NASDAQ$EYE

National Vision Holdings Inc. · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a decrease in net revenue and net income due to a challenging consumer environment.

National Vision Holdings, Inc. reported a 3.6% decrease in net revenue to $499.2 million and a 71.9% decrease in net income to $11.5 million for the third quarter of 2022. The company opened 18 new stores and expanded its remote medicine rollout to approximately 300 stores. The company reaffirms the previously provided outlook for its key operating metrics, while updating its expectations for depreciation and amortization and interest.

  • Net revenue decreased by 3.6% to $499.2 million.
  • Comparable store sales growth was (8.0)%, with Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth of (8.1)%.
  • Net income decreased by 71.9% to $11.5 million, and diluted EPS decreased by 67.7% to $0.15.
  • Adjusted Operating Income decreased by 60.8% to $21.5 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$499M

Previous: $518M-3.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.15

Previous: $0.38-60.5%
Comparable Store Sales Growth

-8.0%

Previous: 15.7%-151.0%
Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth

-8.1%

Previous: 13.3%-160.9%
Adjusted Operating Margin

4.3%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$86.1M

Previous: -$58.9M-46.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$74.6M

Previous: -$17.9M-316.2%
Net Income

$11.5M

Previous: $41M-71.9%
Operating Income

$15.4M

Previous: $50.7M-69.7%
Gross Profit

-$232M

Previous: -$226M-2.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$256M

Previous: $439M-41.7%
Total Assets

$2.29B

Previous: $2.41B-4.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.17M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

National Vision · Revenue · Quarterly

$499M

Q3 2022-3.6%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National Vision · $499M total across 2 segments · Q3 2022

  • Net Product Sales
    $411M-3.5%
  • Services and Plans
    $88.5M-4.2%

Forward guidance

The Company reaffirms the previously provided outlook for its key operating metrics, while updating its expectations for depreciation and amortization and interest. The Company is providing the following outlook for the 52 weeks ending December 31, 2022:

Tailwinds

  • New Stores: At least 80
  • Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth: (8%) - (6.5%)
  • Net Revenue: $1.99 - $2.02 billion
  • Adjusted Operating Income: $85 - $100 million
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.65 - $0.77

Headwinds

  • The ultimate impact of macro-economic factors on the Company’s financial outlook remains uncertain with dynamic market conditions
  • Constraints on exam capacity
  • The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
  • Risks of recession
  • Geopolitical instability

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

21 / 39 earnings

Positive

+16.9%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-38.8%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.8%-0.1%
Q4 2025+9.1%+0.6%-11.0%
Q3 2025-3.6%-5.7%+14.4%
Q1 2025+16.9%+40.7%+57.8%
Q4 2024+11.6%+10.7%+12.1%
Q3 2024-4.7%-3.1%-8.0%
Q2 2024-21.6%-26.1%-30.7%
Q1 2024-15.2%-16.4%-19.3%
Q4 2023+14.7%+17.9%+11.0%
Q3 2023+9.4%+14.1%+11.5%
Q2 2023-5.9%-8.4%-19.5%
Q1 2023+5.9%+4.7%+14.7%
Q4 2022-38.8%-40.1%-49.6%
Q3 2022+12.7%+12.8%+5.3%
Q2 2022+9.2%+13.7%+12.7%
Q1 2022-31.5%-22.3%-17.8%
Q4 2021-4.7%+0.8%+16.4%
Q3 2021-16.4%-22.3%-23.8%
Q2 2021-0.8%+1.0%+7.8%
Q1 2021+6.5%+6.3%+2.9%
Q3 2020+2.5%+6.4%-2.1%
Q2 2020-1.8%+3.8%+16.1%
Q1 2020+10.0%+2.2%+32.5%
Q4 2019+4.0%+7.4%-41.1%
Q3 2019+11.8%+8.8%+23.8%
Q2 2019+8.2%+7.9%-4.8%
Q1 2019+3.3%+2.3%-1.5%
Q4 2018-1.4%-3.1%-7.7%
Q3 2018-1.7%-7.8%-27.8%
Q2 2017-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q2 2018-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q1 2018+2.3%+6.4%+10.4%
Q1 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q2 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q4 2017-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q3 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q1 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q3 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q4 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%

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