NASDAQ$PTON

Peloton Interactive · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Peloton's financial performance declined due to lower demand and higher operating expenses, but subscription revenue continued to grow.

Peloton's Q3 2022 revenue decreased by 24% year-over-year to $964.3 million. The company reported a net loss of $757.1 million, and free cash flow was $(746.7) million. However, subscription revenue grew by 55% year-over-year, reaching $369.9 million, and the company is implementing cost reduction initiatives to improve cash flow and profitability.

  • Total revenue decreased by 24% year-over-year to $964.3 million.
  • Net loss was $(757.1) million, compared to $(8.6) million in the prior year.
  • Ending Connected Fitness Subscriptions grew to 2.96 million, a 42% increase year-over-year.
  • Subscription revenue grew by 55% year-over-year to $369.9 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$964M

Previous: $1.26B-23.6%
EPS (adj)

-$1.15

Previous: -$0.03-3733.3%
Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions

3.0M

Previous: 2.1M+42.2%
Average Net Monthly Paid Connected Fitness Subscription Churn

0.8%

Previous: 0.3%+141.9%
Ending Paid App Subscriptions

976.0K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$244M

Previous: -$168M-45.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$1B

Previous: -$177M-467.0%
Net Income

-$757M

Previous: -$8.6M-8703.5%
Operating Income

-$736M

Previous: -$13.7M-5270.8%
Gross Profit

$184M

Previous: $445M-58.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$879M

Previous: $2.06B-57.2%
Total Assets

$4.41B

Previous: $4.71B-6.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$117M

Previous: $41.7M+180.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Peloton · Revenue · Quarterly

$964M

Q3 2022-23.6%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Peloton · $964M total across 2 segments · Q3 2022

  • Connected Fitness Products
    $594M-41.9%
  • Subscription
    $370M+54.5%

Forward guidance

Peloton expects Q4 revenue to be between $675 million and $700 million, with a gross margin of approximately 31%. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $(120) million and $(115) million.

Tailwinds

  • Accelerated sales due to recent hardware price reductions.
  • Gross margin expected to be approximately 31%.
  • FCF to be meaningfully better in Q4 vs. Q3.
  • Leveraging of fixed costs in Subscription margin in Q4.
  • Small positive impact from the Subscription pricing change.

Headwinds

  • Softer demand than previously forecast.
  • Modest negative impact from Subscription pricing increase starting June 1.
  • Small increase to cancellations due to the Connected Fitness subscription price increase announcement.
  • CF margin significantly impacted by recent pricing changes.
  • Continued headwinds in freight, storage, and logistics due to the reduction in our demand outlook.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

14 / 27 earnings

Positive

+44.0%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-38.1%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026+8.5%+3.5%+10.8%
Q2 2026-25.7%-26.4%-35.2%
Q1 2026+13.8%+11.2%-4.3%
Q3 2025-6.9%-2.4%+4.6%
Q2 2025+12.0%+15.3%-18.1%
Q1 2025+9.0%+15.2%+55.5%
Q4 2024+44.0%+43.5%+45.8%
Q3 2024+6.5%+27.0%+13.0%
Q2 2024-23.7%-21.2%-17.3%
Q1 2024+8.3%+1.2%+29.3%
Q4 2023-21.1%-16.2%-36.2%
Q3 2023-11.6%-11.3%-5.2%
Q2 2023+31.3%+22.1%+7.2%
Q1 2023+8.8%+11.0%+54.1%
Q4 2022-21.3%-28.9%-36.9%
Q3 2022-12.7%+12.3%-21.3%
Q2 2022+30.3%+16.6%-24.0%
Q1 2022-38.1%-44.2%-51.6%
Q4 2021-10.2%-13.8%-20.3%
Q3 2021+1.4%+10.2%+24.7%
Q2 2021+0.8%+0.4%-28.6%
Q1 2021+5.8%-11.3%-3.5%
Q4 2020-7.8%-6.3%+34.9%
Q3 2020+21.8%+18.2%+26.7%
Q2 2020-13.4%-14.6%-25.4%
Q4 2019-0.5%+5.7%+43.5%
Q1 2020-6.5%-4.4%+27.2%
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019
Q4 2018
Q3 2018

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