NASDAQ$GSHD

Goosehead Insurance Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Total and core revenue increased, with written premium also seeing growth. Net income decreased, but adjusted EBITDA increased with margin expansion.

Goosehead Insurance reported strong growth in revenue and earnings for Q3 2022. Total revenues increased by 38% to $57.7 million, and core revenues grew by 39%. Total written premiums increased by 42% to $616 million. Net income decreased to $3.0 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 67% to $11.0 million with margin up over 320 basis points.

  • Total revenues grew organically 38% year-over-year to $57.7 million.
  • Core revenues increased 39% year-over-year to $51.9 million.
  • Net income decreased 43% to $3.0 million, with EPS decreasing 55% and adjusted EPS declining 8%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA grew 67% year-over-year to $11.0 million, with adjusted EBITDA margin increasing to 19%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$57.7M

Previous: $41.7M+38.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.24

Previous: $0.26-7.7%
Policies in Force

1.2M

Previous: 948.0K+30.6%
Client Retention

88.0%

Previous: 89.0%-1.1%
Premium Retention

98.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$14.8M

Previous: -$8.18M-80.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$12.8M

Previous: -$4.15M-208.6%
Net Income

$1.98M

Previous: $4.04M-51.0%
Operating Income

$3.79M

Previous: $3.54M+6.9%
Gross Profit

$57.7M

Previous: $41.7M+38.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$46.1M

Previous: $25.5M+80.7%
Total Assets

$324M

Previous: $247M+31.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.4M

Previous: $1.85M+191.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Goosehead Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$57.7M

Q3 2022+38.4%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Goosehead Insurance · $58M total across 3 segments · Q1 2023

  • Core Revenue
    $52M+42.4%
  • Cost Recovery Revenue
    $3.46M+32.3%
  • Ancillary Revenue
    $2.51M+16.2%

Forward guidance

The Company’s outlook for full year 2022 is as follows:

Tailwinds

  • Total written premiums placed for 2022 are expected to be between $2.176 billion and $2.215 billion, representing organic growth of 40% on the low end of the range to 42% on the high end of the range.
  • Total revenues for 2022 are expected to be between $194 million and $205 million, representing organic growth of 28% on the low end of the range to 35% on the high end of the range, driven by high levels of Core Revenue growth partly offset by lower than historical average contingent commissions of $7-10 million for the full year 2022 as our carriers continue to struggle with their underwriting profitability.
  • After a year of historical investments in people, technology, and real estate, Adjusted EBITDA Margin is expected to expand for the full year 2022.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

15 / 35 earnings

Positive

+25.8%

Q2 2024

Best reaction

-18.6%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+11.5%+7.4%-8.6%
Q4 2025-6.4%-9.5%-16.2%
Q3 2025+8.1%+7.8%+3.9%
Q2 2025-0.5%+2.4%-6.7%
Q1 2025-12.0%-9.4%+2.7%
Q4 2024+15.9%+16.6%+14.2%
Q3 2024+13.2%+14.6%+32.2%
Q2 2024+25.8%+31.1%+19.0%
Q1 2024-11.5%-5.3%+7.2%
Q4 2023-18.6%-15.2%-19.7%
Q3 2023-5.8%-7.8%+4.3%
Q2 2023+4.5%+0.7%-10.1%
Q1 2023+7.3%+5.7%+0.6%
Q4 2022+17.5%+15.7%+29.4%
Q3 2022+15.2%+20.1%+15.0%
Q2 2022+20.4%+12.4%+10.8%
Q1 2022-3.2%+0.3%-9.4%
Q4 2021-0.8%+1.7%-10.8%
Q3 2021-4.2%-9.8%-12.3%
Q2 2021-6.5%-5.2%+8.1%
Q1 2021-3.2%-10.2%-20.9%
Q4 2020-10.6%-21.7%-30.6%
Q3 2020+14.5%+15.6%+14.8%
Q2 2020+21.7%+25.0%+18.9%
Q1 2020-0.1%+1.3%+4.3%
Q4 2019+1.7%+5.1%-6.9%
Q3 2019-16.9%-14.4%-20.8%
Q2 2019-3.7%-2.6%+2.7%
Q1 2019+16.6%+11.6%+22.3%
Q4 2018-7.6%-6.1%-0.1%
Q3 2017-11.9%-21.3%-26.3%
Q3 2018-11.6%-21.7%-29.6%
Q2 2017-4.8%-3.2%+15.6%
Q2 2018-3.2%-0.4%+10.8%
Q1 2018+7.7%+21.5%+43.5%
Q4 2017
Q1 2017

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