NASDAQ$EYE

National Vision Holdings Inc. · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

National Vision reported an exceptionally strong Q3, establishing a new record for quarterly profit and experiencing the best comp sales growth in 18 years.

National Vision Holdings, Inc. reported a strong third quarter with a 12.4% increase in net revenue to $485.4 million and a comparable store sales growth of 11.6%. Net income increased significantly to $35.3 million, with diluted EPS rising to $0.42. The company opened 18 new stores, reaching a total of 1,201 stores.

  • Net revenue increased 12.4% to $485.4 million.
  • Comparable store sales growth of 11.6%; Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth of 12.4%.
  • Net income increased 2,860% to $35.3 million; Diluted EPS increased 2,782% to $0.42.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 89.3% to $88.1 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$485M

Previous: $432M+12.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.54

Previous: $0.18+200.0%
Comparable Store Sales Growth

11.6%

No prior period
Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth

12.4%

No prior period
Adjusted Operating Income

$67.7M

Previous: $26.1M+159.4%
Adjusted EBITDA

$88.1M

Previous: $46.6M+89.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$40.8M

Previous: -$76.5M+46.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$5.55M

Previous: -$75.3M+92.6%
Net Income

$35.3M

Previous: $1.19M+2860.5%
Operating Income

$54.8M

Previous: $11.1M+393.1%
Gross Profit

-$210M

Previous: $227M-192.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$377M

Previous: $94.1M+300.7%
Total Assets

$2.31B

Previous: $2.08B+11.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.89M

Previous: $6.12M-52.8%

Revenue & EPS history

National Vision · Revenue · Quarterly

$485M

Q3 2020+12.4%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National Vision · $532M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Net Product Sales
    $436M+6.1%
  • Services and Plans
    $96.8M+9.4%

Forward guidance

The Company is providing the following outlook for the 14 week and 53 week periods ending January 2, 2021, respectively. For the Company’s fourth quarter and fiscal 2020 outlook, the Company estimates that the 53rd week will contribute approximately $35 million to net revenue with an approximately break-even impact to Adjusted Diluted EPS due to the net change in margin on unearned revenue.

Tailwinds

  • New Stores ~5
  • Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth 5% - 9%
  • Net Revenue $460 - $475 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA $42 - $47 million
  • Adjusted Operating Income $20 - $25 million

Headwinds

  • Adjusted Diluted EPS $0.10 - $0.14
  • New Stores~57
  • Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth1 (6.4%) - (7.4%)
  • Net Revenue $1.675 - $1.690 billion
  • Adjusted EBITDA $176.5 - $181.5 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

21 / 39 earnings

Positive

+16.9%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-38.8%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.8%-0.1%+9.9%
Q4 2025+9.1%+0.6%-11.0%
Q3 2025-3.6%-5.7%+14.4%
Q1 2025+16.9%+40.7%+57.8%
Q4 2024+11.6%+10.7%+12.1%
Q3 2024-4.7%-3.1%-8.0%
Q2 2024-21.6%-26.1%-30.7%
Q1 2024-15.2%-16.4%-19.3%
Q4 2023+14.7%+17.9%+11.0%
Q3 2023+9.4%+14.1%+11.5%
Q2 2023-5.9%-8.4%-19.5%
Q1 2023+5.9%+4.7%+14.7%
Q4 2022-38.8%-40.1%-49.6%
Q3 2022+12.7%+12.8%+5.3%
Q2 2022+9.2%+13.7%+12.7%
Q1 2022-31.5%-22.3%-17.8%
Q4 2021-4.7%+0.8%+16.4%
Q3 2021-16.4%-22.3%-23.8%
Q2 2021-0.8%+1.0%+7.8%
Q1 2021+6.5%+6.3%+2.9%
Q3 2020+2.5%+6.4%-2.1%
Q2 2020-1.8%+3.8%+16.1%
Q1 2020+10.0%+2.2%+32.5%
Q4 2019+4.0%+7.4%-41.1%
Q3 2019+11.8%+8.8%+23.8%
Q2 2019+8.2%+7.9%-4.8%
Q1 2019+3.3%+2.3%-1.5%
Q4 2018-1.4%-3.1%-7.7%
Q3 2018-1.7%-7.8%-27.8%
Q2 2017-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q2 2018-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q1 2018+2.3%+6.4%+10.4%
Q1 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q2 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q4 2017-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q3 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q1 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q3 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q4 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%

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