NASDAQ$SMPL

The Simply Good Foods Company · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Simply Good Foods reported third quarter financial results, demonstrating solid marketplace performance driven by growth focus and effective execution in a challenging environment.

Simply Good Foods reported an 11.5% increase in net sales for the third quarter of fiscal year 2022. Net income significantly increased to $38.8 million, and adjusted diluted EPS rose to $0.44. The company reaffirmed its full-year outlook, expecting continued growth in net sales and adjusted EBITDA.

  • Net sales increased by 11.5% due to solid retail takeaway.
  • Net income was $38.8 million, a significant increase from $5.9 million.
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS increased to $0.44 from $0.43.
  • The company expects full year fiscal 2022 net sales to increase 14-15%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$317M

Previous: $284M+11.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.44

Previous: $0.43+2.3%
Adjusted EBITDA

$63.3M

Previous: $67.5M-6.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$4.7M

Previous: -$3.23M-45.3%
Free Cash Flow

$34.1M

Previous: $2.66M+1181.9%
Net Income

$38.8M

Previous: $5.9M+558.8%
Operating Income

$55.3M

Previous: $60.3M-8.4%
Gross Profit

$119M

Previous: $121M-1.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$56.7M

Previous: $90.2M-37.1%
Total Assets

$2.11B

Previous: $2.04B+3.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.99M

Previous: $2.17M+37.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Simply Good Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$317M

Q3 2022+11.5%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Simply Good Foods · $231M total across 2 segments · Q1 2021

  • Atkins
    $135M
  • Quest
    $95.8M

Forward guidance

The Company expects that it will generate solid net sales and Adjusted EBITDA growth in fiscal 2022. Due to the year-to-date higher than usual customer inventory levels, we expect fourth quarter fiscal 2022 net sales performance to be below the anticipated retail takeaway increase of high-single digits on a percentage basis versus last year.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales to increase about 14-15% versus last year.
  • The Company reaffirms its gross margin outlook of about 250 basis points decline versus last year.
  • Full-year fiscal 2022 Adjusted EBITDA to increase slightly less than the net sales growth rate.
  • Marketing expense is anticipated to increase high single-digits on a percentage basis versus last year.
  • Full-year fiscal 2022 Adjusted Diluted EPS to increase greater than the Adjusted EBITDA growth rate.

Headwinds

  • fourth quarter fiscal 2022 net sales performance to be below the anticipated retail takeaway increase of high-single digits on a percentage basis versus last year.
  • Included in the sales outlook is about a 2 percentage point headwind due to the Europe business exit and the licensing of the Quest frozen pizza business.
  • gross margin outlook of about 250 basis points decline versus last year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA(4,6) expected to increase slightly less than the net sales growth rate
  • Due to the year-to-date higher than usual customer inventory levels, we expect fourth quarter net sales performance to be below the anticipated retail takeaway increase of high-single digits on a percentage basis versus last year.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

18 / 35 earnings

Positive

+16.8%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026
Q2 2026-0.3%-21.0%-14.9%
Q1 2026+6.7%+9.8%-10.5%
Q4 2025-17.5%-20.8%-19.2%
Q3 2025-2.9%-3.9%-14.7%
Q2 2025+9.2%+13.2%+7.9%
Q1 2025-6.5%-6.2%+0.3%
Q4 2024+3.8%+4.7%+21.0%
Q3 2024-0.1%-1.0%-6.6%
Q2 2024-1.2%+0.6%+14.6%
Q1 2024+3.8%+4.4%-4.3%
Q4 2023+11.3%+11.6%+21.7%
Q3 2023+5.8%+6.0%+10.1%
Q2 2023-5.9%-4.5%-2.2%
Q1 2023-7.2%-5.4%-5.6%
Q4 2022+16.8%+15.8%+17.8%
Q3 2022-5.8%-8.9%-20.8%
Q2 2022+10.1%+6.3%-0.2%
Q1 2022-8.0%-11.1%-16.1%
Q4 2021+13.1%+13.3%+13.7%
Q3 2021+2.7%+1.5%+2.7%
Q2 2021+1.9%+4.6%+12.0%
Q1 2021-1.2%-3.3%-6.0%
Q4 2020-4.3%-11.1%+6.2%
Q3 2020+0.6%+2.0%+15.1%
Q2 2020-9.3%-15.9%-3.1%
Q1 2020-13.7%-12.4%-16.9%
Q4 2019+1.7%+1.5%+17.0%
Q3 2019+7.2%+11.5%+7.3%
Q2 2019+3.8%+1.5%+2.1%
Q1 2019+1.0%+0.1%+2.5%
Q4 2018-8.7%-11.0%+1.2%
Q3 2018+12.5%+13.7%+14.5%
Q2 2018-0.2%+1.2%+6.5%
Q1 2018+0.2%+4.5%+7.4%
Q4 2017-0.3%-0.3%-6.0%
Q3 2017
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2016
Q3 2016

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