NASDAQ$SMPL

The Simply Good Foods Company · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported fiscal first quarter 2021 financial results and updated fiscal first half of year 2021 outlook.

Simply Good Foods reported a strong fiscal first quarter, exceeding expectations despite COVID-19 challenges. Net sales increased by 51.9%, driven by the Quest acquisition, and net income rose to $22.5 million. The company updated its outlook for the first half of fiscal 2021, anticipating net sales of $455-465 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $85-90 million.

  • Net sales increased 51.9% driven by the Quest acquisition.
  • Net income was $22.5 million, compared to a net loss of $4.8 million.
  • EPS was $0.23 versus $(0.05).
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 53.2% to $48.7 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$231M

Previous: $152M+51.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.29

Previous: -$0.05+680.0%
Adjusted EBITDA

$48.7M

Previous: $31.8M+53.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$93K

Previous: -$280K+66.8%
Free Cash Flow

$22.4M

Previous: -$5.07M+541.7%
Net Income

$22.5M

Previous: -$4.79M+569.4%
Operating Income

$39.2M

Previous: -$2.99M+1412.8%
Gross Profit

$94M

Previous: $62.2M+51.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$91.5M

Previous: $72.7M+25.8%
Total Assets

$2.02B

Previous: $2.02B-0.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.11M

Previous: $1.67M-33.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Simply Good Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$231M

Q1 2021+51.9%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Simply Good Foods · $231M total across 2 segments · Q1 2021

  • Atkins
    $135M
  • Quest
    $95.8M

Forward guidance

The Company updated its outlook for the first half of fiscal 2021. Assuming U.S. consumer movement restrictions remain at the current levels, the Company anticipates net sales of $455-465 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $85-90 million.

Tailwinds

  • Net Sales expected to be in the $455-465 million range, greater than the previous estimate of $425-435 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA expected to be in the $85-90 million, greater than the previous estimate of $77-82 million
  • Company reaffirms its expectation that full year gross margin will be about the same as fiscal 2020
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin will increase
  • Company is positioned for long-term sustainable net sales and earnings growth

Headwinds

  • Uncertainty related to the duration of reduced consumer mobility
  • Uncertainty when shopping trips will return to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in the mass market retail channel
  • Difficult to provide a full-year fiscal 2021 outlook at this time
  • Divestiture of SimplyProtein is about a 2% headwind to both the first half and full year fiscal 2021 net sales growth
  • Exit of Europe is about a 2% headwind to both the first half and full year fiscal 2021 net sales growth

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

18 / 35 earnings

Positive

+16.8%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026
Q2 2026-0.3%-21.0%-14.9%
Q1 2026+6.7%+9.8%-10.5%
Q4 2025-17.5%-20.8%-19.2%
Q3 2025-2.9%-3.9%-14.7%
Q2 2025+9.2%+13.2%+7.9%
Q1 2025-6.5%-6.2%+0.3%
Q4 2024+3.8%+4.7%+21.0%
Q3 2024-0.1%-1.0%-6.6%
Q2 2024-1.2%+0.6%+14.6%
Q1 2024+3.8%+4.4%-4.3%
Q4 2023+11.3%+11.6%+21.7%
Q3 2023+5.8%+6.0%+10.1%
Q2 2023-5.9%-4.5%-2.2%
Q1 2023-7.2%-5.4%-5.6%
Q4 2022+16.8%+15.8%+17.8%
Q3 2022-5.8%-8.9%-20.8%
Q2 2022+10.1%+6.3%-0.2%
Q1 2022-8.0%-11.1%-16.1%
Q4 2021+13.1%+13.3%+13.7%
Q3 2021+2.7%+1.5%+2.7%
Q2 2021+1.9%+4.6%+12.0%
Q1 2021-1.2%-3.3%-6.0%
Q4 2020-4.3%-11.1%+6.2%
Q3 2020+0.6%+2.0%+15.1%
Q2 2020-9.3%-15.9%-3.1%
Q1 2020-13.7%-12.4%-16.9%
Q4 2019+1.7%+1.5%+17.0%
Q3 2019+7.2%+11.5%+7.3%
Q2 2019+3.8%+1.5%+2.1%
Q1 2019+1.0%+0.1%+2.5%
Q4 2018-8.7%-11.0%+1.2%
Q3 2018+12.5%+13.7%+14.5%
Q2 2018-0.2%+1.2%+6.5%
Q1 2018+0.2%+4.5%+7.4%
Q4 2017-0.3%-0.3%-6.0%
Q3 2017
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2016
Q3 2016

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