NASDAQ$SMPL

The Simply Good Foods Company · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Simply Good Foods' Q4 2022 financial results were reported, showcasing growth in net sales and earnings per share.

Simply Good Foods reported a 5.5% increase in net sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022, with net income rising to $30.1 million and earnings per diluted share reaching $0.30. The company's adjusted EBITDA also saw an increase, and they provided a positive outlook for fiscal year 2023, expecting continued growth.

  • Net sales increased by 5.5% to $274.2 million.
  • Net income was reported at $30.1 million, compared to $18.2 million in the previous year.
  • Earnings per diluted share (EPS) increased to $0.30, up from $0.19.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased to $51.0 million, a rise from $48.5 million year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$274M

Previous: $260M+5.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.36

Previous: $0.29+24.1%
Capital Expenditures

$536K

Previous: $2.68M-80.0%
Free Cash Flow

$42.7M

Previous: $37.9M+12.7%
Net Income

$30.1M

Previous: $18.2M+65.5%
Operating Income

$43.5M

Previous: $40.8M+6.6%
Gross Profit

$102M

Previous: $105M-2.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$67.5M

Previous: $75.3M-10.4%
Total Assets

$2.09B

Previous: $2.05B+2.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.01M

Previous: $2.5M+20.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Simply Good Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$274M

Q4 2022+5.5%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Simply Good Foods · $231M total across 2 segments · Q1 2021

  • Atkins
    $135M
  • Quest
    $95.8M

Forward guidance

The Company anticipates net sales to increase slightly greater than the 4-6% long-term algorithm and Adjusted EBITDA to increase in line with the net sales growth rate in fiscal 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales are expected to increase slightly greater than the 4-6% long-term algorithm.
  • Cost savings initiatives are in place to mostly mitigate projected higher supply chain costs.
  • Significant marketing and organizational investments are expected to continue resulting in consumer base growth.
  • Distribution and market share gains are anticipated.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase in line with the net sales growth rate.

Headwinds

  • Net sales outlook includes a headwind of almost 1 percentage point related to the licensing of the Quest frozen pizza business.
  • Gross margin is expected to decline versus last year, although at a lower rate than fiscal 2022.
  • Most of the gross margin decline will occur in the fiscal first quarter of 2023 due to prior year comparison.
  • Supply chain costs are expected to be higher.
  • Higher interest expense is expected from an increase in the variable interest rate related to its term loan debt.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

18 / 35 earnings

Positive

+16.8%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026
Q2 2026-0.3%-21.0%-14.9%
Q1 2026+6.7%+9.8%-10.5%
Q4 2025-17.5%-20.8%-19.2%
Q3 2025-2.9%-3.9%-14.7%
Q2 2025+9.2%+13.2%+7.9%
Q1 2025-6.5%-6.2%+0.3%
Q4 2024+3.8%+4.7%+21.0%
Q3 2024-0.1%-1.0%-6.6%
Q2 2024-1.2%+0.6%+14.6%
Q1 2024+3.8%+4.4%-4.3%
Q4 2023+11.3%+11.6%+21.7%
Q3 2023+5.8%+6.0%+10.1%
Q2 2023-5.9%-4.5%-2.2%
Q1 2023-7.2%-5.4%-5.6%
Q4 2022+16.8%+15.8%+17.8%
Q3 2022-5.8%-8.9%-20.8%
Q2 2022+10.1%+6.3%-0.2%
Q1 2022-8.0%-11.1%-16.1%
Q4 2021+13.1%+13.3%+13.7%
Q3 2021+2.7%+1.5%+2.7%
Q2 2021+1.9%+4.6%+12.0%
Q1 2021-1.2%-3.3%-6.0%
Q4 2020-4.3%-11.1%+6.2%
Q3 2020+0.6%+2.0%+15.1%
Q2 2020-9.3%-15.9%-3.1%
Q1 2020-13.7%-12.4%-16.9%
Q4 2019+1.7%+1.5%+17.0%
Q3 2019+7.2%+11.5%+7.3%
Q2 2019+3.8%+1.5%+2.1%
Q1 2019+1.0%+0.1%+2.5%
Q4 2018-8.7%-11.0%+1.2%
Q3 2018+12.5%+13.7%+14.5%
Q2 2018-0.2%+1.2%+6.5%
Q1 2018+0.2%+4.5%+7.4%
Q4 2017-0.3%-0.3%-6.0%
Q3 2017
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2016
Q3 2016

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