NYSE$HCC

Warrior Met Coal Inc · Q1 2024 earnings

Q1 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong Q1 2024 performance driven by operational improvements and progress in the Blue Creek project.

Warrior Met Coal reported a net income of $137.0 million for Q1 2024, with sales volumes up by 9% and production volumes up by 17%. The company invested $68.5 million in the Blue Creek project and returned $30.6 million to stockholders through dividends.

  • Achieved net income of $137.0 million and adjusted EBITDA of $200.2 million.
  • Sales volumes increased by 9% and production volumes increased by 17%.
  • Invested $68.5 million in the continued development of the Blue Creek growth project.
  • Returned $30.6 million to stockholders through quarterly dividend and special cash dividend.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$504M

Previous: $510M-1.2%
EPS

$2.62

Previous: $3.57-26.6%
Tons sold

2.1M

No prior period
Tons produced

2.1M

No prior period
Average net selling price

$233.91

Previous: $256.93-9.0%
Cash cost of sales (FOB) per ton

$133.48

No prior period
Cash cost of sales (FOB)

$284M

No prior period
Cash margin per ton

$100.43

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$200M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA margin

39.8%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA per short ton

$94.03

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$102M

Previous: -$68.2M-49.2%
Free Cash Flow

$35.3M

Previous: $114M-69.1%
Net Income

$137M

Previous: $182M-24.8%
Operating Income

$149M

Previous: $210M-28.9%
Gross Profit

$218M

Previous: $277M-21.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$694M

Previous: $863M-19.6%
Total Assets

$2.48B

Previous: $2.15B+15.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$9.15M

Previous: $7.7M+18.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Warrior Met Coal · Revenue · Quarterly

$504M

Q1 2024-1.2%vs Q1 2023
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company re-affirmed its outlook for 2024.

Tailwinds

  • Coal sales: 7.4 - 8.2 million short tons
  • Coal production: 7.4 - 8.0 million short tons
  • Capital expenditures for existing mines: $100 - $110 million
  • Blue Creek project and other discretionary capital expenditures: $335 - $390 million
  • Mine development costs: $28 - $38 million

Headwinds

  • Three planned longwall moves remaining (two in Q3 and one in Q4)
  • HCC index pricing, geography of sales and freight rates
  • Exclusion of other non-recurring costs
  • Terms of any new labor contract
  • Inflationary pressures

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2024

Historical avgQ1 2024

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.2%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

15 / 37 earnings

Positive

+23.8%

Q3 2025

Best reaction

-21.7%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%-2.6%+5.1%
Q4 2025+0.2%+1.1%-1.1%
Q3 2025+23.8%+24.8%+23.5%
Q1 2025-5.0%-0.5%-5.0%
Q4 2024-8.4%-7.8%-9.0%
Q3 2024+1.4%+5.3%+12.9%
Q2 2024-10.2%-12.0%-11.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-5.3%+0.1%
Q4 2023-1.3%-3.1%-9.7%
Q3 2023-0.1%+0.7%+19.8%
Q2 2023-14.7%-8.7%-8.0%
Q1 2023+6.5%+14.6%+4.5%
Q4 2022+1.6%+5.8%-15.8%
Q3 2022-1.5%-0.0%+1.6%
Q2 2022-11.4%-7.0%-0.8%
Q1 2022-9.3%-11.2%+2.4%
Q4 2021+0.3%+0.8%+22.2%
Q3 2021-3.5%-7.7%-10.1%
Q2 2021-1.9%-10.7%+27.0%
Q1 2021-5.1%-9.0%+11.5%
Q4 2020-21.7%-23.2%-32.5%
Q3 2020-2.6%+6.7%+25.1%
Q2 2020-5.9%-1.7%+6.7%
Q1 2020+7.6%+15.4%+20.8%
Q4 2019-14.2%-16.7%-42.7%
Q3 2019-15.2%-10.8%-10.7%
Q2 2019-13.6%-14.1%-16.4%
Q1 2019+6.2%-8.5%-16.7%
Q4 2018+2.6%+1.9%-1.7%
Q3 2018-3.5%-4.0%-13.7%
Q2 2018-3.5%-3.6%-7.0%
Q1 2018+12.3%+14.8%+22.4%
Q4 2016+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q4 2017+10.7%+9.0%+4.7%
Q3 2017+4.2%+5.7%-8.4%
Q2 2017+6.5%+8.2%+20.2%
Q1 2017+4.2%+5.0%-7.0%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015

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