NYSE$HCC

Warrior Met Coal Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Warrior Met Coal reported strong Q4 2023 results, driven by increased production and sales volumes, and made significant progress in developing its Blue Creek growth project.

Warrior Met Coal reported Q4 2023 net income of $128.9 million, or $2.47 per diluted share, compared to net income of $99.7 million, or $1.93 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2022. The Company reported Adjusted EBITDA of $163.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to Adjusted EBITDA of $147.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.

  • Achieved net income of $128.9 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $163.7 million in the fourth quarter.
  • Recorded a 34% increase in sales volumes and a 21% increase in production volumes for the full year.
  • Generated $701.1 million of cash from operating activities during 2023.
  • Made excellent progress in developing the Blue Creek growth project, investing $127.8 million in the fourth quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$365M

Previous: $345M+5.9%
EPS (adj)

$2.49

Previous: $1.90+31.1%
Tons sold

1.5M

Previous: 1.5M+5.6%
Tons produced

2.0M

Previous: 1.5M+34.2%
Average net selling price

$234.56

Previous: $227.21+3.2%
Cash cost of sales (FOB) per ton

$120.69

No prior period
Cash cost of sales (FOB)

$185M

No prior period
Cash margin per ton

$113.87

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$164M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA margin

45.0%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA per short ton

$106.78

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$182M

Previous: $85.2M-314.1%
Net Income

$129M

Previous: $99.7M+29.3%
Operating Income

$134M

Previous: $118M+13.6%
Gross Profit

$147M

Previous: $163M-10.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.73M

Previous: $3.37M+10.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Warrior Met Coal · Revenue · Quarterly

$365M

Q4 2023+5.9%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company's outlook for 2024 is subject to many risks that may impact performance, such as market conditions in the steel and steelmaking coal industries and overall global economic and competitive conditions.

Tailwinds

  • Coal sales between 7.4 - 8.2 million short tons
  • Coal production between 7.4 - 8.0 million short tons
  • Capital expenditures for sustaining existing mines $100 - $110 million
  • Blue Creek project and other discretionary capital expenditures $335 - $390 million
  • Mine development costs $28 - $38 million

Headwinds

  • Four planned longwall moves (Q1, Q3, and Q4 has two moves)
  • HCC index pricing, geography of sales and freight rates
  • Exclusion of other non-recurring costs
  • New labor contract
  • Inflationary pressures

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

15 / 37 earnings

Positive

+23.8%

Q3 2025

Best reaction

-21.7%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%-2.6%+5.1%
Q4 2025+0.2%+1.1%-1.1%
Q3 2025+23.8%+24.8%+23.5%
Q1 2025-5.0%-0.5%-5.0%
Q4 2024-8.4%-7.8%-9.0%
Q3 2024+1.4%+5.3%+12.9%
Q2 2024-10.2%-12.0%-11.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2023-1.3%-3.1%-9.7%
Q3 2023-0.1%+0.7%+19.8%
Q2 2023-14.7%-8.7%-8.0%
Q1 2023+6.5%+14.6%+4.5%
Q4 2022+1.6%+5.8%-15.8%
Q3 2022-1.5%-0.0%+1.6%
Q2 2022-11.4%-7.0%-0.8%
Q1 2022-9.3%-11.2%+2.4%
Q4 2021+0.3%+0.8%+22.2%
Q3 2021-3.5%-7.7%-10.1%
Q2 2021-1.9%-10.7%+27.0%
Q1 2021-5.1%-9.0%+11.5%
Q4 2020-21.7%-23.2%-32.5%
Q3 2020-2.6%+6.7%+25.1%
Q2 2020-5.9%-1.7%+6.7%
Q1 2020+7.6%+15.4%+20.8%
Q4 2019-14.2%-16.7%-42.7%
Q3 2019-15.2%-10.8%-10.7%
Q2 2019-13.6%-14.1%-16.4%
Q1 2019+6.2%-8.5%-16.7%
Q4 2018+2.6%+1.9%-1.7%
Q3 2018-3.5%-4.0%-13.7%
Q2 2018-3.5%-3.6%-7.0%
Q1 2018+12.3%+14.8%+22.4%
Q4 2016+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q4 2017+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q3 2017+4.2%+5.7%-8.4%
Q2 2017+6.5%+8.2%+20.2%
Q1 2017+4.2%+5.0%-7.0%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015

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