NYSE$HCC

Warrior Met Coal Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported net income of $98.4 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $171.6 million, achieving record total liquidity of $869.0 million.

Warrior Met Coal reported a strong third quarter in 2022, with net income reaching $98.4 million and Adjusted EBITDA at $171.6 million. The company achieved record total liquidity of $869.0 million, driven by efficient operations and high-quality assets, despite facing shipment delays and macroeconomic headwinds.

  • Net income for the third quarter of 2022 was $98.4 million, or $1.90 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted EBITDA reached $171.6 million in the third quarter of 2022.
  • Sales volume was 1.5 million short tons, and production was 1.6 million short tons of met coal.
  • Total liquidity reached a record high of $869.0 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$390M

Previous: $202M+92.7%
EPS (adj)

$2.10

Previous: $0.97+116.5%
Average net selling price

$248.13

Previous: $188.62+31.6%
Adjusted EBITDA margin

44.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$41.3M

Previous: -$10.5M-293.6%
Free Cash Flow

$57.1M

Previous: $27.9M+104.4%
Net Income

$98.4M

Previous: $38.4M+156.1%
Operating Income

$124M

Previous: $51.2M+142.8%
Gross Profit

$187M

Previous: $110M+69.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$746M

Previous: $268M+177.8%
Total Assets

$1.94B

Previous: $1.34B+43.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.6M

Previous: $1.52M+70.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Warrior Met Coal · Revenue · Quarterly

$390M

Q3 2022+92.7%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Warrior updated its guidance for the full year 2022, which we expect to be further impacted in the fourth quarter by the continued shipment delays and other factors noted below.

Tailwinds

  • Significant coal inventories
  • Record total liquidity
  • Gradual improvements in shipping delays during the final few weeks of the quarter
  • Expectation of shipping delays to continue improving in the fourth quarter
  • Strong demand from customers and constrained global met coal supply

Headwinds

  • Continued shipment delays
  • One planned longwall move (Q4)
  • HCC index pricing
  • New labor contract
  • Inflationary pressures

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

15 / 37 earnings

Positive

+23.8%

Q3 2025

Best reaction

-21.7%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%-2.6%+5.1%
Q4 2025+0.2%+1.1%-1.1%
Q3 2025+23.8%+24.8%+23.5%
Q1 2025-5.0%-0.5%-5.0%
Q4 2024-8.4%-7.8%-9.0%
Q3 2024+1.4%+5.3%+12.9%
Q2 2024-10.2%-12.0%-11.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2023-1.3%-3.1%-9.7%
Q3 2023-0.1%+0.7%+19.8%
Q2 2023-14.7%-8.7%-8.0%
Q1 2023+6.5%+14.6%+4.5%
Q4 2022+1.6%+5.8%-15.8%
Q3 2022-1.5%-0.0%+1.6%
Q2 2022-11.4%-7.0%-0.8%
Q1 2022-9.3%-11.2%+2.4%
Q4 2021+0.3%+0.8%+22.2%
Q3 2021-3.5%-7.7%-10.1%
Q2 2021-1.9%-10.7%+27.0%
Q1 2021-5.1%-9.0%+11.5%
Q4 2020-21.7%-23.2%-32.5%
Q3 2020-2.6%+6.7%+25.1%
Q2 2020-5.9%-1.7%+6.7%
Q1 2020+7.6%+15.4%+20.8%
Q4 2019-14.2%-16.7%-42.7%
Q3 2019-15.2%-10.8%-10.7%
Q2 2019-13.6%-14.1%-16.4%
Q1 2019+6.2%-8.5%-16.7%
Q4 2018+2.6%+1.9%-1.7%
Q3 2018-3.5%-4.0%-13.7%
Q2 2018-3.5%-3.6%-7.0%
Q1 2018+12.3%+14.8%+22.4%
Q4 2016+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q4 2017+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q3 2017+4.2%+5.7%-8.4%
Q2 2017+6.5%+8.2%+20.2%
Q1 2017+4.2%+5.0%-7.0%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015

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