NASDAQ$EYE

National Vision Holdings Inc. · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial results for the third quarter ended September 28, 2024, reflecting ongoing strength in managed care with growth in America’s Best as transformation initiatives progress.

National Vision Holdings, Inc. reported a 2.9% increase in net revenue to $451.5 million, driven by new store sales and comparable store sales growth. The company experienced a net loss of $(8.4) million, or $(0.11) per share, but an adjusted EPS of $0.12. They reaffirmed their fiscal 2024 outlook for key metrics and updated capital expenditure expectations.

  • Net revenue increased by 2.9% to $451.5 million.
  • Comparable store sales growth was 1.4%, with adjusted comparable store sales growth of 0.9%.
  • The company opened 18 new stores, closing two America’s Best and one Military store, ending the quarter with 1,231 stores.
  • Adjusted Operating Income increased 22.2% to $14.3 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$452M

Previous: $532M-15.2%
EPS

-$0.11

Previous: $0.15-173.3%
Comparable Store Sales Growth

1.4%

Previous: 3.8%-63.2%
Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth

0.9%

Previous: 4.3%-79.1%
Adjusted Operating Income

$14.3M

Previous: $15.7M-9.0%
Adjusted Operating Margin

3.2%

Previous: 3.0%+6.7%
Adjusted EBITDA

$36.6M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

8.1%

No prior period
Adjusted SG&A % of Net Revenue

49.8%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$63.5M

Previous: -$82M+22.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$72M

Previous: -$156M+53.8%
Net Income

-$8.47M

Previous: -$73.8M+88.5%
Operating Income

-$8.82M

Previous: -$74.6M+88.2%
Gross Profit

-$190M

Previous: -$251M+24.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$81.2M

Previous: $266M-69.5%
Total Assets

$2.02B

Previous: $2.27B-10.9%
R&D Expense

$0.00

Previous: $0.00
Stock-Based Comp

$4.53M

Previous: $5.25M-13.7%

Revenue & EPS history

National Vision · Revenue · Quarterly

$452M

Q3 2024-15.2%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National Vision · $532M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Net Product Sales
    $436M+6.1%
  • Services and Plans
    $96.8M+9.4%

Forward guidance

National Vision reaffirms the previously provided outlook for its key operating metrics, while updating its expectations for capital expenditures. The Company is providing the following outlook for the 52 weeks ending December 28, 2024:

Tailwinds

  • New Stores: 65-70
  • Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth: 0.5% - 1.5%
  • Net Revenue (billions): $1.820 - $1.840
  • Adjusted Operating Income (millions): $57 - $62
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.45 - $0.50

Headwinds

  • Macro-economic factors, including inflation
  • Geopolitical instability and risks of recession
  • Constraints on exam capacity
  • Company’s transformation initiatives
  • Termination of the Walmart partnership

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

21 / 39 earnings

Positive

+16.9%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-38.8%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.8%-0.1%+9.9%
Q4 2025+9.1%+0.6%-11.0%
Q3 2025-3.6%-5.7%+14.4%
Q1 2025+16.9%+40.7%+57.8%
Q4 2024+11.6%+10.7%+12.1%
Q3 2024-4.7%-3.1%-8.0%
Q2 2024-21.6%-26.1%-30.7%
Q1 2024-15.2%-16.4%-19.3%
Q4 2023+14.7%+17.9%+11.0%
Q3 2023+9.4%+14.1%+11.5%
Q2 2023-5.9%-8.4%-19.5%
Q1 2023+5.9%+4.7%+14.7%
Q4 2022-38.8%-40.1%-49.6%
Q3 2022+12.7%+12.8%+5.3%
Q2 2022+9.2%+13.7%+12.7%
Q1 2022-31.5%-22.3%-17.8%
Q4 2021-4.7%+0.8%+16.4%
Q3 2021-16.4%-22.3%-23.8%
Q2 2021-0.8%+1.0%+7.8%
Q1 2021+6.5%+6.3%+2.9%
Q3 2020+2.5%+6.4%-2.1%
Q2 2020-1.8%+3.8%+16.1%
Q1 2020+10.0%+2.2%+32.5%
Q4 2019+4.0%+7.4%-41.1%
Q3 2019+11.8%+8.8%+23.8%
Q2 2019+8.2%+7.9%-4.8%
Q1 2019+3.3%+2.3%-1.5%
Q4 2018-1.4%-3.1%-7.7%
Q3 2018-1.7%-7.8%-27.8%
Q2 2017-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q2 2018-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q1 2018+2.3%+6.4%+10.4%
Q1 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q2 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q4 2017-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q3 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q1 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q3 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q4 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%

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