NASDAQ$EYE

National Vision Holdings Inc. · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial results generally in line with expectations, reflecting continued strength in managed care business and progress on strategic initiatives.

National Vision Holdings reported a 3.1% increase in net revenue to $525.3 million for Q2 2023. Net income decreased by 42.3% to $5.6 million, with a diluted EPS of $0.07. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2023 guidance, expecting Adjusted Operating Income and Adjusted Diluted EPS to be at or above the midpoint of the range.

  • Net revenue increased 3.1% to $525.3 million compared to Q2 2022.
  • Comparable store sales growth was (0.1%) and Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth was 1.0%.
  • The Company opened 24 new stores, closed one store, and ended the quarter with 1,381 stores.
  • Net income decreased 42.3% to $5.6 million compared with the second quarter of 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$525M

Previous: $510M+3.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.17

Previous: $0.21-19.0%
Comparable Store Sales Growth

-0.1%

Previous: -11.0%+99.1%
Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth

1.0%

Previous: -12.4%+108.1%
Adjusted Operating Income

$16.4M

Previous: $27.8M-40.8%
Adjusted Operating Margin

3.1%

Previous: 5.5%-43.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$54.1M

Previous: -$55.7M+2.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$48.5M

Previous: -$46M-5.5%
Net Income

$5.61M

Previous: $9.73M-42.3%
Operating Income

$7.73M

Previous: $18.4M-58.0%
Gross Profit

-$247M

Previous: -$234M-5.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$255M

Previous: $254M+0.1%
Total Assets

$2.33B

Previous: $2.28B+2.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.47M

Previous: $3.64M+50.4%

Revenue & EPS history

National Vision · Revenue · Quarterly

$525M

Q2 2023+3.1%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National Vision · $525M total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • Net Product Sales
    $433M+2.7%
  • Services and Plans
    $92.4M+5.1%

Forward guidance

National Vision reaffirmed its fiscal 2023 guidance, expecting Adjusted Operating Income and Adjusted Diluted EPS to be at or above the midpoint of the range.

Tailwinds

  • New Stores: 65 to 70
  • Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth: 0% to 3%
  • Net Revenue: $2.075 billion to $2.135 billion
  • Adjusted Operating Income: $48 million to $66 million
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.42 to $0.60

Headwinds

  • Fiscal 2023 outlook reflects current expected or estimated impacts related to macro-economic factors, including inflation, geopolitical instability and risks of recession
  • Constraints on exam capacity
  • The ultimate impact of these factors on the Company’s financial outlook remains uncertain with dynamic market conditions
  • The outlook shown below assumes no material deterioration to the Company’s current business operations as a result of such factors or as a result of the termination of the Walmart partnership.
  • Actual results may vary and those variations may be material.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

21 / 39 earnings

Positive

+16.9%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-38.8%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.8%-0.1%
Q4 2025+9.1%+0.6%-11.0%
Q3 2025-3.6%-5.7%+14.4%
Q1 2025+16.9%+40.7%+57.8%
Q4 2024+11.6%+10.7%+12.1%
Q3 2024-4.7%-3.1%-8.0%
Q2 2024-21.6%-26.1%-30.7%
Q1 2024-15.2%-16.4%-19.3%
Q4 2023+14.7%+17.9%+11.0%
Q3 2023+9.4%+14.1%+11.5%
Q2 2023-5.9%-8.4%-19.5%
Q1 2023+5.9%+4.7%+14.7%
Q4 2022-38.8%-40.1%-49.6%
Q3 2022+12.7%+12.8%+5.3%
Q2 2022+9.2%+13.7%+12.7%
Q1 2022-31.5%-22.3%-17.8%
Q4 2021-4.7%+0.8%+16.4%
Q3 2021-16.4%-22.3%-23.8%
Q2 2021-0.8%+1.0%+7.8%
Q1 2021+6.5%+6.3%+2.9%
Q3 2020+2.5%+6.4%-2.1%
Q2 2020-1.8%+3.8%+16.1%
Q1 2020+10.0%+2.2%+32.5%
Q4 2019+4.0%+7.4%-41.1%
Q3 2019+11.8%+8.8%+23.8%
Q2 2019+8.2%+7.9%-4.8%
Q1 2019+3.3%+2.3%-1.5%
Q4 2018-1.4%-3.1%-7.7%
Q3 2018-1.7%-7.8%-27.8%
Q2 2017-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q2 2018-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q1 2018+2.3%+6.4%+10.4%
Q1 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q2 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q4 2017-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q3 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q1 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q3 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q4 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%

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