NASDAQ$EYE

National Vision Holdings Inc. · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported third quarter financial results and updated fiscal year 2021 outlook.

National Vision Holdings, Inc. reported a net revenue increase of 19.9% to $518.0 million compared to the third quarter of 2019, with a net income of $41.0 million and a diluted EPS of $0.45.

  • Net revenue increased 19.9% to $518.0 million compared to the third quarter of 2019.
  • Comparable store sales growth was 15.7%; Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth was 13.3%.
  • Net income increased 3,339% to $41.0 million compared to the third quarter of 2019.
  • The board authorized a $50 million share repurchase program and the company made a $50 million Term Loan A prepayment.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$518M

Previous: $485M+6.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.38

Previous: $0.54-29.6%
Comparable Store Sales Growth

15.7%

Previous: 11.6%+35.3%
Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth

13.3%

Previous: 12.4%+7.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$58.9M

Previous: -$40.8M-44.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$17.9M

Previous: -$5.55M-223.1%
Net Income

$41M

Previous: $35.3M+16.2%
Operating Income

$50.7M

Previous: $54.8M-7.5%
Gross Profit

-$226M

Previous: -$210M-7.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$439M

Previous: $377M+16.5%
Total Assets

$2.41B

Previous: $2.31B+4.2%

Revenue & EPS history

National Vision · Revenue · Quarterly

$518M

Q3 2021+6.7%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National Vision · $518M total across 2 segments · Q3 2021

  • Net Product Sales
    $426M
  • Services and Plans
    $92.4M

Forward guidance

The Company’s updated fiscal 2021 outlook reflects the currently expected impacts related to COVID-19, however, the ultimate impacts of COVID-19 on the Company’s financial outlook remain uncertain.

Tailwinds

  • New Stores ~75
  • Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth 21% - 22%
  • Net Revenue $2.04 - $2.06 billion
  • Adjusted Operating Income $180 - $187 million
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS $1.28 - $1.33

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

21 / 39 earnings

Positive

+16.9%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-38.8%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.8%-0.1%
Q4 2025+9.1%+0.6%-11.0%
Q3 2025-3.6%-5.7%+14.4%
Q1 2025+16.9%+40.7%+57.8%
Q4 2024+11.6%+10.7%+12.1%
Q3 2024-4.7%-3.1%-8.0%
Q2 2024-21.6%-26.1%-30.7%
Q1 2024-15.2%-16.4%-19.3%
Q4 2023+14.7%+17.9%+11.0%
Q3 2023+9.4%+14.1%+11.5%
Q2 2023-5.9%-8.4%-19.5%
Q1 2023+5.9%+4.7%+14.7%
Q4 2022-38.8%-40.1%-49.6%
Q3 2022+12.7%+12.8%+5.3%
Q2 2022+9.2%+13.7%+12.7%
Q1 2022-31.5%-22.3%-17.8%
Q4 2021-4.7%+0.8%+16.4%
Q3 2021-16.4%-22.3%-23.8%
Q2 2021-0.8%+1.0%+7.8%
Q1 2021+6.5%+6.3%+2.9%
Q3 2020+2.5%+6.4%-2.1%
Q2 2020-1.8%+3.8%+16.1%
Q1 2020+10.0%+2.2%+32.5%
Q4 2019+4.0%+7.4%-41.1%
Q3 2019+11.8%+8.8%+23.8%
Q2 2019+8.2%+7.9%-4.8%
Q1 2019+3.3%+2.3%-1.5%
Q4 2018-1.4%-3.1%-7.7%
Q3 2018-1.7%-7.8%-27.8%
Q2 2017-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q2 2018-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q1 2018+2.3%+6.4%+10.4%
Q1 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q2 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q4 2017-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q3 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q1 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q3 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q4 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%

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