NASDAQ$LPRO

Open Lending Corporation · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Open Lending reported a record quarter with significant increases in certified loans, revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA compared to Q3 2020.

Open Lending reported a strong third quarter in 2021, marked by a 138% increase in certified loans, a 98% increase in revenue, and a 113% increase in Adjusted EBITDA compared to the third quarter of 2020. The company added 16 new accounts, including four tier one accounts, and experienced substantial growth in their OEM segment.

  • Certified loans increased by 138% compared to Q3 2020, reaching 49,332 loans.
  • Total revenue grew by 98% to $58.9 million compared to $29.8 million in Q3 2020.
  • Net income was $29.4 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $(71.1) million in Q3 2020.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 113% to $42.1 million compared to $19.8 million in Q3 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$58.9M

Previous: $29.8M+97.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.23

Previous: -$0.62+137.1%
Certified Loans

49.3K

Previous: 20.7K+138.4%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

71.0%

Previous: 66.0%+7.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.79M

Previous: -$1.1M-62.7%
Free Cash Flow

$27.6M

Previous: -$72.2M+138.3%
Net Income

$29.4M

Previous: -$71.1M+141.4%
Operating Income

$40.7M

Previous: $19.6M+108.3%
Gross Profit

$52.5M

Previous: $27.3M+92.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$90.9M

Previous: $115M-21.1%
Total Assets

$293M

Previous: $295M-0.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.1M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Open Lending · Revenue · Quarterly

$58.9M

Q3 2021+97.9%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 8 of 11 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Open Lending · $58.9M total across 3 segments · Q3 2021

  • Profit Share
    $35.4M+91.2%
  • Program Fees
    $21.6M+114.5%
  • Claims Admin & Other Service Fees
    $1.81M+59.8%

Forward guidance

Open Lending narrowed its previous guidance ranges for the full year 2021, expressing confidence in the business's resilience despite inflated car values and semiconductor chip shortages.

Tailwinds

  • Total Certified Loans: 165,000 - 174,000
  • Total Revenue: $200 - $212 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $140 - $150 million
  • Adjusted Operating Cash Flow: $110 - $125 million
  • Company is still within the guidance ranges provided 18 months ago, which demonstrates the predictability of our business model

Headwinds

  • Guidance includes forward-looking statements withing the meaning of U.S. securities laws
  • Financial guidance takes into account the continuing impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic
  • The impact of the pandemic has been unprecedented and the future effect of the pandemic on the global economy and our financial results remains uncertain
  • Actual results may differ materially
  • Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including general economic, political and business conditions

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

-0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+5.8%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

15 / 28 earnings

Positive

+26.7%

Q1 2023

Best reaction

-57.6%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+18.7%+15.6%+31.9%
Q4 2025+19.2%+19.0%+19.8%
Q3 2025-8.9%+3.1%+13.7%
Q1 2025+19.2%+29.0%+29.7%
Q4 2024-57.6%-63.0%-53.6%
Q3 2024-12.5%-6.5%-13.1%
Q2 2024-0.2%-4.4%-1.6%
Q1 2024+6.3%+12.6%+32.6%
Q4 2023-7.8%-11.3%-21.3%
Q3 2023-7.6%-10.1%+5.5%
Q2 2023-23.8%-20.9%-22.1%
Q1 2023+26.7%+27.8%+44.8%
Q4 2022-21.2%-16.0%-14.5%
Q3 2022+0.7%-5.7%+4.4%
Q2 2022-0.6%-1.2%-14.5%
Q1 2022-7.4%-17.9%-13.7%
Q4 2021+21.6%+26.0%+20.6%
Q3 2021-17.4%-11.3%-33.3%
Q2 2021+1.2%-8.9%+6.9%
Q1 2021-1.9%+0.7%+8.5%
Q4 2020+11.9%+21.7%+16.1%
Q3 2019+2.0%+1.8%+11.9%
Q3 2020+2.8%+7.9%+19.9%
Q4 2019+5.3%+8.7%+16.7%
Q2 2019+5.3%+8.7%+16.7%
Q1 2020+5.3%+8.7%+16.7%
Q1 2019+5.3%+8.7%+16.7%
Q2 2020-2.4%+0.3%+16.4%

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