NASDAQ$EYE

National Vision Holdings Inc. · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 financial results, showing revenue increase but a net loss due to expenses, including Walmart partnership termination.

National Vision Holdings reported an 8.0% increase in net revenue for Q4 2023, reaching $506.4 million, driven by comparable store sales growth and new store sales. However, the company experienced a net loss of $(16.0) million, or $(0.20) per diluted share, impacted by expenses related to the termination of the Walmart partnership. Adjusted diluted EPS was $(0.02).

  • Net revenue increased by 8.0% to $506.4 million compared to Q4 2022.
  • Comparable store sales growth was 6.0%, and Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth was 5.7%.
  • Net loss was $(16.0) million, with a diluted EPS of $(0.20), including expenses from the Walmart partnership termination.
  • Adjusted Operating Income was $0.3 million, compared to $(6.8) million in Q4 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$506M

Previous: $469M+8.0%
EPS (adj)

-$0.02

Previous: -$0.08+75.0%
Comparable Store Sales Growth

6.0%

Previous: -5.7%+205.3%
Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth

5.7%

Previous: -2.4%+337.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$32.8M

Previous: $27.4M-219.6%
Net Income

-$16M

Previous: -$9.3M-71.9%
Operating Income

-$13.3M

Previous: -$9.79M-35.5%
Gross Profit

$235M

Previous: $247M-4.6%
R&D Expense

$0.00

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$5.13M

Previous: $2.97M+72.7%

Revenue & EPS history

National Vision · Revenue · Quarterly

$506M

Q4 2023+8%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National Vision · $532M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Net Product Sales
    $436M+6.1%
  • Services and Plans
    $96.8M+9.4%

Forward guidance

National Vision provided its fiscal year 2024 outlook, projecting adjusted comparable store sales growth between 2.0% and 4.0%, net revenue between $1.965 billion and $2.005 billion, adjusted operating income between $61 million and $76 million, and adjusted diluted EPS between $0.50 and $0.65.

Tailwinds

  • New Stores: 65 - 70
  • Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth: 2.0% - 4.0%
  • Net Revenue: $1.965 - $2.005 billion
  • Adjusted Operating Income: $61 - $76 million
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.50 - $0.65

Headwinds

  • The fiscal 2024 outlook reflects current expected or estimated impacts related to macro-economic factors, including inflation, geopolitical instability and risks of recession, as well as constraints on exam capacity
  • The ultimate impact of these factors on the Company’s financial outlook remains uncertain with dynamic market conditions and the outlook shown below assumes no material deterioration to the Company’s current business operations as a result of such factors or as a result of the termination of the Walmart partnership.
  • The Company is not able to reconcile these forward-looking non-GAAP measures to GAAP without unreasonable efforts because it is not possible to predict with a reasonable degree of certainty the actual impact of certain items and unanticipated events, including taxes and non-recurring items, which would be included in GAAP results.
  • The impact of such items and unanticipated events could be potentially significant.
  • The fiscal 2024 outlook is forward-looking, subject to significant business, economic, regulatory and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of the Company and its management, and based upon assumptions with respect to future decisions, which are subject to change.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

21 / 39 earnings

Positive

+16.9%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-38.8%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.8%-0.1%
Q4 2025+9.1%+0.6%-11.0%
Q3 2025-3.6%-5.7%+14.4%
Q1 2025+16.9%+40.7%+57.8%
Q4 2024+11.6%+10.7%+12.1%
Q3 2024-4.7%-3.1%-8.0%
Q2 2024-21.6%-26.1%-30.7%
Q1 2024-15.2%-16.4%-19.3%
Q4 2023+14.7%+17.9%+11.0%
Q3 2023+9.4%+14.1%+11.5%
Q2 2023-5.9%-8.4%-19.5%
Q1 2023+5.9%+4.7%+14.7%
Q4 2022-38.8%-40.1%-49.6%
Q3 2022+12.7%+12.8%+5.3%
Q2 2022+9.2%+13.7%+12.7%
Q1 2022-31.5%-22.3%-17.8%
Q4 2021-4.7%+0.8%+16.4%
Q3 2021-16.4%-22.3%-23.8%
Q2 2021-0.8%+1.0%+7.8%
Q1 2021+6.5%+6.3%+2.9%
Q3 2020+2.5%+6.4%-2.1%
Q2 2020-1.8%+3.8%+16.1%
Q1 2020+10.0%+2.2%+32.5%
Q4 2019+4.0%+7.4%-41.1%
Q3 2019+11.8%+8.8%+23.8%
Q2 2019+8.2%+7.9%-4.8%
Q1 2019+3.3%+2.3%-1.5%
Q4 2018-1.4%-3.1%-7.7%
Q3 2018-1.7%-7.8%-27.8%
Q2 2017-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q2 2018-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q1 2018+2.3%+6.4%+10.4%
Q1 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q2 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q4 2017-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q3 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q1 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q3 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q4 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%

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