NASDAQ$EYE

National Vision Holdings Inc. · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

National Vision's financial performance declined in Q4 2022, with revenue and earnings decreasing compared to the same period in 2021.

National Vision Holdings, Inc. reported a decrease in net revenue and net income for the fourth quarter of 2022. Net revenue decreased by 1.9% to $468.9 million, and the company experienced a net loss of $9.3 million compared to a net income of $6.2 million in Q4 2021. The company is focusing on strategic initiatives including expanding exam capacity, digitizing stores, leveraging omni-channel capabilities and capitalizing on whitespace opportunity.

  • Net revenue decreased by 1.9% to $468.9 million.
  • Comparable store sales growth was (5.7)% and Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth was (2.4)%.
  • Net loss was $9.3 million, with a diluted loss per share of $(0.12).
  • Adjusted Operating Income decreased to $(6.8) million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$469M

Previous: $478M-1.9%
EPS (adj)

-$0.08

Previous: $0.13-161.5%
Comparable Store Sales Growth

-5.7%

No prior period
Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth

-2.4%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$27.4M

Previous: $76.8M-64.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$29.6M

Previous: $158M-118.7%
Net Income

-$9.3M

Previous: $35.1M-126.5%
Operating Income

-$9.79M

Previous: $56.9M-117.2%
Gross Profit

$247M

Previous: $280M-11.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$229M

Previous: $374M-38.6%
Total Assets

$2.29B

Previous: $2.33B-1.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.97M

Previous: $10.7M-72.3%

Revenue & EPS history

National Vision · Revenue · Quarterly

$469M

Q4 2022-1.9%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National Vision · $469M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Net Product Sales
    $383M
  • Services and Plans
    $86.2M

Forward guidance

The Company’s fiscal 2023 outlook reflects current expected or estimated impacts related to macro-economic factors, including inflation, geopolitical instability and risks of recession, as well as constraints on exam capacity; however, the ultimate impact of these factors on the Company’s financial outlook remains uncertain with dynamic market conditions and the outlook shown below assumes no material deterioration to the Company’s current business operations as a result of such factors.

Tailwinds

  • New Stores: 65 - 70
  • Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth: 0% - 3%
  • Net Revenue: $2.075 - $2.135 billion

Headwinds

  • Adjusted Operating Income: $48 - $66 million
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS1: $0.42 - $0.60
  • Depreciation and Amortization2: $104 - $106 million
  • Interest3: ~$3 million
  • Tax Rate4: ~26%

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

21 / 39 earnings

Positive

+16.9%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-38.8%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.8%-0.1%
Q4 2025+9.1%+0.6%-11.0%
Q3 2025-3.6%-5.7%+14.4%
Q1 2025+16.9%+40.7%+57.8%
Q4 2024+11.6%+10.7%+12.1%
Q3 2024-4.7%-3.1%-8.0%
Q2 2024-21.6%-26.1%-30.7%
Q1 2024-15.2%-16.4%-19.3%
Q4 2023+14.7%+17.9%+11.0%
Q3 2023+9.4%+14.1%+11.5%
Q2 2023-5.9%-8.4%-19.5%
Q1 2023+5.9%+4.7%+14.7%
Q4 2022-38.8%-40.1%-49.6%
Q3 2022+12.7%+12.8%+5.3%
Q2 2022+9.2%+13.7%+12.7%
Q1 2022-31.5%-22.3%-17.8%
Q4 2021-4.7%+0.8%+16.4%
Q3 2021-16.4%-22.3%-23.8%
Q2 2021-0.8%+1.0%+7.8%
Q1 2021+6.5%+6.3%+2.9%
Q3 2020+2.5%+6.4%-2.1%
Q2 2020-1.8%+3.8%+16.1%
Q1 2020+10.0%+2.2%+32.5%
Q4 2019+4.0%+7.4%-41.1%
Q3 2019+11.8%+8.8%+23.8%
Q2 2019+8.2%+7.9%-4.8%
Q1 2019+3.3%+2.3%-1.5%
Q4 2018-1.4%-3.1%-7.7%
Q3 2018-1.7%-7.8%-27.8%
Q2 2017-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q2 2018-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q1 2018+2.3%+6.4%+10.4%
Q1 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q2 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q4 2017-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q3 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q1 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q3 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q4 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro