NASDAQ$SMPL

The Simply Good Foods Company · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Simply Good Foods reported first quarter 2023 financial results with net sales increase and reaffirmed full fiscal year 2023 net sales and Adjusted EBITDA outlook.

Simply Good Foods reported a 7.0% increase in net sales to $300.9 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023. Net income increased to $35.9 million, with EPS at $0.36. The company reaffirmed its full fiscal year 2023 net sales and Adjusted EBITDA outlook, expecting net sales to increase slightly greater than the 4-6% long-term algorithm and Adjusted EBITDA to increase in line with net sales growth rate.

  • Net sales increased 7.0% compared to the year-ago period.
  • Net income was $35.9 million, up from $21.2 million in the previous year.
  • Earnings per diluted share (EPS) increased to $0.36 from $0.22.
  • The company reaffirmed fiscal year 2023 net sales and Adjusted EBITDA outlook.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$301M

Previous: $281M+7.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.42

Previous: $0.43-2.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.15M

Previous: -$2.69M+57.2%
Free Cash Flow

$34.7M

Previous: $18.5M+88.0%
Net Income

$35.9M

Previous: $21.2M+69.5%
Operating Income

$52.5M

Previous: $58M-9.5%
Gross Profit

$111M

Previous: $117M-4.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$54.1M

Previous: $35.4M+52.7%
Total Assets

$2.09B

Previous: $2.04B+2.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.31M

Previous: $2.61M+27.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Simply Good Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$301M

Q1 2023+7%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Simply Good Foods · $231M total across 2 segments · Q1 2021

  • Atkins
    $135M
  • Quest
    $95.8M

Forward guidance

The Company anticipates the following in fiscal 2023: Net sales to increase slightly greater than the 4-6% long-term algorithm; Gross margin will decline versus last year, although at a lower rate than fiscal 2022; Full-year fiscal 2023 Adjusted EBITDA to increase in line with the net sales growth rate; and, Adjusted Diluted EPS to increase less than the Adjusted EBITDA growth rate due to the Company’s expectation of higher interest expense from an increase in the variable interest rate related to its term loan debt, partially mitigated by fewer shares outstanding.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales to increase slightly greater than the 4-6% long-term algorithm.
  • Gross margin will decline versus last year, although at a lower rate than fiscal 2022.
  • Full-year fiscal 2023 Adjusted EBITDA to increase in line with the net sales growth rate.
  • The Company has made significant marketing and organizational investments in its business over the past few years, which it believes should continue to result in the growth of its consumer base, distribution and market share gains.

Headwinds

  • Adjusted Diluted EPS to increase less than the Adjusted EBITDA growth rate due to the Company’s expectation of higher interest expense from an increase in the variable interest rate related to its term loan debt, partially mitigated by fewer shares outstanding.
  • Gross margin will decline versus last year
  • Supply chain costs to be higher than last year.
  • Headwind of almost 1 percentage point related to the previously discussed agreement to license the Quest frozen pizza business

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

18 / 35 earnings

Positive

+16.8%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026
Q2 2026-0.3%-21.0%-14.9%
Q1 2026+6.7%+9.8%-10.5%
Q4 2025-17.5%-20.8%-19.2%
Q3 2025-2.9%-3.9%-14.7%
Q2 2025+9.2%+13.2%+7.9%
Q1 2025-6.5%-6.2%+0.3%
Q4 2024+3.8%+4.7%+21.0%
Q3 2024-0.1%-1.0%-6.6%
Q2 2024-1.2%+0.6%+14.6%
Q1 2024+3.8%+4.4%-4.3%
Q4 2023+11.3%+11.6%+21.7%
Q3 2023+5.8%+6.0%+10.1%
Q2 2023-5.9%-4.5%-2.2%
Q1 2023-7.2%-5.4%-5.6%
Q4 2022+16.8%+15.8%+17.8%
Q3 2022-5.8%-8.9%-20.8%
Q2 2022+10.1%+6.3%-0.2%
Q1 2022-8.0%-11.1%-16.1%
Q4 2021+13.1%+13.3%+13.7%
Q3 2021+2.7%+1.5%+2.7%
Q2 2021+1.9%+4.6%+12.0%
Q1 2021-1.2%-3.3%-6.0%
Q4 2020-4.3%-11.1%+6.2%
Q3 2020+0.6%+2.0%+15.1%
Q2 2020-9.3%-15.9%-3.1%
Q1 2020-13.7%-12.4%-16.9%
Q4 2019+1.7%+1.5%+17.0%
Q3 2019+7.2%+11.5%+7.3%
Q2 2019+3.8%+1.5%+2.1%
Q1 2019+1.0%+0.1%+2.5%
Q4 2018-8.7%-11.0%+1.2%
Q3 2018+12.5%+13.7%+14.5%
Q2 2018-0.2%+1.2%+6.5%
Q1 2018+0.2%+4.5%+7.4%
Q4 2017-0.3%-0.3%-6.0%
Q3 2017
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2016
Q3 2016

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