NASDAQ$SMPL

The Simply Good Foods Company · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial results for Q3 2023 and reaffirmed full fiscal year 2023 outlook.

Simply Good Foods reported a 2.6% increase in net sales to $324.8 million, with net income at $35.4 million and EPS at $0.35. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $66.6 million. The company reaffirms its full-year fiscal 2023 outlook, expecting net sales to increase slightly greater than the 4-6% long-term algorithm.

  • Net sales increased by 2.6% to $324.8 million.
  • Net income was $35.4 million, with EPS at $0.35.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased to $66.6 million.
  • Full-year fiscal 2023 outlook reaffirmed, with net sales expected to increase slightly greater than the 4-6% long-term algorithm.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$325M

Previous: $317M+2.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.44

Previous: $0.44+0.0%
Gross Margin

36.7%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$10.1M

Previous: -$4.7M-115.2%
Free Cash Flow

$25.3M

Previous: $34.1M-25.8%
Net Income

$35.4M

Previous: $38.8M-8.8%
Operating Income

$54.2M

Previous: $55.3M-1.9%
Gross Profit

$119M

Previous: $119M+0.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$68.8M

Previous: $56.7M+21.3%
Total Assets

$2.08B

Previous: $2.11B-1.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.12M

Previous: $2.99M+37.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Simply Good Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$325M

Q3 2023+2.6%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Simply Good Foods · $231M total across 2 segments · Q1 2021

  • Atkins
    $135M
  • Quest
    $95.8M

Forward guidance

The Company reaffirms its prior full year outlook and anticipates the following for the full fiscal year 2023: Net sales to increase slightly greater than the 4-6% long-term algorithm. Included in the sales outlook is a headwind of almost 1 percentage point related to the previously discussed agreement to license the Quest frozen pizza business; Gross margin will decline versus last year, although at a lower rate than fiscal 2022; Adjusted EBITDA to increase, but slightly less than the net sales growth rate; and, Adjusted Diluted EPS to increase less than the Adjusted EBITDA growth rate primarily due to higher interest expense from an increase in the variable interest rate related to its term loan debt.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales to increase slightly greater than the 4-6% long-term algorithm.
  • Sales outlook includes a headwind of almost 1 percentage point related to the Quest frozen pizza business licensing.
  • Gross margin decline will be at a lower rate than fiscal 2022.
  • Adjusted EBITDA to increase, but slightly less than the net sales growth rate.
  • Company believes it is well positioned to deliver on its objectives.

Headwinds

  • Adjusted Diluted EPS to increase less than the Adjusted EBITDA growth rate.
  • Higher interest expense from an increase in the variable interest rate related to its term loan debt.
  • Challenging economic environment.
  • Gross margin will decline versus last year
  • Headwind of almost 1 percentage point related to the Quest frozen pizza business licensing

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

18 / 35 earnings

Positive

+16.8%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026
Q2 2026-0.3%-21.0%-14.9%
Q1 2026+6.7%+9.8%-10.5%
Q4 2025-17.5%-20.8%-19.2%
Q3 2025-2.9%-3.9%-14.7%
Q2 2025+9.2%+13.2%+7.9%
Q1 2025-6.5%-6.2%+0.3%
Q4 2024+3.8%+4.7%+21.0%
Q3 2024-0.1%-1.0%-6.6%
Q2 2024-1.2%+0.6%+14.6%
Q1 2024+3.8%+4.4%-4.3%
Q4 2023+11.3%+11.6%+21.7%
Q3 2023+5.8%+6.0%+10.1%
Q2 2023-5.9%-4.5%-2.2%
Q1 2023-7.2%-5.4%-5.6%
Q4 2022+16.8%+15.8%+17.8%
Q3 2022-5.8%-8.9%-20.8%
Q2 2022+10.1%+6.3%-0.2%
Q1 2022-8.0%-11.1%-16.1%
Q4 2021+13.1%+13.3%+13.7%
Q3 2021+2.7%+1.5%+2.7%
Q2 2021+1.9%+4.6%+12.0%
Q1 2021-1.2%-3.3%-6.0%
Q4 2020-4.3%-11.1%+6.2%
Q3 2020+0.6%+2.0%+15.1%
Q2 2020-9.3%-15.9%-3.1%
Q1 2020-13.7%-12.4%-16.9%
Q4 2019+1.7%+1.5%+17.0%
Q3 2019+7.2%+11.5%+7.3%
Q2 2019+3.8%+1.5%+2.1%
Q1 2019+1.0%+0.1%+2.5%
Q4 2018-8.7%-11.0%+1.2%
Q3 2018+12.5%+13.7%+14.5%
Q2 2018-0.2%+1.2%+6.5%
Q1 2018+0.2%+4.5%+7.4%
Q4 2017-0.3%-0.3%-6.0%
Q3 2017
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2016
Q3 2016

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