NASDAQ$EYE

National Vision Holdings Inc. · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net revenue increase driven by comparable store sales growth and new store openings, but experienced a net loss due to impairment charges related to the Walmart partnership termination.

National Vision Holdings reported a 6.6% increase in net revenue to $532.4 million for Q3 2023, driven by a 3.8% increase in comparable store sales growth. However, the company experienced a net loss of $73.8 million, or $(0.94) per diluted share, due to $79.4 million in non-cash impairment charges related to the termination of the Walmart partnership. Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.15, consistent with the prior year.

  • Net revenue increased by 6.6% to $532.4 million compared to Q3 2022.
  • Comparable store sales growth was 3.8%, with Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth of 4.3%.
  • Net loss was $73.8 million, or $(0.94) per diluted share, including $79.4 million in non-cash impairment charges.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.15, the same as in Q3 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$532M

Previous: $499M+6.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.15

Previous: $0.15+0.0%
Comparable Store Sales Growth

3.8%

Previous: -8.0%+147.5%
Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth

4.3%

Previous: -8.1%+153.1%
Adjusted Operating Income

$15.7M

No prior period
Adjusted Operating Margin

3.0%

Previous: 4.3%-30.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$82M

Previous: -$86.1M+4.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$156M

Previous: -$74.6M-108.7%
Net Income

-$73.8M

Previous: $11.5M-741.6%
Operating Income

-$74.6M

Previous: $15.4M-585.7%
Gross Profit

-$251M

Previous: -$232M-8.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$266M

Previous: $256M+3.7%
Total Assets

$2.27B

Previous: $2.29B-1.1%
R&D Expense

$0.00

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$5.25M

Previous: $3.17M+65.8%

Revenue & EPS history

National Vision · Revenue · Quarterly

$532M

Q3 2023+6.6%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National Vision · $532M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Net Product Sales
    $436M+6.1%
  • Services and Plans
    $96.8M+9.4%

Forward guidance

National Vision provided an updated outlook for the 52 weeks ending December 30, 2023, reflecting the expected impacts of macroeconomic factors and the Walmart partnership termination.

Tailwinds

  • New Stores: 65 to 70
  • Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth: ~2%
  • Net Revenue: $2.115 billion to $2.125 billion
  • Adjusted Operating Income: $60 million to $65 million
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.53 to $0.58

Headwinds

  • The ultimate impact of macroeconomic factors, including inflation, geopolitical instability, and risks of recession, remains uncertain.
  • The outlook assumes no material deterioration to the Company’s current business operations as a result of such factors or as a result of the termination of the Walmart partnership.
  • Fiscal 2023 outlook is forward-looking and subject to significant business, economic, regulatory and competitive uncertainties and contingencies.
  • The Company is not able to reconcile these forward-looking non-GAAP measures to GAAP without unreasonable efforts because it is not possible to predict with a reasonable degree of certainty the actual impact of certain items and unanticipated events, including taxes and non-recurring items, which would be included in GAAP results.
  • Actual results may vary and those variations may be material, so the Company’s results may not fall within the ranges contained in its fiscal 2023 outlook.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

21 / 39 earnings

Positive

+16.9%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-38.8%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.8%-0.1%
Q4 2025+9.1%+0.6%-11.0%
Q3 2025-3.6%-5.7%+14.4%
Q1 2025+16.9%+40.7%+57.8%
Q4 2024+11.6%+10.7%+12.1%
Q3 2024-4.7%-3.1%-8.0%
Q2 2024-21.6%-26.1%-30.7%
Q1 2024-15.2%-16.4%-19.3%
Q4 2023+14.7%+17.9%+11.0%
Q3 2023+9.4%+14.1%+11.5%
Q2 2023-5.9%-8.4%-19.5%
Q1 2023+5.9%+4.7%+14.7%
Q4 2022-38.8%-40.1%-49.6%
Q3 2022+12.7%+12.8%+5.3%
Q2 2022+9.2%+13.7%+12.7%
Q1 2022-31.5%-22.3%-17.8%
Q4 2021-4.7%+0.8%+16.4%
Q3 2021-16.4%-22.3%-23.8%
Q2 2021-0.8%+1.0%+7.8%
Q1 2021+6.5%+6.3%+2.9%
Q3 2020+2.5%+6.4%-2.1%
Q2 2020-1.8%+3.8%+16.1%
Q1 2020+10.0%+2.2%+32.5%
Q4 2019+4.0%+7.4%-41.1%
Q3 2019+11.8%+8.8%+23.8%
Q2 2019+8.2%+7.9%-4.8%
Q1 2019+3.3%+2.3%-1.5%
Q4 2018-1.4%-3.1%-7.7%
Q3 2018-1.7%-7.8%-27.8%
Q2 2017-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q2 2018-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q1 2018+2.3%+6.4%+10.4%
Q1 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q2 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q4 2017-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q3 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q1 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q3 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q4 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%

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