NYSE$HCC
Warrior Met Coal Inc · Q4 2024 earnings
Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations
Briefing
Warrior Met Coal reported its fourth quarter and full year 2024 results, meeting or exceeding all guidance targets for the full year.
Warrior Met Coal reported a significant decrease in net income and adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, primarily due to lower steelmaking coal prices. Despite this, the company achieved increased sales and production volumes, with Mine 4 reaching record annual production. The Blue Creek growth project began production on time and on budget, contributing to the year's output.
- Net income for Q4 2024 was $1.1 million, a significant decrease from $128.9 million in Q4 2023.
- Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $53.2 million, down from $163.7 million in Q4 2023.
- Sales volumes increased by 23% to 1.9 million short tons in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023.
- The Blue Creek growth project commenced production on time and on budget, producing 209 thousand short tons for the year.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Warrior Met Coal · Revenue · Quarterly
$297M
Forward guidance
Warrior Met Coal's 2025 outlook anticipates continued strong production and sales volumes, with a focus on the Blue Creek project's development and contribution, despite expected weak market conditions.
Tailwinds
- Coal sales projected between 8.2 - 9.0 million short tons.
- Coal production projected between 7.8 - 8.6 million short tons.
- Blue Creek project expected to contribute approximately 1.0 million short tons of High Vol A steelmaking coal in 2025.
- Preparation plant expected to be completed in mid-2025, with longwall startup no later than Q2 2026.
- Sustaining capital expenditures for existing mines projected between $90 - $100 million.
Headwinds
- Three planned longwall moves (one in Q2 and two in Q3) may impact production.
- HCC index pricing, geography of sales, and freight rates are key factors that may affect outlook.
- Exclusion of other non-recurring costs from guidance.
- New labor contract negotiations could impact operations.
- Inflationary pressures may affect costs.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024
-1.6%
Avg return
Earnings day
-1.1%
Avg return
5 days after
+0.2%
Avg return
30 days after
41%
15 / 37 earnings
Positive
+23.8%
Q3 2025
Best reaction
-21.7%
Q4 2020
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -0.0% | -2.6% | +5.1% | |
| Q4 2025 | +0.2% | +1.1% | -1.1% | |
| Q3 2025 | +23.8% | +24.8% | +23.5% | |
| Q1 2025 | -5.0% | -0.5% | -5.0% | |
| Q4 2024 | -8.4% | -7.8% | -9.0% | |
| Q3 2024 | +1.4% | +5.3% | +12.9% | |
| Q2 2024 | -10.2% | -12.0% | -11.3% | |
| Q1 2024 | -4.2% | -5.3% | +0.1% | |
| Q4 2023 | -1.3% | -3.1% | -9.7% | |
| Q3 2023 | -0.1% | +0.7% | +19.8% | |
| Q2 2023 | -14.7% | -8.7% | -8.0% | |
| Q1 2023 | +6.5% | +14.6% | +4.5% | |
| Q4 2022 | +1.6% | +5.8% | -15.8% | |
| Q3 2022 | -1.5% | -0.0% | +1.6% | |
| Q2 2022 | -11.4% | -7.0% | -0.8% | |
| Q1 2022 | -9.3% | -11.2% | +2.4% | |
| Q4 2021 | +0.3% | +0.8% | +22.2% | |
| Q3 2021 | -3.5% | -7.7% | -10.1% | |
| Q2 2021 | -1.9% | -10.7% | +27.0% | |
| Q1 2021 | -5.1% | -9.0% | +11.5% | |
| Q4 2020 | -21.7% | -23.2% | -32.5% | |
| Q3 2020 | -2.6% | +6.7% | +25.1% | |
| Q2 2020 | -5.9% | -1.7% | +6.7% | |
| Q1 2020 | +7.6% | +15.4% | +20.8% | |
| Q4 2019 | -14.2% | -16.7% | -42.7% | |
| Q3 2019 | -15.2% | -10.8% | -10.7% | |
| Q2 2019 | -13.6% | -14.1% | -16.4% | |
| Q1 2019 | +6.2% | -8.5% | -16.7% | |
| Q4 2018 | +2.6% | +1.9% | -1.7% | |
| Q3 2018 | -3.5% | -4.0% | -13.7% | |
| Q2 2018 | -3.5% | -3.6% | -7.0% | |
| Q1 2018 | +12.3% | +14.8% | +22.4% | |
| Q4 2016 | +10.7% | +9.0% | +4.7% | |
| Q4 2017 | +10.7% | +9.0% | +4.7% | |
| Q3 2017 | +4.2% | +5.7% | -8.4% | |
| Q2 2017 | +6.5% | +8.2% | +20.2% | |
| Q1 2017 | +4.2% | +5.0% | -7.0% | |
| Q3 2016 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2016 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2016 | — | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | — | — | — |
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