NASDAQ$GSHD

Goosehead Insurance Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Goosehead Insurance's Q4 2019 earnings report showcased strong organic revenue growth and a significant increase in net income and Adjusted EBITDA.

Goosehead Insurance reported a strong fourth quarter in 2019, with revenues increasing by 59% to $23.4 million. Net income attributable to Goosehead Insurance, Inc. was $1.8 million, or $0.12 per basic share and $0.11 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 224% to $7.5 million, and total written premiums placed increased by 45% to $196 million.

  • Revenue increased 59% year-over-year to $23.4 million.
  • Net income attributable to Goosehead Insurance, Inc. was $1.8 million, or $0.12 per basic share and $0.11 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted EPS was $0.13 per share, including a $0.06 benefit from ASC 606.
  • Total written premiums placed grew 45% year-over-year to $196 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$23.4M

Previous: $14.7M+58.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.13

Previous: $0.01+1200.0%
Total Written Premiums Placed

$196M

Previous: $135M+45.2%
Policies in Force

482.0K

Previous: 334.1K+44.3%
Client Retention

88.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$409K

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$4.34M

No prior period
Net Income

$5.3M

No prior period
Operating Income

$6.55M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$12.6M

No prior period
Cash & Equivalents

$14.3M

No prior period
Total Assets

$64.6M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$394K

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Goosehead Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$23.4M

Q4 2019+58.8%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 7 of 11 quarters(64%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Goosehead Insurance · $58M total across 3 segments · Q1 2023

  • Core Revenue
    $52M+42.4%
  • Cost Recovery Revenue
    $3.46M+32.3%
  • Ancillary Revenue
    $2.51M+16.2%

Forward guidance

The Company's outlook for the full year 2020 is as follows: • Total written premiums placed for 2020 are expected to be between $975 million and $1.035 billion, representing organic growth of 32% on the low end of the range to 40% on the high end of the range. • Total revenues for 2020 under ASC 606 revenue accounting are expected to be between $100 million and $105 million, representing organic growth of 29% on the low end of the range to 36% on the high end of the range. • While the Company does not provide bottom line guidance, it expects ongoing investments in people and technology, as well as certain one-time investments in our accounting processes and additional public company expenses to have a moderating effect on margin improvement in 2020. • To date, our business has been unaffected by uncertainty surrounding the impact of the coronavirus. While the underlying demand for homeowners and auto insurance is stable, management is taking actions it considers prudent to minimize impacts on our operations should conditions change.

Tailwinds

  • Total written premiums placed for 2020 are expected to be between $975 million and $1.035 billion, representing organic growth of 32% on the low end of the range to 40% on the high end of the range.
  • Total revenues for 2020 under ASC 606 revenue accounting are expected to be between $100 million and $105 million, representing organic growth of 29% on the low end of the range to 36% on the high end of the range.
  • Ongoing investments in people and technology are expected.
  • The underlying demand for homeowners and auto insurance is stable.
  • Management is taking actions it considers prudent to minimize impacts on our operations should conditions change.

Headwinds

  • The Company does not provide bottom line guidance.
  • Ongoing investments in people and technology are expected to have a moderating effect on margin improvement in 2020.
  • Certain one-time investments in our accounting processes are expected to have a moderating effect on margin improvement in 2020.
  • Additional public company expenses are expected to have a moderating effect on margin improvement in 2020.
  • Uncertainty surrounding the impact of the coronavirus.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

15 / 35 earnings

Positive

+25.8%

Q2 2024

Best reaction

-18.6%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+11.5%+7.4%-8.6%
Q4 2025-6.4%-9.5%-16.2%
Q3 2025+8.1%+7.8%+3.9%
Q2 2025-0.5%+2.4%-6.7%
Q1 2025-12.0%-9.4%+2.7%
Q4 2024+15.9%+16.6%+14.2%
Q3 2024+13.2%+14.6%+32.2%
Q2 2024+25.8%+31.1%+19.0%
Q1 2024-11.5%-5.3%+7.2%
Q4 2023-18.6%-15.2%-19.7%
Q3 2023-5.8%-7.8%+4.3%
Q2 2023+4.5%+0.7%-10.1%
Q1 2023+7.3%+5.7%+0.6%
Q4 2022+17.5%+15.7%+29.4%
Q3 2022+15.2%+20.1%+15.0%
Q2 2022+20.4%+12.4%+10.8%
Q1 2022-3.2%+0.3%-9.4%
Q4 2021-0.8%+1.7%-10.8%
Q3 2021-4.2%-9.8%-12.3%
Q2 2021-6.5%-5.2%+8.1%
Q1 2021-3.2%-10.2%-20.9%
Q4 2020-10.6%-21.7%-30.6%
Q3 2020+14.5%+15.6%+14.8%
Q2 2020+21.7%+25.0%+18.9%
Q1 2020-0.1%+1.3%+4.3%
Q4 2019+1.7%+5.1%-6.9%
Q3 2019-16.9%-14.4%-20.8%
Q2 2019-3.7%-2.6%+2.7%
Q1 2019+16.6%+11.6%+22.3%
Q4 2018-7.6%-6.1%-0.1%
Q3 2017-11.9%-21.3%-26.3%
Q3 2018-11.6%-21.7%-29.6%
Q2 2017-4.8%-3.2%+15.6%
Q2 2018-3.2%-0.4%+10.8%
Q1 2018+7.7%+21.5%+43.5%
Q4 2017
Q1 2017

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