NASDAQ$SMPL

The Simply Good Foods Company · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Simply Good Foods reported financial results for the thirteen week period ended November 30, 2019.

Simply Good Foods reported a 25.8% increase in net sales to $152.2 million, driven by legacy Atkins and the acquisition of Quest. However, the company reported a net loss of $4.8 million, compared to net income of $15.3 million for the comparable period of 2019, primarily due to costs related to the Quest acquisition. The company updated its outlook for the full year fiscal 2020, anticipating net sales of $850-870 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $154-158 million.

  • Net sales increased 25.8% to $152.2 million.
  • Gross profit margin was 40.9%, a decrease of 200 basis points.
  • Net loss was $4.8 million, compared to net income of $15.3 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 19.1% to $31.8 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$152M

Previous: $121M+25.8%
EPS

-$0.05

Previous: $0.18-127.8%
Adjusted EBITDA

$31.8M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$280K

Previous: -$494K+43.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$5.07M

Previous: $14.8M-134.4%
Net Income

-$4.79M

Previous: $15.3M-131.4%
Operating Income

-$2.99M

Previous: $21.2M-114.1%
Gross Profit

$62.2M

Previous: $59.1M+5.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$72.7M

Previous: $211M-65.5%
Total Assets

$2.02B

Previous: $1.09B+85.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.67M

Previous: $1.06M+57.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Simply Good Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$152M

Q1 2020+25.8%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 9 of 14 quarters(64%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Simply Good Foods · $231M total across 2 segments · Q1 2021

  • Atkins
    $135M
  • Quest
    $95.8M

Forward guidance

For the full year fiscal 2020, the Company updated its outlook for the acquisition of Quest and anticipates full-year net sales of $850-870 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $154-158 million. The Company anticipates 2020 Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share to be in the range of $0.90 to $0.95.

Tailwinds

  • Full-year net sales of $850-870 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $154-158 million.
  • Legacy Atkins net sales growth for the fifty-two weeks ended August 29, 2020, to be at the high end of its long-term net sales growth target of 4% to 6%.
  • Legacy Atkins Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow at a somewhat higher rate than its expectation for net sales.
  • Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share to be in the range of $0.90 to $0.95 (an increase of 17% to 23% versus Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share of $0.77 in 2019).

Headwinds

  • The extra week included in fiscal year 2019 is a headwind to year-over-year comparisons of reported legacy Atkins net sales growth in fiscal 2020 of about 2%.
  • Integration of Quest
  • Changes in consumer preferences and purchasing habits
  • The Company’s ability to maintain adequate product inventory levels to timely supply customer orders
  • Competitive product and pricing activity

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

18 / 35 earnings

Positive

+16.8%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026
Q2 2026-0.3%-21.0%-14.9%
Q1 2026+6.7%+9.8%-10.5%
Q4 2025-17.5%-20.8%-19.2%
Q3 2025-2.9%-3.9%-14.7%
Q2 2025+9.2%+13.2%+7.9%
Q1 2025-6.5%-6.2%+0.3%
Q4 2024+3.8%+4.7%+21.0%
Q3 2024-0.1%-1.0%-6.6%
Q2 2024-1.2%+0.6%+14.6%
Q1 2024+3.8%+4.4%-4.3%
Q4 2023+11.3%+11.6%+21.7%
Q3 2023+5.8%+6.0%+10.1%
Q2 2023-5.9%-4.5%-2.2%
Q1 2023-7.2%-5.4%-5.6%
Q4 2022+16.8%+15.8%+17.8%
Q3 2022-5.8%-8.9%-20.8%
Q2 2022+10.1%+6.3%-0.2%
Q1 2022-8.0%-11.1%-16.1%
Q4 2021+13.1%+13.3%+13.7%
Q3 2021+2.7%+1.5%+2.7%
Q2 2021+1.9%+4.6%+12.0%
Q1 2021-1.2%-3.3%-6.0%
Q4 2020-4.3%-11.1%+6.2%
Q3 2020+0.6%+2.0%+15.1%
Q2 2020-9.3%-15.9%-3.1%
Q1 2020-13.7%-12.4%-16.9%
Q4 2019+1.7%+1.5%+17.0%
Q3 2019+7.2%+11.5%+7.3%
Q2 2019+3.8%+1.5%+2.1%
Q1 2019+1.0%+0.1%+2.5%
Q4 2018-8.7%-11.0%+1.2%
Q3 2018+12.5%+13.7%+14.5%
Q2 2018-0.2%+1.2%+6.5%
Q1 2018+0.2%+4.5%+7.4%
Q4 2017-0.3%-0.3%-6.0%
Q3 2017
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2016
Q3 2016

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