NASDAQ$PTON

Peloton Interactive · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Peloton's Q3 2023 performance showcased growth in connected fitness subscriptions and gross profit, alongside significant reductions in Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow losses.

Peloton's Q3 2023 showed positive year-over-year trends, including a 5% increase in connected fitness subscriptions, a 47% rise in gross profit, and substantial reductions in both Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow losses. The company also settled a patent license agreement with DISH Technologies, which is expected to impact Q4 cash flow.

  • Connected fitness subscriptions grew by 5% year-over-year.
  • Gross profit increased by 47% year-over-year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss decreased by $175 million year-over-year.
  • Free Cash Flow loss reduced by $691 million year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$749M

Previous: $964M-22.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.79

Previous: -$1.15+31.3%
Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions

3.1M

Previous: 3.0M+5.0%
Average Net Monthly Paid Connected Fitness Subscription Churn

1.1%

Previous: 0.8%+46.7%
Ending Paid App Subscriptions

853.0K

Previous: 976.0K-12.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$276M

Previous: -$1B+72.4%
Net Income

-$276M

Previous: -$757M+63.6%
Operating Income

-$266M

Previous: -$736M+63.8%
Gross Profit

$270M

Previous: $184M+46.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$874M

Previous: $879M-0.6%
Total Assets

$3.02B

Previous: $4.41B-31.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$70M

Previous: $117M-40.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Peloton · Revenue · Quarterly

$749M

Q3 2023-22.3%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Peloton · $749M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Subscription
    $425M+14.8%
  • Connected Fitness Products
    $324M-45.5%

Forward guidance

Peloton's Q4 FY23 outlook anticipates a decrease in ending connected fitness subscriptions and revenue, reflecting typical seasonality. Gross margin is expected to improve sequentially due to a mix-shift towards the Subscription segment, while connected fitness subscription churn is anticipated to increase modestly.

Tailwinds

  • Sequential gross margin improvement is expected.
  • Improvement will be driven by a continued mix-shift of total revenues toward our Subscription segment.
  • Progress toward achieving our financial targets for FY23.
  • Progress on free cash flow which improved $691 million compared to one year ago.

Headwinds

  • Guidance range for end of period Connected Fitness Subscriptions reflects lower near-term visibility.
  • Guidance range for revenue reflects lower near-term visibility.
  • Typically the lowest volume quarter of our fiscal year.
  • Anticipate a modest sequential increase in Connected Fitness subscription churn.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

14 / 27 earnings

Positive

+44.0%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-38.1%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026+8.5%+3.5%+10.8%
Q2 2026-25.7%-26.4%-35.2%
Q1 2026+13.8%+11.2%-4.3%
Q3 2025-6.9%-2.4%+4.6%
Q2 2025+12.0%+15.3%-18.1%
Q1 2025+9.0%+15.2%+55.5%
Q4 2024+44.0%+43.5%+45.8%
Q3 2024+6.5%+27.0%+13.0%
Q2 2024-23.7%-21.2%-17.3%
Q1 2024+8.3%+1.2%+29.3%
Q4 2023-21.1%-16.2%-36.2%
Q3 2023-11.6%-11.3%-5.2%
Q2 2023+31.3%+22.1%+7.2%
Q1 2023+8.8%+11.0%+54.1%
Q4 2022-21.3%-28.9%-36.9%
Q3 2022-12.7%+12.3%-21.3%
Q2 2022+30.3%+16.6%-24.0%
Q1 2022-38.1%-44.2%-51.6%
Q4 2021-10.2%-13.8%-20.3%
Q3 2021+1.4%+10.2%+24.7%
Q2 2021+0.8%+0.4%-28.6%
Q1 2021+5.8%-11.3%-3.5%
Q4 2020-7.8%-6.3%+34.9%
Q3 2020+21.8%+18.2%+26.7%
Q2 2020-13.4%-14.6%-25.4%
Q4 2019-0.5%+5.7%+43.5%
Q1 2020-6.5%-4.4%+27.2%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019
Q4 2018
Q3 2018

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