NYSE$HCC

Warrior Met Coal Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Warrior Met Coal reported a strong first quarter in 2023 with increased net income and adjusted EBITDA.

Warrior Met Coal reported a strong first quarter with net income increasing by 25% to $182.3 million and Adjusted EBITDA rising by 6% to $259.4 million. The company achieved record total liquidity of $985.8 million, driven by strong customer demand and improved performance at the Port of Mobile.

  • Net income increased by 25% to $182.3 million compared to Q1 2022.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 6% to $259.4 million compared to Q1 2022.
  • Sales volume increased by 73% to 1.9 million short tons due to improved port performance and increased production.
  • The company achieved record total liquidity of $985.8 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$510M

Previous: $379M+34.6%
EPS (adj)

$3.57

Previous: $2.97+20.2%
Average net selling price

$256.93

Previous: $339.34-24.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$68.2M

Previous: -$10.5M-547.6%
Free Cash Flow

$114M

Previous: $136M-15.9%
Net Income

$182M

Previous: $146M+24.6%
Operating Income

$210M

Previous: $187M+12.2%
Gross Profit

$277M

Previous: $243M+13.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$863M

Previous: $434M+98.7%
Total Assets

$2.15B

Previous: $1.64B+30.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$7.7M

Previous: $7.22M+6.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Warrior Met Coal · Revenue · Quarterly

$510M

Q1 2023+34.6%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company's outlook and guidance for 2023 is subject to many risks that may impact performance, including labor matters, ongoing mechanical issues at the McDuffie Terminal at the Port of Mobile, ongoing rail transportation issues, market conditions in the steel and met coal industries and overall global economic and competitive conditions.

Tailwinds

  • Coal sales between 6.6 - 7.2 million short tons
  • Coal production between 6.3 - 6.9 million short tons
  • Capital expenditures for existing mines between $95 - $105 million
  • Blue Creek project and other discretionary capital expenditures between $325 - $345 million
  • Mine development costs between $10 - $14 million

Headwinds

  • Two planned longwall moves (both Q3)
  • HCC index pricing
  • Exclusion of other non-recurring costs
  • New labor contract
  • Inflationary pressures

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

15 / 37 earnings

Positive

+23.8%

Q3 2025

Best reaction

-21.7%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%-2.6%+5.1%
Q4 2025+0.2%+1.1%-1.1%
Q3 2025+23.8%+24.8%+23.5%
Q1 2025-5.0%-0.5%-5.0%
Q4 2024-8.4%-7.8%-9.0%
Q3 2024+1.4%+5.3%+12.9%
Q2 2024-10.2%-12.0%-11.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2023-1.3%-3.1%-9.7%
Q3 2023-0.1%+0.7%+19.8%
Q2 2023-14.7%-8.7%-8.0%
Q1 2023+6.5%+14.6%+4.5%
Q4 2022+1.6%+5.8%-15.8%
Q3 2022-1.5%-0.0%+1.6%
Q2 2022-11.4%-7.0%-0.8%
Q1 2022-9.3%-11.2%+2.4%
Q4 2021+0.3%+0.8%+22.2%
Q3 2021-3.5%-7.7%-10.1%
Q2 2021-1.9%-10.7%+27.0%
Q1 2021-5.1%-9.0%+11.5%
Q4 2020-21.7%-23.2%-32.5%
Q3 2020-2.6%+6.7%+25.1%
Q2 2020-5.9%-1.7%+6.7%
Q1 2020+7.6%+15.4%+20.8%
Q4 2019-14.2%-16.7%-42.7%
Q3 2019-15.2%-10.8%-10.7%
Q2 2019-13.6%-14.1%-16.4%
Q1 2019+6.2%-8.5%-16.7%
Q4 2018+2.6%+1.9%-1.7%
Q3 2018-3.5%-4.0%-13.7%
Q2 2018-3.5%-3.6%-7.0%
Q1 2018+12.3%+14.8%+22.4%
Q4 2016+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q4 2017+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q3 2017+4.2%+5.7%-8.4%
Q2 2017+6.5%+8.2%+20.2%
Q1 2017+4.2%+5.0%-7.0%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015

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