NASDAQ$PTON
Peloton Interactive · Q3 2020 earnings
Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Peloton's revenue and subscriber base grew significantly, driven by increased demand during the COVID-19 crisis, while also raising full-year guidance.
Peloton Interactive, Inc. reported a 66% increase in total revenue to $524.6 million for Q3 2020, driven by a 94% growth in Connected Fitness Subscribers, which reached over 886,100. The company's average net monthly connected fitness churn was 0.46%, and total members grew to over 2.6 million. Despite a net loss of $55.6 million, adjusted EBITDA was $23.5 million, representing a 4.5% adjusted EBITDA margin. Peloton raised its FY2020 guidance, expecting 1.04 million to 1.05 million ending Connected Fitness Subscribers and $1.72 billion to $1.74 billion in total revenue.
- Total revenue increased by 66% to $524.6 million.
- Ending Connected Fitness Subscribers grew by 94% to over 886,100.
- Average Net Monthly Connected Fitness Churn was 0.46%, the lowest level in four years.
- Adjusted EBITDA was $23.5 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 4.5%.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Peloton · Revenue · Quarterly
$525M
Revenue by segment
Peloton · $518M total across 2 segments · Q3 2020
- Connected Fitness Products$420M+60.6%81.1%
- Subscription$98.2M+92.2%18.9%
Forward guidance
Peloton provided Q4 and full fiscal year 2020 business outlook, including revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Tailwinds
- Expects $500 million to $520 million in total revenue for Q4, representing 128% growth at the midpoint.
- Projects $55 million to $65 million in Adjusted EBITDA for Q4, with an 11.8% Adjusted EBITDA Margin at the midpoint.
- Anticipates subscription contribution margin of 63.0% to 64.0% for Q4.
- Expects better Connected Fitness reactivations and elevated levels of Member engagement to continue.
- Forecasts $1.72 billion to $1.74 billion in total revenue for full fiscal year 2020, an 89% growth at the midpoint.
Headwinds
- Anticipates elongated order-to-delivery windows due to unexpected sharp increase in sales.
- Expects Connected Fitness Product Gross Margin to decline year-over-year to 40.0% to 41.0% due to additional shipping costs and COVID-19 related costs.
- Assumes Tread sales will not resume prior to the end of fiscal year 2020.
- Expects to not materially improve order-to-delivery windows before the end of Q4.
- The unexpected sharp increase in sales has created an imbalance of supply and demand in many geographies.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020
+0.1%
Avg return
Earnings day
+0.5%
Avg return
5 days after
+1.8%
Avg return
30 days after
52%
14 / 27 earnings
Positive
+44.0%
Q4 2024
Best reaction
-38.1%
Q1 2022
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | +8.5% | +3.5% | +10.8% | |
| Q2 2026 | -25.7% | -26.4% | -35.2% | |
| Q1 2026 | +13.8% | +11.2% | -4.3% | |
| Q3 2025 | -6.9% | -2.4% | +4.6% | |
| Q2 2025 | +12.0% | +15.3% | -18.1% | |
| Q1 2025 | +9.0% | +15.2% | +55.5% | |
| Q4 2024 | +44.0% | +43.5% | +45.8% | |
| Q3 2024 | +6.5% | +27.0% | +13.0% | |
| Q2 2024 | -23.7% | -21.2% | -17.3% | |
| Q1 2024 | +8.3% | +1.2% | +29.3% | |
| Q4 2023 | -21.1% | -16.2% | -36.2% | |
| Q3 2023 | -11.6% | -11.3% | -5.2% | |
| Q2 2023 | +31.3% | +22.1% | +7.2% | |
| Q1 2023 | +8.8% | +11.0% | +54.1% | |
| Q4 2022 | -21.3% | -28.9% | -36.9% | |
| Q3 2022 | -12.7% | +12.3% | -21.3% | |
| Q2 2022 | +30.3% | +16.6% | -24.0% | |
| Q1 2022 | -38.1% | -44.2% | -51.6% | |
| Q4 2021 | -10.2% | -13.8% | -20.3% | |
| Q3 2021 | +1.4% | +10.2% | +24.7% | |
| Q2 2021 | +0.8% | +0.4% | -28.6% | |
| Q1 2021 | +5.8% | -11.3% | -3.5% | |
| Q4 2020 | -7.8% | -6.3% | +34.9% | |
| Q3 2020 | +21.8% | +18.2% | +26.7% | |
| Q2 2020 | -13.4% | -14.6% | -25.4% | |
| Q4 2019 | -0.5% | +5.7% | +43.5% | |
| Q1 2020 | -6.5% | -4.4% | +27.2% | |
| Q3 2019 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2019 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2019 | — | — | — | |
| Q4 2018 | — | — | — | |
| Q3 2018 | — | — | — |
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