NASDAQ$GSHD

Goosehead Insurance Inc · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Goosehead Insurance reported strong growth in total revenue, core revenue, and total written premium, driven by increases in corporate sales headcount and total franchises, along with a high client retention rate and the launch of the Digital Agent Platform.

Goosehead Insurance announced impressive Q3 2021 results, featuring a 30% increase in total revenues and a 41% increase in core revenues. The company also saw a 44% growth in total written premiums and a 44% increase in policies in force. The launch of their Digital Agent Platform was a highlight, contributing to a high net promoter score.

  • Total revenues increased by 30% to $41.7 million compared to the prior-year period.
  • Core revenues grew by 41% to $37.2 million compared to the prior-year period.
  • Total written premiums placed increased by 44% to $435 million from the prior-year period.
  • Policies in force grew by 44% to 948,000 from the prior-year period.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$41.7M

Previous: $32M+30.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.26

Previous: $0.17+52.9%
Policies in Force

948.0K

Previous: 657.0K+44.3%
Client Retention

89.0%

Previous: 88.0%+1.1%
Net Promoter Score

92

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$8.18M

Previous: -$4.77M-71.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$4.15M

Previous: -$1.5M-176.7%
Net Income

$4.04M

Previous: $3.27M+23.5%
Operating Income

$3.54M

Previous: $6.97M-49.2%
Gross Profit

$41.7M

Previous: $32M+30.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$25.5M

Previous: $20M+27.8%
Total Assets

$247M

Previous: $120M+106.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.85M

Previous: $1.42M+30.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Goosehead Insurance · Revenue · Quarterly

$41.7M

Q3 2021+30.2%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Goosehead Insurance · $58M total across 3 segments · Q1 2023

  • Core Revenue
    $52M+42.4%
  • Cost Recovery Revenue
    $3.46M+32.3%
  • Ancillary Revenue
    $2.51M+16.2%

Forward guidance

The Company is raising its full-year 2021 outlook with respect to total written premiums and revenue.

Tailwinds

  • Total written premiums placed for 2021 are expected to be between $1.54 billion and $1.56 billion, representing organic growth of 43% on the low end of the range to 45% on the high end of the range.
  • Total revenues for 2021 are expected to be between $149 million and $155 million, representing organic growth of 27% on the low end of the range to 32% on the high end of the range.
  • Prior guidance issued was for organic premium growth between 40% and 45%.
  • Prior guidance issued was for organic premium growth between 25% and 33%.
  • Company expects to continue to experience seasonality in our earnings throughout each year due to insurance sales patterns and recognition of contingent commissions, with the bulk of contingents realized in the fourth quarter.

Headwinds

  • Conditions impacting insurance carriers or other parties with which Goosehead does business
  • The economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
  • The loss of one or more key executives or an inability to attract and retain qualified personnel
  • The failure to attract and retain highly qualified franchisees
  • Larger employee compensation and benefits expenses related to ongoing investments in our corporate agents, agent support team, service agents, and information systems developers

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

+1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

15 / 35 earnings

Positive

+25.8%

Q2 2024

Best reaction

-18.6%

Q4 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+11.5%+7.4%-8.6%
Q4 2025-6.4%-9.5%-16.2%
Q3 2025+8.1%+7.8%+3.9%
Q2 2025-0.5%+2.4%-6.7%
Q1 2025-12.0%-9.4%+2.7%
Q4 2024+15.9%+16.6%+14.2%
Q3 2024+13.2%+14.6%+32.2%
Q2 2024+25.8%+31.1%+19.0%
Q1 2024-11.5%-5.3%+7.2%
Q4 2023-18.6%-15.2%-19.7%
Q3 2023-5.8%-7.8%+4.3%
Q2 2023+4.5%+0.7%-10.1%
Q1 2023+7.3%+5.7%+0.6%
Q4 2022+17.5%+15.7%+29.4%
Q3 2022+15.2%+20.1%+15.0%
Q2 2022+20.4%+12.4%+10.8%
Q1 2022-3.2%+0.3%-9.4%
Q4 2021-0.8%+1.7%-10.8%
Q3 2021-4.2%-9.8%-12.3%
Q2 2021-6.5%-5.2%+8.1%
Q1 2021-3.2%-10.2%-20.9%
Q4 2020-10.6%-21.7%-30.6%
Q3 2020+14.5%+15.6%+14.8%
Q2 2020+21.7%+25.0%+18.9%
Q1 2020-0.1%+1.3%+4.3%
Q4 2019+1.7%+5.1%-6.9%
Q3 2019-16.9%-14.4%-20.8%
Q2 2019-3.7%-2.6%+2.7%
Q1 2019+16.6%+11.6%+22.3%
Q4 2018-7.6%-6.1%-0.1%
Q3 2017-11.9%-21.3%-26.3%
Q3 2018-11.6%-21.7%-29.6%
Q2 2017-4.8%-3.2%+15.6%
Q2 2018-3.2%-0.4%+10.8%
Q1 2018+7.7%+21.5%+43.5%
Q4 2017
Q1 2017

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