NASDAQ$PTON

Peloton Interactive · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Peloton's Q4 2023 performance reflected a seasonal business with subscription growth offset by hardware sales slowdown and higher churn, though positive trends emerged towards the end of the quarter.

Peloton's Q4 FY2023 saw a 4% year-over-year increase in Connected Fitness subscriptions, but a sequential decline due to seasonal hardware sales slowdown and higher churn. Despite these challenges, the company achieved positive free cash flow (excluding the DISH legal settlement). The company is focused on growth initiatives, including new app subscription tiers and partnerships.

  • Connected Fitness subscriptions grew 4% year-over-year but declined sequentially due to seasonal factors and higher churn.
  • The seat post recall impacted sales and subscriptions, with approximately 750,000 requests for replacement seat posts.
  • The company achieved positive free cash flow (excluding the DISH legal settlement) for the second time in its turnaround.
  • New initiatives, including rental services and app subscription tiers, show early signs of success.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$642M

Previous: $679M-5.4%
EPS (adj)

-$0.68

Previous: -$1.32+48.5%
Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions

3.1M

Previous: 3.0M+3.8%
Average Net Monthly Paid Connected Fitness Subscription Churn

1.4%

Previous: 1.4%+0.0%
Ending Paid App Subscriptions

828.0K

Previous: 980.0K-15.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$74M

No prior period
Net Income

-$242M

Previous: -$1.24B+80.6%
Operating Income

-$226M

Previous: -$1.2B+81.2%
Gross Profit

$201M

Previous: -$29.8M+774.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$814M

Previous: $1.25B-35.1%
Total Assets

$2.77B

Previous: $4.03B-31.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$71.3M

Previous: $86.5M-17.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Peloton · Revenue · Quarterly

$642M

Q4 2023-5.4%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Peloton · $642M total across 2 segments · Q4 2023

  • Subscription
    $422M+10.1%
  • Connected Fitness Products
    $220M-25.4%

Forward guidance

Peloton anticipates revenue between $580 million and $600 million for Q1 FY24. Gross margin is expected to be between 46.5%. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between -$20 million and -$10 million.

Tailwinds

  • Continued improvements in cost structure and operational efficiency.
  • Modest continued mix-shift in Q1 revenues to subscription versus hardware revenues.
  • Modest sequential improvement to Average Net Monthly Paid Connected Fitness churn.
  • New growth initiatives (such as our new App subscription tiers) are challenging to forecast.
  • Paid App Subscription guidance reflects continued marketing investment to drive awareness and growth of our free app tier users.

Headwinds

  • App marketing spend will be relatively inefficient in driving Paid App subscriber gross additions in the near term.
  • A substantial majority of costs incurred in connection with the development of internal-use software will not be eligible for capitalization and will be recognized as research and development expense.
  • Lower than historical capital expenditures and higher research and development expense.
  • Unforeseen and significant headwinds
  • Continue to pursue significant new growth initiatives (such as our new App subscription tiers) that are challenging to forecast.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

14 / 27 earnings

Positive

+44.0%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-38.1%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026+8.5%+3.5%+10.8%
Q2 2026-25.7%-26.4%-35.2%
Q1 2026+13.8%+11.2%-4.3%
Q3 2025-6.9%-2.4%+4.6%
Q2 2025+12.0%+15.3%-18.1%
Q1 2025+9.0%+15.2%+55.5%
Q4 2024+44.0%+43.5%+45.8%
Q3 2024+6.5%+27.0%+13.0%
Q2 2024-23.7%-21.2%-17.3%
Q1 2024+8.3%+1.2%+29.3%
Q4 2023-21.1%-16.2%-36.2%
Q3 2023-11.6%-11.3%-5.2%
Q2 2023+31.3%+22.1%+7.2%
Q1 2023+8.8%+11.0%+54.1%
Q4 2022-21.3%-28.9%-36.9%
Q3 2022-12.7%+12.3%-21.3%
Q2 2022+30.3%+16.6%-24.0%
Q1 2022-38.1%-44.2%-51.6%
Q4 2021-10.2%-13.8%-20.3%
Q3 2021+1.4%+10.2%+24.7%
Q2 2021+0.8%+0.4%-28.6%
Q1 2021+5.8%-11.3%-3.5%
Q4 2020-7.8%-6.3%+34.9%
Q3 2020+21.8%+18.2%+26.7%
Q2 2020-13.4%-14.6%-25.4%
Q4 2019-0.5%+5.7%+43.5%
Q1 2020-6.5%-4.4%+27.2%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019
Q4 2018
Q3 2018

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