NASDAQ$SMPL

The Simply Good Foods Company · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Simply Good Foods' third quarter performance was significantly impacted by COVID-19 factors, resulting in changes in shopping and consumption behavior, with net sales increasing by 54.2% due to the Quest acquisition and legacy Atkins net sales declining by 8.3%.

Simply Good Foods reported a 54.2% increase in net sales for the third quarter, driven by the acquisition of Quest. However, Legacy Atkins net sales declined by 8.3%, offset by e-commerce growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 74.2% due to the inclusion of Quest.

  • Net sales increased 54.2%, reaching $215.1 million.
  • Gross profit margin increased by 60 basis points to 41.2%.
  • Net income was $16.4 million, compared to $13.5 million in the previous year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 74.2% to $43.4 million, primarily due to the Quest acquisition.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$215M

Previous: $139M+54.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.26

Previous: $0.16+62.5%
Adjusted EBITDA

$43.4M

Previous: $24.9M+74.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$766K

Previous: -$777K+1.4%
Free Cash Flow

$15.6M

Previous: $12.7M+23.3%
Net Income

$16.4M

Previous: $13.5M+21.9%
Operating Income

$31.1M

Previous: $20.5M+51.7%
Gross Profit

$88.6M

Previous: $65.3M+35.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$111M

Previous: $248M-55.1%
Total Assets

$2.04B

Previous: $1.12B+81.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.15M

Previous: $1.44M+48.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Simply Good Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$215M

Q3 2020+54.2%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Simply Good Foods · $231M total across 2 segments · Q1 2021

  • Atkins
    $135M
  • Quest
    $95.8M

Forward guidance

Simply Good Foods anticipates full-year 2020 net sales of $790-800 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $145-150 million, assuming U.S. movement restrictions remain at the current levels. The Company anticipates 2020 Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share to be in the range of $0.86 to $0.90.

Tailwinds

  • Marketplace trends of products have improved sequentially as movement restrictions eased.
  • Increase in consumption is due to increasing brand relevance among consumers.
  • Increase in consumption is due to increased shopping trips.
  • Increase in consumption is due to more on-the-go consumption.
  • Company stepped-up marketing and merchandising investments in brands.

Headwinds

  • Full-year 2020 net sales of $790-800 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $145-150 million is assumed that U.S. movement restrictions remain at the current levels
  • Legacy Atkins net sales and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be about the same as the year ago period, including the headwind of a fifty-third week in fiscal year 2019.
  • The company estimates that the extra week included in fiscal year 2019 is a headwind to year-over-year comparisons of reported legacy Atkins net sales growth in fiscal 2020 of about 2 percentage points.
  • The Company anticipates 2020 Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share to be in the range of $0.86 to $0.90 versus $0.77 in 2019.
  • ERP implementation costs ramp-up in the fourth quarter.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.6%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

18 / 35 earnings

Positive

+16.8%

Q4 2022

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026
Q2 2026-0.3%-21.0%-14.9%
Q1 2026+6.7%+9.8%-10.5%
Q4 2025-17.5%-20.8%-19.2%
Q3 2025-2.9%-3.9%-14.7%
Q2 2025+9.2%+13.2%+7.9%
Q1 2025-6.5%-6.2%+0.3%
Q4 2024+3.8%+4.7%+21.0%
Q3 2024-0.1%-1.0%-6.6%
Q2 2024-1.2%+0.6%+14.6%
Q1 2024+3.8%+4.4%-4.3%
Q4 2023+11.3%+11.6%+21.7%
Q3 2023+5.8%+6.0%+10.1%
Q2 2023-5.9%-4.5%-2.2%
Q1 2023-7.2%-5.4%-5.6%
Q4 2022+16.8%+15.8%+17.8%
Q3 2022-5.8%-8.9%-20.8%
Q2 2022+10.1%+6.3%-0.2%
Q1 2022-8.0%-11.1%-16.1%
Q4 2021+13.1%+13.3%+13.7%
Q3 2021+2.7%+1.5%+2.7%
Q2 2021+1.9%+4.6%+12.0%
Q1 2021-1.2%-3.3%-6.0%
Q4 2020-4.3%-11.1%+6.2%
Q3 2020+0.6%+2.0%+15.1%
Q2 2020-9.3%-15.9%-3.1%
Q1 2020-13.7%-12.4%-16.9%
Q4 2019+1.7%+1.5%+17.0%
Q3 2019+7.2%+11.5%+7.3%
Q2 2019+3.8%+1.5%+2.1%
Q1 2019+1.0%+0.1%+2.5%
Q4 2018-8.7%-11.0%+1.2%
Q3 2018+12.5%+13.7%+14.5%
Q2 2018-0.2%+1.2%+6.5%
Q1 2018+0.2%+4.5%+7.4%
Q4 2017-0.3%-0.3%-6.0%
Q3 2017
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2016
Q3 2016

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