NASDAQ$PTON

Peloton Interactive · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Peloton's second quarter was marked by strong growth in connected fitness subscribers and total revenue, driven by holiday sales and successful home trial program. However, the company experienced a net loss and an adjusted EBITDA loss.

Peloton Interactive, Inc. reported strong financial results for Q2 2020, with a 77% increase in total revenue to $466.3 million. Ending Connected Fitness Subscribers grew by 96% to 712,005. However, the company experienced a net loss of $(55.4) million and an Adjusted EBITDA loss of ($28.4) million.

  • Connected Fitness Subscribers increased by 96% year-over-year, reaching 712,005.
  • Total revenue grew by 77% year-over-year to $466.3 million.
  • Average Net Monthly Connected Fitness Churn was low at 0.74%.
  • Connected Fitness Subscribers worked out over 24.3 million times during the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$466M

Previous: $263M+77.4%
EPS (adj)

-$0.20

Previous: -$0.24+15.2%
Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions

712.0K

Previous: 362.4K+96.5%
Average Net Monthly Paid Connected Fitness Subscription Churn

0.7%

Previous: 0.5%+42.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$48.8M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$104M

No prior period
Net Income

-$55.4M

Previous: -$55.1M-0.5%
Operating Income

-$61.5M

Previous: -$56M-9.8%
Gross Profit

$197M

Previous: $111M+77.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$533M

No prior period
Total Assets

$2.58B

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$17.1M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Peloton · Revenue · Quarterly

$466M

Q2 2020+77.4%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 7 of 10 quarters(70%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Peloton · $458M total across 2 segments · Q2 2020

  • Connected Fitness Products
    $381M+72.2%
  • Subscription
    $77.1M+106.7%

Forward guidance

Peloton provided guidance for Q3 and full fiscal year 2020. They anticipate 843,000 to 848,000 ending Connected Fitness Subscribers for Q3, growth of 85% at midpoint and $470 million to $480 million total revenue, 50% growth at midpoint. For the full year, they anticipate 920,000 to 930,000 ending Connected Fitness Subscribers, growth of 81% at midpoint and $1.53 billion to $1.55 billion total revenue, 68% growth at midpoint.

Tailwinds

  • 843,000 to 848,000 ending Connected Fitness Subscribers, growth of 85% at midpoint
  • $470 million to $480 million total revenue, 50% growth at midpoint
  • $(35) million to $(25) million Adjusted EBITDA, (6.3)% Adjusted EBITDA margin at midpoint of ranges
  • 920,000 to 930,000 ending Connected Fitness Subscribers, growth of 81% at midpoint
  • $1.53 billion to $1.55 billion total revenue, 68% growth at midpoint

Headwinds

  • $(35) million to $(25) million Adjusted EBITDA, (6.3)% Adjusted EBITDA margin at midpoint of ranges
  • $(115) million to $(95) million Adjusted EBITDA, (6.8)% Adjusted EBITDA margin at midpoint of ranges
  • We expect Average Net Monthly Connected Fitness Churn to stay below 0.95% in Q3 and for the full fiscal year 2020.
  • For Q3 fiscal 2020 and fiscal year 2020 we expect a gross margin of 43% to 44% and 43.5% to 44.5%, respectively.
  • In Q3, we expect Connected Fitness Product gross margin to remain steady year over year

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

14 / 27 earnings

Positive

+44.0%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-38.1%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026+8.5%+3.5%+10.8%
Q2 2026-25.7%-26.4%-35.2%
Q1 2026+13.8%+11.2%-4.3%
Q3 2025-6.9%-2.4%+4.6%
Q2 2025+12.0%+15.3%-18.1%
Q1 2025+9.0%+15.2%+55.5%
Q4 2024+44.0%+43.5%+45.8%
Q3 2024+6.5%+27.0%+13.0%
Q2 2024-23.7%-21.2%-17.3%
Q1 2024+8.3%+1.2%+29.3%
Q4 2023-21.1%-16.2%-36.2%
Q3 2023-11.6%-11.3%-5.2%
Q2 2023+31.3%+22.1%+7.2%
Q1 2023+8.8%+11.0%+54.1%
Q4 2022-21.3%-28.9%-36.9%
Q3 2022-12.7%+12.3%-21.3%
Q2 2022+30.3%+16.6%-24.0%
Q1 2022-38.1%-44.2%-51.6%
Q4 2021-10.2%-13.8%-20.3%
Q3 2021+1.4%+10.2%+24.7%
Q2 2021+0.8%+0.4%-28.6%
Q1 2021+5.8%-11.3%-3.5%
Q4 2020-7.8%-6.3%+34.9%
Q3 2020+21.8%+18.2%+26.7%
Q2 2020-13.4%-14.6%-25.4%
Q4 2019-0.5%+5.7%+43.5%
Q1 2020-6.5%-4.4%+27.2%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019
Q4 2018
Q3 2018

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