NASDAQ$EYE

National Vision Holdings Inc. · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong Q4 results, reflecting successful execution on store-level transformation initiatives and targeted initiatives to broaden appeal and expand customer base; actions were taken to reduce costs and strengthen profitability.

National Vision Holdings, Inc. reported a 3.9% increase in net revenue to $437.3 million for Q4 2024, driven by new store sales and adjusted comparable store sales growth. The company's adjusted operating income increased to $3.2 million, reflecting the benefits of transformation initiatives and cost management.

  • Net revenue from continuing operations increased by 3.9% to $437.3 million compared to Q4 2023.
  • Comparable store sales growth was 2.6%, with Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth of 1.5%.
  • Net loss from continuing operations was $(29.4) million, with Diluted EPS from continuing operations of $(0.37).
  • Adjusted Operating Income from continuing operations increased to $3.2 million from $(2.7) million in Q4 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$437M

Previous: $506M-13.7%
EPS (adj)

-$0.04

Previous: -$0.02-100.0%
Comparable Store Sales Growth

2.6%

Previous: 6.0%-56.7%
Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth

1.5%

Previous: 5.7%-73.7%
Adjusted Operating Income

$3.23M

No prior period
Adjusted Operating Margin

0.7%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$25.8M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

5.9%

No prior period
Adjusted SG&A % of Net Revenue

51.8%

No prior period
Net Income

-$28.6M

Previous: -$16M-78.8%
Operating Income

-$25.6M

Previous: -$13.3M-92.8%

Revenue & EPS history

National Vision · Revenue · Quarterly

$437M

Q4 2024-13.7%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National Vision · $532M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Net Product Sales
    $436M+6.1%
  • Services and Plans
    $96.8M+9.4%

Forward guidance

The Company is providing the following outlook for the 53 weeks ending January 3, 2026. The Company estimates the 53rd week of fiscal 2025 will contribute approximately $35 million to net revenue, and approximately $3 million to adjusted operating income.

Tailwinds

  • New Stores: 30-35
  • Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth: 0.5% - 3.5%
  • Net Revenue: $1.901 billion - $1.955 billion
  • Adjusted Operating Income: $73 million - $88 million
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.52 - $0.64

Headwinds

  • Macro-economic environment may impact consumer demand.
  • Constraints on exam capacity may impact consumer demand.
  • Ultimate impact of macro-economic factors on the Company’s financial outlook remains uncertain.
  • Subject to dynamic market conditions.
  • Subject to unexpected disruptions including additional regulatory actions impacting international trade such as tariffs, and other macroeconomic risks and uncertainties.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

21 / 39 earnings

Positive

+16.9%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-38.8%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.8%-0.1%
Q4 2025+9.1%+0.6%-11.0%
Q3 2025-3.6%-5.7%+14.4%
Q1 2025+16.9%+40.7%+57.8%
Q4 2024+11.6%+10.7%+12.1%
Q3 2024-4.7%-3.1%-8.0%
Q2 2024-21.6%-26.1%-30.7%
Q1 2024-15.2%-16.4%-19.3%
Q4 2023+14.7%+17.9%+11.0%
Q3 2023+9.4%+14.1%+11.5%
Q2 2023-5.9%-8.4%-19.5%
Q1 2023+5.9%+4.7%+14.7%
Q4 2022-38.8%-40.1%-49.6%
Q3 2022+12.7%+12.8%+5.3%
Q2 2022+9.2%+13.7%+12.7%
Q1 2022-31.5%-22.3%-17.8%
Q4 2021-4.7%+0.8%+16.4%
Q3 2021-16.4%-22.3%-23.8%
Q2 2021-0.8%+1.0%+7.8%
Q1 2021+6.5%+6.3%+2.9%
Q3 2020+2.5%+6.4%-2.1%
Q2 2020-1.8%+3.8%+16.1%
Q1 2020+10.0%+2.2%+32.5%
Q4 2019+4.0%+7.4%-41.1%
Q3 2019+11.8%+8.8%+23.8%
Q2 2019+8.2%+7.9%-4.8%
Q1 2019+3.3%+2.3%-1.5%
Q4 2018-1.4%-3.1%-7.7%
Q3 2018-1.7%-7.8%-27.8%
Q2 2017-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q2 2018-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q1 2018+2.3%+6.4%+10.4%
Q1 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q2 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q4 2017-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q3 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q1 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q3 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q4 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%

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