NASDAQ$LPRO

Open Lending Corporation · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Open Lending reported a strong Q4 2020 with significant increases in certified loans, revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA compared to Q4 2019.

Open Lending Corporation reported a 52% increase in revenue and a 37% increase in Adjusted EBITDA compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. The company facilitated 26,822 certified loans during the quarter, a 19% increase year-over-year. New larger credit union partnerships were announced, and progress was made on OEM relationship expansion.

  • Facilitated 26,822 certified loans, a 19% increase compared to Q4 2019.
  • Total revenue reached $39.6 million, a 52% increase compared to Q4 2019.
  • Gross profit was $36.7 million, a 54.1% increase compared to Q4 2019.
  • GAAP net income was $15.2 million, compared to $17.4 million in Q4 2019.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$39.6M

Previous: $26.1M+52.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.12

Previous: -$2.97+104.0%
Certified Loans

26.8K

Previous: 22.6K+18.9%
Capital Expenditures

$99K

Previous: $33K+200.0%
Free Cash Flow

$8.17M

Previous: $12.6M-35.1%
Net Income

$15.2M

Previous: $17.4M-12.8%
Operating Income

$24.3M

Previous: $17.4M+39.9%
Gross Profit

$36.7M

Previous: $23.8M+54.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$102M

Previous: $7.68M+1222.5%
Total Assets

$294M

Previous: $79.2M+271.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$152K

Previous: $487K-68.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Open Lending · Revenue · Quarterly

$39.6M

Q4 2020+52%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 8 of 11 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Open Lending · $39.6M total across 3 segments · Q4 2020

  • Profit Share
    $25.9M
  • Program Fees
    $12.4M
  • Claims Admin & Other Service Fees
    $1.32M

Forward guidance

Based on the fourth quarter results and trends into 2021, the Company is reaffirming its previously issued guidance of the following:

Tailwinds

  • Total Certified Loans 161,000 - 206,000
  • Total Revenue $184 - 234 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA $125 - 168 million
  • Adjusted Operating Cash Flow $81 - 111 million
  • The guidance provided above includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. securities laws.

Headwinds

  • While the financial guidance takes into account the anticipated impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of the pandemic is unprecedented
  • The future effect of the pandemic on the global economy and our financial results remains highly uncertain
  • Our actual results may differ materially.
  • See “Forward-Looking Statements” below.
  • There may be additional risks that the Company presently does not know or that they currently believe are immaterial that could also cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+5.8%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

15 / 28 earnings

Positive

+26.7%

Q1 2023

Best reaction

-57.6%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+18.7%+15.6%+31.9%
Q4 2025+19.2%+19.0%+19.8%
Q3 2025-8.9%+3.1%+13.7%
Q1 2025+19.2%+29.0%+29.7%
Q4 2024-57.6%-63.0%-53.6%
Q3 2024-12.5%-6.5%-13.1%
Q2 2024-0.2%-4.4%-1.6%
Q1 2024+6.3%+12.6%+32.6%
Q4 2023-7.8%-11.3%-21.3%
Q3 2023-7.6%-10.1%+5.5%
Q2 2023-23.8%-20.9%-22.1%
Q1 2023+26.7%+27.8%+44.8%
Q4 2022-21.2%-16.0%-14.5%
Q3 2022+0.7%-5.7%+4.4%
Q2 2022-0.6%-1.2%-14.5%
Q1 2022-7.4%-17.9%-13.7%
Q4 2021+21.6%+26.0%+20.6%
Q3 2021-17.4%-11.3%-33.3%
Q2 2021+1.2%-8.9%+6.9%
Q1 2021-1.9%+0.7%+8.5%
Q4 2020+11.9%+21.7%+16.1%
Q3 2019+2.0%+1.8%+11.9%
Q3 2020+2.8%+7.9%+19.9%
Q4 2019+5.3%+8.7%+16.7%
Q2 2019+5.3%+8.7%+16.7%
Q1 2020+5.3%+8.7%+16.7%
Q1 2019+5.3%+8.7%+16.7%
Q2 2020-2.4%+0.3%+16.4%

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