NASDAQ$GSHD

Goosehead Insurance Inc · Q2 2022 earnings

Q2 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong growth in revenue and earnings, demonstrating the power and consistency of their platform.

Goosehead Insurance reported a 39% increase in total revenue to $53.0 million and a 42% increase in total written premium to $566 million. Net income decreased by 24% to $2.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 85% to $12.5 million.

  • Total Revenues grew organically 39% over the prior-year period to $53.0 million.
  • Total written premiums placed increased 42% over the prior-year period to $566 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA grew 85% over the prior-year period to $12.5 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Margin increased 6 points over the prior-year period to 24%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$53M

Previous: $38.2M+38.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.16

Previous: $0.13+23.1%
Policies in Force

1.2M

No prior period
Client Retention

89.0%

Previous: 89.0%+0.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$5.53M

Previous: -$7.93M+30.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$5.19M

Previous: -$6.84M+24.2%
Net Income

$342K

Previous: $1.09M-68.7%
Operating Income

$5.67M

Previous: $3.79M+49.7%
Gross Profit

$53M

Previous: $38.2M+38.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$31.1M

Previous: $35M-11.0%
Total Assets

$291M

Previous: $238M+22.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.17M

Previous: $1.85M+179.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Goosehead Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$53M

Q2 2022+38.9%vs Q2 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Goosehead Insurance · $53M total across 3 segments · Q2 2022

  • Core Revenue
    $48.1M
  • Cost Recovery Revenue
    $2.92M
  • Ancillary Revenue
    $2.03M

Forward guidance

The Company’s outlook for full year 2022 is as follows:

Tailwinds

  • Total written premiums placed for 2022 are expected to be between $2.152 billion and $2.215 billion, representing organic growth of 38% on the low end of the range to 42% on the high end of the range.
  • Total revenues for 2022 are expected to be between $194 million and $205 million, representing organic growth of 28% on the low end of the range to 35% on the high end of the range, driven by high levels of Core Revenue growth partly offset by lower than historical average contingent commissions of $8-10 million for the full year 2022 as our carriers continue to struggle with their underwriting profitability.
  • After a year of historical investments in people, technology, and real estate, Adjusted EBITDA Margin is expected to expand for the full year 2022.
  • Continued strong revenue growth is expected.
  • Expect to see gradual operating leverage emerge beyond 2022.

Headwinds

  • Carriers continue to struggle with their underwriting profitability.
  • Lower than historical average contingent commissions of $8-10 million for the full year 2022.
  • Ongoing macro headwinds.
  • Higher non-cash equity-based compensation expense.
  • Higher income tax expense.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2022

Historical avgQ2 2022

+1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

15 / 35 earnings

Positive

+25.8%

Q2 2024

Best reaction

-18.6%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+11.5%+7.4%-8.6%
Q4 2025-6.4%-9.5%-16.2%
Q3 2025+8.1%+7.8%+3.9%
Q2 2025-0.5%+2.4%-6.7%
Q1 2025-12.0%-9.4%+2.7%
Q4 2024+15.9%+16.6%+14.2%
Q3 2024+13.2%+14.6%+32.2%
Q2 2024+25.8%+31.1%+19.0%
Q1 2024-11.5%-5.3%+7.2%
Q4 2023-18.6%-15.2%-19.7%
Q3 2023-5.8%-7.8%+4.3%
Q2 2023+4.5%+0.7%-10.1%
Q1 2023+7.3%+5.7%+0.6%
Q4 2022+17.5%+15.7%+29.4%
Q3 2022+15.2%+20.1%+15.0%
Q2 2022+20.4%+12.4%+10.8%
Q1 2022-3.2%+0.3%-9.4%
Q4 2021-0.8%+1.7%-10.8%
Q3 2021-4.2%-9.8%-12.3%
Q2 2021-6.5%-5.2%+8.1%
Q1 2021-3.2%-10.2%-20.9%
Q4 2020-10.6%-21.7%-30.6%
Q3 2020+14.5%+15.6%+14.8%
Q2 2020+21.7%+25.0%+18.9%
Q1 2020-0.1%+1.3%+4.3%
Q4 2019+1.7%+5.1%-6.9%
Q3 2019-16.9%-14.4%-20.8%
Q2 2019-3.7%-2.6%+2.7%
Q1 2019+16.6%+11.6%+22.3%
Q4 2018-7.6%-6.1%-0.1%
Q3 2017-11.9%-21.3%-26.3%
Q3 2018-11.6%-21.7%-29.6%
Q2 2017-4.8%-3.2%+15.6%
Q2 2018-3.2%-0.4%+10.8%
Q1 2018+7.7%+21.5%+43.5%
Q4 2017
Q1 2017

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