.29M+53.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Goosehead Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$63M

Q4 2023+9.8%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Goosehead Insurance · $58M total across 3 segments · Q1 2023

  • Core Revenue
    $52M+42.4%
  • Cost Recovery Revenue
    $3.46M+32.3%
  • Ancillary Revenue
    $2.51M+16.2%

Forward guidance

Goosehead Insurance provided guidance for the full year 2024, expecting total written premiums placed to be between $3.70 billion and $3.85 billion, representing 25% to 30% organic growth. Total revenues are expected to be between $310 million and $320 million, representing 19% to 22% organic growth. The company also anticipates adjusted EBITDA Margin to expand for the full year 2024.

Tailwinds

  • Total written premiums placed are expected to grow by 25% to 30%.
  • Total revenues are expected to increase by 19% to 22%.
  • Contingent commissions are expected to be approximately 35 basis points of total written premiums.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Margin is expected to expand for the full year 2024.
  • Focus on driving accelerating new business production growth in 2024.

Headwinds

  • No specific negative guidance was provided in the summary.
  • Guidance is subject to various risks and uncertainties.
  • Conditions impacting insurance carriers could affect results.
  • Loss of key executives or failure to attract qualified personnel could impact performance.
  • Inability to attract and retain highly qualified franchisees could affect growth.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

15 / 35 earnings

Positive

+25.8%

Q2 2024

Best reaction

-18.6%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+11.5%+7.4%-8.6%
Q4 2025-6.4%-9.5%-16.2%
Q3 2025+8.1%+7.8%+3.9%
Q2 2025-0.5%+2.4%-6.7%
Q1 2025-12.0%-9.4%+2.7%
Q4 2024+15.9%+16.6%+14.2%
Q3 2024+13.2%+14.6%+32.2%
Q2 2024+25.8%+31.1%+19.0%
Q1 2024-11.5%-5.3%+7.2%
Q4 2023-18.6%-15.2%-19.7%
Q3 2023-5.8%-7.8%+4.3%
Q2 2023+4.5%+0.7%-10.1%
Q1 2023+7.3%+5.7%+0.6%
Q4 2022+17.5%+15.7%+29.4%
Q3 2022+15.2%+20.1%+15.0%
Q2 2022+20.4%+12.4%+10.8%
Q1 2022-3.2%+0.3%-9.4%
Q4 2021-0.8%+1.7%-10.8%
Q3 2021-4.2%-9.8%-12.3%
Q2 2021-6.5%-5.2%+8.1%
Q1 2021-3.2%-10.2%-20.9%
Q4 2020-10.6%-21.7%-30.6%
Q3 2020+14.5%+15.6%+14.8%
Q2 2020+21.7%+25.0%+18.9%
Q1 2020-0.1%+1.3%+4.3%
Q4 2019+1.7%+5.1%-6.9%
Q3 2019-16.9%-14.4%-20.8%
Q2 2019-3.7%-2.6%+2.7%
Q1 2019+16.6%+11.6%+22.3%
Q4 2018-7.6%-6.1%-0.1%
Q3 2017-11.9%-21.3%-26.3%
Q3 2018-11.6%-21.7%-29.6%
Q2 2017-4.8%-3.2%+15.6%
Q2 2018-3.2%-0.4%+10.8%
Q1 2018+7.7%+21.5%+43.5%
Q4 2017
Q1 2017

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