NYSE$HCC

Warrior Met Coal Inc · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Achieved net income and produced first development tons at Blue Creek within budget and on schedule.

Warrior Met Coal reported a net income of $41.8 million, or $0.80 per diluted share, for Q3 2024, a decrease from $85.4 million, or $1.64 per diluted share, in Q3 2023. The company also produced the first development tons at its Blue Creek project.

  • Commenced continuous miner development of the first longwall panel at the Blue Creek growth project, producing 39 thousand short tons.
  • Completed the installation of key infrastructure at Blue Creek, including the service cage, slope belt, and raw coal belt.
  • Invested $93.8 million in the continued development of Blue Creek, bringing the total project spend to $612.4 million.
  • Generated $62.2 million of cash from operating activities despite weaker global demand and a decrease in the Platts Premium Low Vol FOB Australian index price.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$328M

Previous: $423M-22.6%
EPS

$0.80

Previous: $1.85-56.8%
Tons sold

1.9M

No prior period
Tons produced

1.9M

No prior period
Average net selling price

$171.92

Previous: $184.71-6.9%
Cash cost of sales (FOB) per ton

$123.45

No prior period
Cash cost of sales (FOB)

$230M

No prior period
Cash margin per ton

$48.47

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$78.5M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA margin

24.0%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA per short ton

$42.18

No prior period
Gross selling price realization

93.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$346M

Previous: -$107M-224.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$304M

Previous: -$21.1M-1339.3%
Net Income

$41.8M

Previous: $85.4M-51.1%
Operating Income

$39.1M

Previous: $108M-63.7%
Gross Profit

$96.1M

Previous: $163M-41.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$583M

Previous: $687M-15.1%
Total Assets

$2.58B

Previous: $2.22B+16.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$874K

Previous: $2.2M-60.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Warrior Met Coal · Revenue · Quarterly

$328M

Q3 2024-22.6%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company re-affirmed its guidance for the full year 2024, which is subject to various market and economic risks.

Tailwinds

  • Coal sales of 7.4 - 8.2 million short tons
  • Coal production of 7.4 - 8.0 million short tons
  • Capital expenditures for existing mines of $100 - $110 million
  • Mine development costs of $28 - $38 million
  • Interest income of $20 - $25 million

Headwinds

  • Two planned longwall moves remaining in Q4
  • HCC index pricing, geography of sales and freight rates
  • Exclusion of other non-recurring costs
  • Terms of any new labor contract
  • Inflationary pressures

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

15 / 37 earnings

Positive

+23.8%

Q3 2025

Best reaction

-21.7%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%-2.6%+5.1%
Q4 2025+0.2%+1.1%-1.1%
Q3 2025+23.8%+24.8%+23.5%
Q1 2025-5.0%-0.5%-5.0%
Q4 2024-8.4%-7.8%-9.0%
Q3 2024+1.4%+5.3%+12.9%
Q2 2024-10.2%-12.0%-11.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2023-1.3%-3.1%-9.7%
Q3 2023-0.1%+0.7%+19.8%
Q2 2023-14.7%-8.7%-8.0%
Q1 2023+6.5%+14.6%+4.5%
Q4 2022+1.6%+5.8%-15.8%
Q3 2022-1.5%-0.0%+1.6%
Q2 2022-11.4%-7.0%-0.8%
Q1 2022-9.3%-11.2%+2.4%
Q4 2021+0.3%+0.8%+22.2%
Q3 2021-3.5%-7.7%-10.1%
Q2 2021-1.9%-10.7%+27.0%
Q1 2021-5.1%-9.0%+11.5%
Q4 2020-21.7%-23.2%-32.5%
Q3 2020-2.6%+6.7%+25.1%
Q2 2020-5.9%-1.7%+6.7%
Q1 2020+7.6%+15.4%+20.8%
Q4 2019-14.2%-16.7%-42.7%
Q3 2019-15.2%-10.8%-10.7%
Q2 2019-13.6%-14.1%-16.4%
Q1 2019+6.2%-8.5%-16.7%
Q4 2018+2.6%+1.9%-1.7%
Q3 2018-3.5%-4.0%-13.7%
Q2 2018-3.5%-3.6%-7.0%
Q1 2018+12.3%+14.8%+22.4%
Q4 2016+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q4 2017+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q3 2017+4.2%+5.7%-8.4%
Q2 2017+6.5%+8.2%+20.2%
Q1 2017+4.2%+5.0%-7.0%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015

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