NASDAQ$SMPL

The Simply Good Foods Company · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Simply Good Foods' Q4 2020 financial results were reported, showing significant growth driven by the Quest acquisition, despite challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Simply Good Foods reported a 59.7% increase in net sales for Q4 2020, driven by the Quest acquisition. Net income increased by 104.0% to $12.4 million. The company is optimistic about long-term growth but acknowledges uncertainty due to the ongoing pandemic.

  • Net sales increased by 59.7% due to the Quest acquisition.
  • Net income increased by 104.0% to $12.4 million.
  • Quest net sales exceeded expectations, with mid-single-digit percentage growth.
  • Atkins net sales declined by 8.0%, but performed better than internal forecasts.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$222M

Previous: $139M+59.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.20

Previous: $0.07+185.7%
Capital Expenditures

$970K

Previous: $260K+273.1%
Free Cash Flow

$33.9M

Previous: $20.2M+68.0%
Net Income

$12.4M

Previous: $6.09M+104.0%
Operating Income

$24.8M

Previous: $12.1M+105.0%
Gross Profit

$88.1M

Previous: $35.4M+148.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$95.8M

Previous: $266M-64.0%
Total Assets

$2.01B

Previous: $1.14B+75.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.69M

Previous: $1.58M+7.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Simply Good Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$222M

Q4 2020+59.7%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Simply Good Foods · $231M total across 2 segments · Q1 2021

  • Atkins
    $135M
  • Quest
    $95.8M

Forward guidance

The company anticipates first half of fiscal 2021 net sales will be in the $425-435 million range and Adjusted EBITDA in the $77-82 million range.

Tailwinds

  • Remain on track to achieve the Quest acquisition synergies
  • Confident in our business model and long-term growth prospects
  • Consumer shopping behavior will return to normal and consumption will improve
  • Brand benefits of active nutrition and weight management will drive more better-for-you snacking and meal replacement usage occasions.
  • Executing against our strategies and are positioned for long-term sustainable net sales and earnings growth

Headwinds

  • Uncertainty related to when consumption behavior and shopping trips will return to normal levels, particularly in the mass market retail channel.
  • The unknown duration of these challenges make it difficult to provide a full-year fiscal 2021 outlook at this time.
  • Divestiture of the SimplyProtein® brand will be a slight headwind to net sales growth.
  • Retail takeaway will be somewhat similar to current trends
  • Full year gross margin to be about the same as last year

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

18 / 35 earnings

Positive

+16.8%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026
Q2 2026-0.3%-21.0%-14.9%
Q1 2026+6.7%+9.8%-10.5%
Q4 2025-17.5%-20.8%-19.2%
Q3 2025-2.9%-3.9%-14.7%
Q2 2025+9.2%+13.2%+7.9%
Q1 2025-6.5%-6.2%+0.3%
Q4 2024+3.8%+4.7%+21.0%
Q3 2024-0.1%-1.0%-6.6%
Q2 2024-1.2%+0.6%+14.6%
Q1 2024+3.8%+4.4%-4.3%
Q4 2023+11.3%+11.6%+21.7%
Q3 2023+5.8%+6.0%+10.1%
Q2 2023-5.9%-4.5%-2.2%
Q1 2023-7.2%-5.4%-5.6%
Q4 2022+16.8%+15.8%+17.8%
Q3 2022-5.8%-8.9%-20.8%
Q2 2022+10.1%+6.3%-0.2%
Q1 2022-8.0%-11.1%-16.1%
Q4 2021+13.1%+13.3%+13.7%
Q3 2021+2.7%+1.5%+2.7%
Q2 2021+1.9%+4.6%+12.0%
Q1 2021-1.2%-3.3%-6.0%
Q4 2020-4.3%-11.1%+6.2%
Q3 2020+0.6%+2.0%+15.1%
Q2 2020-9.3%-15.9%-3.1%
Q1 2020-13.7%-12.4%-16.9%
Q4 2019+1.7%+1.5%+17.0%
Q3 2019+7.2%+11.5%+7.3%
Q2 2019+3.8%+1.5%+2.1%
Q1 2019+1.0%+0.1%+2.5%
Q4 2018-8.7%-11.0%+1.2%
Q3 2018+12.5%+13.7%+14.5%
Q2 2018-0.2%+1.2%+6.5%
Q1 2018+0.2%+4.5%+7.4%
Q4 2017-0.3%-0.3%-6.0%
Q3 2017
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2016
Q3 2016

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