NYSE$HCC

Warrior Met Coal Inc · Q1 2022 earnings

Q1 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong net income and record adjusted EBITDA.

Warrior Met Coal reported a strong first quarter in 2022, with a net income of $146.2 million and a record adjusted EBITDA of $243.8 million. The company benefited from increased met coal pricing, which offset lower sales volume.

  • Net income was $146.2 million, or $2.83 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $21.4 million, or $0.42 per diluted share, in Q1 2021.
  • Adjusted EBITDA reached an all-time quarterly high of $243.8 million, compared to $47.1 million in Q1 2021.
  • Total revenues were $378.7 million, including $382.4 million in mining revenues, compared to $213.8 million in Q1 2021.
  • The company is relaunching the development of its Blue Creek mine, expecting significant future returns to shareholders.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$379M

Previous: $214M+77.1%
EPS (adj)

$2.97

Previous: $0.08+3612.5%
Tons sold

1.1K

Previous: 2.0M-99.9%
Tons produced

1.5K

Previous: 2.2M-99.9%
Average net selling price

$339.34

Previous: $106.04+220.0%
Adjusted EBITDA margin

64.4%

Previous: 22.1%+191.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$10.5M

Previous: -$9.48M-11.1%
Free Cash Flow

$136M

Previous: -$30.8M+540.2%
Net Income

$146M

Previous: -$21.4M+784.8%
Operating Income

$187M

Previous: $11.1M+1586.5%
Gross Profit

$243M

Previous: $59.4M+309.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$434M

Previous: $222M+95.6%
Total Assets

$1.64B

Previous: $1.38B+19.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$7.22M

Previous: $1.7M+325.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Warrior Met Coal · Revenue · Quarterly

$379M

Q1 2022+77.1%vs Q1 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Warrior is revising its full year 2022 guidance based on its successful Q1 performance, the relaunch of the Blue Creek project, and expected market conditions.

Tailwinds

  • Coal sales are expected to be between 5.5 and 6.5 million short tons.
  • Coal production is expected to be between 5.5 and 6.5 million short tons.
  • Capital expenditures are projected to be $165 - $175 million.
  • Mine development costs are estimated at $30 - $40 million.
  • Selling, general and administrative expenses are expected to be $37 - $41 million.

Headwinds

  • Three planned longwall moves (Q2, Q3, Q4) may affect the outlook.
  • HCC index pricing fluctuations could influence results.
  • Exclusion of other non-recurring costs needs to be considered.
  • A new labor contract is a key factor that may affect the outlook.
  • Inflationary pressures may impact performance.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2022

Historical avgQ1 2022

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

15 / 37 earnings

Positive

+23.8%

Q3 2025

Best reaction

-21.7%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%-2.6%+5.1%
Q4 2025+0.2%+1.1%-1.1%
Q3 2025+23.8%+24.8%+23.5%
Q1 2025-5.0%-0.5%-5.0%
Q4 2024-8.4%-7.8%-9.0%
Q3 2024+1.4%+5.3%+12.9%
Q2 2024-10.2%-12.0%-11.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2023-1.3%-3.1%-9.7%
Q3 2023-0.1%+0.7%+19.8%
Q2 2023-14.7%-8.7%-8.0%
Q1 2023+6.5%+14.6%+4.5%
Q4 2022+1.6%+5.8%-15.8%
Q3 2022-1.5%-0.0%+1.6%
Q2 2022-11.4%-7.0%-0.8%
Q1 2022-9.3%-11.2%+2.4%
Q4 2021+0.3%+0.8%+22.2%
Q3 2021-3.5%-7.7%-10.1%
Q2 2021-1.9%-10.7%+27.0%
Q1 2021-5.1%-9.0%+11.5%
Q4 2020-21.7%-23.2%-32.5%
Q3 2020-2.6%+6.7%+25.1%
Q2 2020-5.9%-1.7%+6.7%
Q1 2020+7.6%+15.4%+20.8%
Q4 2019-14.2%-16.7%-42.7%
Q3 2019-15.2%-10.8%-10.7%
Q2 2019-13.6%-14.1%-16.4%
Q1 2019+6.2%-8.5%-16.7%
Q4 2018+2.6%+1.9%-1.7%
Q3 2018-3.5%-4.0%-13.7%
Q2 2018-3.5%-3.6%-7.0%
Q1 2018+12.3%+14.8%+22.4%
Q4 2016+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q4 2017+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q3 2017+4.2%+5.7%-8.4%
Q2 2017+6.5%+8.2%+20.2%
Q1 2017+4.2%+5.0%-7.0%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015

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