NYSE$HCC

Warrior Met Coal Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong results despite shipment delays and lower average net selling prices.

Warrior Met Coal reported a net income of $99.7 million for Q4 2022, with an adjusted net income of $1.90 per diluted share. The company faced shipment delays due to mechanical failures and bad weather, leading to higher inventories and lower shipment volumes. Despite these challenges, customer demand and coal prices remained firm.

  • Delivered strong results despite shipment delays.
  • Customer demand and coal prices held firm despite lower steel production globally.
  • Posted strong net income, record operating cash flows and set Company records for Adjusted EBITDA.
  • Current liquidity is at a record high.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$345M

Previous: $416M-17.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.90

Previous: $3.17-40.1%
Tons sold

1.5M

Previous: 1.4M+0.2%
Tons produced

1.5M

Previous: 1.1M+32.5%
Average net selling price

$227.21

Previous: $273.84-17.0%
Capital Expenditures

$85.2M

Previous: $23.7M+258.9%
Free Cash Flow

$96.5M

Previous: $151M-36.1%
Net Income

$99.7M

Previous: $138M-28.0%
Operating Income

$118M

Previous: $184M-36.2%
Gross Profit

$163M

Previous: $254M-35.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$830M

Previous: $396M+109.6%
Total Assets

$2.03B

Previous: $1.46B+38.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.37M

Previous: $607K+455.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Warrior Met Coal · Revenue · Quarterly

$345M

Q4 2022-17%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company's outlook for 2023 is subject to many risks that may impact performance, such as the labor strike, ongoing mechanical issues at the McDuffie Terminal at the Port of Mobile, ongoing rail transportation issues, market conditions in the steel and met coal industries and overall global economic and competitive conditions

Tailwinds

  • Coal sales of 6.6 - 7.2 million short tons
  • Coal production of 6.3 - 6.9 million short tons
  • Capital expenditures for sustaining existing mines of $95 - $105 million
  • Blue Creek project and other discretionary capital expenditures of $325 - $345 million
  • Mine development costs of $10 - $14 million

Headwinds

  • Four planned longwall moves (Q1, Q2, and Q3 has two moves)
  • HCC index pricing
  • Exclusion of other non-recurring costs
  • New labor contract
  • Inflationary pressures

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

15 / 37 earnings

Positive

+23.8%

Q3 2025

Best reaction

-21.7%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%-2.6%+5.1%
Q4 2025+0.2%+1.1%-1.1%
Q3 2025+23.8%+24.8%+23.5%
Q1 2025-5.0%-0.5%-5.0%
Q4 2024-8.4%-7.8%-9.0%
Q3 2024+1.4%+5.3%+12.9%
Q2 2024-10.2%-12.0%-11.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2023-1.3%-3.1%-9.7%
Q3 2023-0.1%+0.7%+19.8%
Q2 2023-14.7%-8.7%-8.0%
Q1 2023+6.5%+14.6%+4.5%
Q4 2022+1.6%+5.8%-15.8%
Q3 2022-1.5%-0.0%+1.6%
Q2 2022-11.4%-7.0%-0.8%
Q1 2022-9.3%-11.2%+2.4%
Q4 2021+0.3%+0.8%+22.2%
Q3 2021-3.5%-7.7%-10.1%
Q2 2021-1.9%-10.7%+27.0%
Q1 2021-5.1%-9.0%+11.5%
Q4 2020-21.7%-23.2%-32.5%
Q3 2020-2.6%+6.7%+25.1%
Q2 2020-5.9%-1.7%+6.7%
Q1 2020+7.6%+15.4%+20.8%
Q4 2019-14.2%-16.7%-42.7%
Q3 2019-15.2%-10.8%-10.7%
Q2 2019-13.6%-14.1%-16.4%
Q1 2019+6.2%-8.5%-16.7%
Q4 2018+2.6%+1.9%-1.7%
Q3 2018-3.5%-4.0%-13.7%
Q2 2018-3.5%-3.6%-7.0%
Q1 2018+12.3%+14.8%+22.4%
Q4 2016+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q4 2017+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q3 2017+4.2%+5.7%-8.4%
Q2 2017+6.5%+8.2%+20.2%
Q1 2017+4.2%+5.0%-7.0%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015

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