NASDAQ$EYE

National Vision Holdings Inc. · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

National Vision reported strong Q4 2019 financial results, marked by double-digit revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA.

National Vision Holdings, Inc. reported a 12.9% increase in net revenue to $401.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2019. The company's net income increased by 121.3% to $3.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 37.9% to $39.6 million. Diluted EPS increased 120.2% to $0.05, while adjusted diluted EPS increased 692.0% to $0.11.

  • Net revenue increased by 12.9% to $401.8 million.
  • Comparable store sales growth was 10.1%, with adjusted comparable store sales growth of 8.1%.
  • Net income increased by 121.3% to $3.9 million, and adjusted net income increased by 735.5% to $8.7 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 37.9% to $39.6 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$402M

Previous: $356M+12.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.11

Previous: $0.01+1000.0%
Comparable Store Sales Growth

10.1%

Previous: 4.3%+134.9%
Adjusted EBITDA

$39.6M

Previous: $28.7M+37.9%
Capital Expenditures

$24.9M

Previous: $25.7M-3.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$30.7M

Previous: -$35M+12.3%
Net Income

$3.9M

Previous: -$18.4M+121.1%
Operating Income

$8.36M

Previous: -$19.4M+143.1%
Gross Profit

$214M

Previous: $182M+17.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$39.3M

Previous: $17.1M+129.6%
Total Assets

$2.03B

Previous: $1.66B+22.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.83M

Previous: $7.19M-74.5%

Revenue & EPS history

National Vision · Revenue · Quarterly

$402M

Q4 2019+12.9%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 10 of 13 quarters(77%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National Vision · $532M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Net Product Sales
    $436M+6.1%
  • Services and Plans
    $96.8M+9.4%

Forward guidance

National Vision provided its outlook for fiscal year 2020, which includes 53 weeks. The company estimates that the 53rd week will contribute approximately $35 million to net revenue, with an approximately break-even impact to Adjusted Diluted EPS.

Tailwinds

  • The company anticipates opening approximately 75 new stores.
  • Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth is expected to be between 3% and 5%.
  • Net Revenue is projected to be in the range of $1.875 billion to $1.905 billion.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $210 million and $215 million.
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS is projected to be between $0.80 and $0.85.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

21 / 39 earnings

Positive

+16.9%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-38.8%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.8%-0.1%+9.9%
Q4 2025+9.1%+0.6%-11.0%
Q3 2025-3.6%-5.7%+14.4%
Q1 2025+16.9%+40.7%+57.8%
Q4 2024+11.6%+10.7%+12.1%
Q3 2024-4.7%-3.1%-8.0%
Q2 2024-21.6%-26.1%-30.7%
Q1 2024-15.2%-16.4%-19.3%
Q4 2023+14.7%+17.9%+11.0%
Q3 2023+9.4%+14.1%+11.5%
Q2 2023-5.9%-8.4%-19.5%
Q1 2023+5.9%+4.7%+14.7%
Q4 2022-38.8%-40.1%-49.6%
Q3 2022+12.7%+12.8%+5.3%
Q2 2022+9.2%+13.7%+12.7%
Q1 2022-31.5%-22.3%-17.8%
Q4 2021-4.7%+0.8%+16.4%
Q3 2021-16.4%-22.3%-23.8%
Q2 2021-0.8%+1.0%+7.8%
Q1 2021+6.5%+6.3%+2.9%
Q3 2020+2.5%+6.4%-2.1%
Q2 2020-1.8%+3.8%+16.1%
Q1 2020+10.0%+2.2%+32.5%
Q4 2019+4.0%+7.4%-41.1%
Q3 2019+11.8%+8.8%+23.8%
Q2 2019+8.2%+7.9%-4.8%
Q1 2019+3.3%+2.3%-1.5%
Q4 2018-1.4%-3.1%-7.7%
Q3 2018-1.7%-7.8%-27.8%
Q2 2017-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q2 2018-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q1 2018+2.3%+6.4%+10.4%
Q1 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q2 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q4 2017-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q3 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q1 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q3 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q4 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%

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