NYSE$HCC

Warrior Met Coal Inc · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Warrior Met Coal reported its fourth quarter and full year 2024 results, meeting or exceeding all guidance targets for the full year.

Warrior Met Coal reported a significant decrease in net income and adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, primarily due to lower steelmaking coal prices. Despite this, the company achieved increased sales and production volumes, with Mine 4 reaching record annual production. The Blue Creek growth project began production on time and on budget, contributing to the year's output.

  • Net income for Q4 2024 was $1.1 million, a significant decrease from $128.9 million in Q4 2023.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $53.2 million, down from $163.7 million in Q4 2023.
  • Sales volumes increased by 23% to 1.9 million short tons in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023.
  • The Blue Creek growth project commenced production on time and on budget, producing 209 thousand short tons for the year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$297M

Previous: $365M-18.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.15

Previous: $2.49-94.0%
Tons sold

1.9M

Previous: 1.5M+23.1%
Tons produced

2.1M

Previous: 2.0M+7.0%
Average net selling price

$154.54

Previous: $234.56-34.1%
Cash cost of sales (FOB) per ton

$119.55

Previous: $120.69-0.9%
Cash cost of sales (FOB)

$226M

Previous: $185M+21.9%
Cash margin per ton

$34.99

Previous: $113.87-69.3%
Adjusted EBITDA

$53.2M

Previous: $164M-67.5%
Adjusted EBITDA margin

17.9%

Previous: 45.0%-60.2%
Adjusted EBITDA per short ton

$28.20

Previous: $106.78-73.6%
Gross selling price realization

86.0%

No prior period
Net Income

$1.14M

Previous: $129M-99.1%
Operating Income

-$4.21M

Previous: $134M-103.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Warrior Met Coal · Revenue · Quarterly

$297M

Q4 2024-18.5%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Warrior Met Coal's 2025 outlook anticipates continued strong production and sales volumes, with a focus on the Blue Creek project's development and contribution, despite expected weak market conditions.

Tailwinds

  • Coal sales projected between 8.2 - 9.0 million short tons.
  • Coal production projected between 7.8 - 8.6 million short tons.
  • Blue Creek project expected to contribute approximately 1.0 million short tons of High Vol A steelmaking coal in 2025.
  • Preparation plant expected to be completed in mid-2025, with longwall startup no later than Q2 2026.
  • Sustaining capital expenditures for existing mines projected between $90 - $100 million.

Headwinds

  • Three planned longwall moves (one in Q2 and two in Q3) may impact production.
  • HCC index pricing, geography of sales, and freight rates are key factors that may affect outlook.
  • Exclusion of other non-recurring costs from guidance.
  • New labor contract negotiations could impact operations.
  • Inflationary pressures may affect costs.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

15 / 37 earnings

Positive

+23.8%

Q3 2025

Best reaction

-21.7%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%-2.6%+5.1%
Q4 2025+0.2%+1.1%-1.1%
Q3 2025+23.8%+24.8%+23.5%
Q1 2025-5.0%-0.5%-5.0%
Q4 2024-8.4%-7.8%-9.0%
Q3 2024+1.4%+5.3%+12.9%
Q2 2024-10.2%-12.0%-11.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2023-1.3%-3.1%-9.7%
Q3 2023-0.1%+0.7%+19.8%
Q2 2023-14.7%-8.7%-8.0%
Q1 2023+6.5%+14.6%+4.5%
Q4 2022+1.6%+5.8%-15.8%
Q3 2022-1.5%-0.0%+1.6%
Q2 2022-11.4%-7.0%-0.8%
Q1 2022-9.3%-11.2%+2.4%
Q4 2021+0.3%+0.8%+22.2%
Q3 2021-3.5%-7.7%-10.1%
Q2 2021-1.9%-10.7%+27.0%
Q1 2021-5.1%-9.0%+11.5%
Q4 2020-21.7%-23.2%-32.5%
Q3 2020-2.6%+6.7%+25.1%
Q2 2020-5.9%-1.7%+6.7%
Q1 2020+7.6%+15.4%+20.8%
Q4 2019-14.2%-16.7%-42.7%
Q3 2019-15.2%-10.8%-10.7%
Q2 2019-13.6%-14.1%-16.4%
Q1 2019+6.2%-8.5%-16.7%
Q4 2018+2.6%+1.9%-1.7%
Q3 2018-3.5%-4.0%-13.7%
Q2 2018-3.5%-3.6%-7.0%
Q1 2018+12.3%+14.8%+22.4%
Q4 2016+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q4 2017+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q3 2017+4.2%+5.7%-8.4%
Q2 2017+6.5%+8.2%+20.2%
Q1 2017+4.2%+5.0%-7.0%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro