NASDAQ$EYE

National Vision Holdings Inc. · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported first quarter financial results, showing revenue increase and raised fiscal year outlook.

National Vision Holdings reported a strong first quarter with a 13.7% increase in net revenue to $534.2 million and a 346% increase in net income to $43.4 million. The company also raised its fiscal year 2021 outlook, anticipating continued growth.

  • Net revenue increased by 13.7% to $534.2 million.
  • Comparable store sales growth was 18.2%, with adjusted comparable store sales growth at 35.8%.
  • Net income increased by 346% to $43.4 million, with diluted EPS increasing by 302% to $0.48.
  • The company opened 25 new stores, bringing the total to 1,230 stores.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$534M

Previous: $470M+13.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.48

Previous: $0.28+71.4%
Comparable Store Sales Growth

18.2%

No prior period
Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth

35.8%

No prior period
Adjusted Operating Income

$67.7M

No prior period
Adjusted Operating Margin

12.7%

Previous: 8.1%+56.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$16.4M

Previous: -$13.1M-25.5%
Free Cash Flow

$27.1M

Previous: -$3.31M+917.0%
Net Income

$43.4M

Previous: $9.74M+345.8%
Operating Income

$61.4M

Previous: $16.9M+263.3%
Gross Profit

-$224M

Previous: -$218M-2.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$454M

Previous: $263M+72.4%
Total Assets

$2.42B

Previous: $2.22B+9.1%

Revenue & EPS history

National Vision · Revenue · Quarterly

$534M

Q1 2021+13.7%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

National Vision · $534M total across 2 segments · Q1 2021

  • Net Product Sales
    $443M+12.8%
  • Services and Plans
    $91.1M+18.5%

Forward guidance

National Vision provided an updated fiscal 2021 outlook, anticipating net revenue between $1.975 billion and $2.025 billion, and adjusted diluted EPS between $1.07 and $1.12.

Tailwinds

  • New Stores ~75
  • Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth 16% - 19%
  • Net Revenue $1.975 - $2.025 billion
  • Adjusted Operating Income $155 - $162 million
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS $1.07 - $1.12

Headwinds

  • The ultimate impacts of COVID-19 on the Company’s financial outlook remain uncertain.
  • The outlook shown below assumes no material deterioration to the Company’s current business operations as a result of COVID-19, governmental actions and regulations.
  • Given the uncertainties, dynamic nature, resurgence, and unknown duration of the pandemic, the Company is continuing to evaluate additional measures that may be taken to respond to the impact of COVID-19 on its business.
  • The fiscal 2021 outlook is forward-looking, subject to significant business, economic, regulatory and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of the Company and its management, and based upon assumptions with respect to future decisions, which are subject to change.
  • Actual results may vary and those variations may be material.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

54%

21 / 39 earnings

Positive

+16.9%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-38.8%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+4.8%-0.1%+9.9%
Q4 2025+9.1%+0.6%-11.0%
Q3 2025-3.6%-5.7%+14.4%
Q1 2025+16.9%+40.7%+57.8%
Q4 2024+11.6%+10.7%+12.1%
Q3 2024-4.7%-3.1%-8.0%
Q2 2024-21.6%-26.1%-30.7%
Q1 2024-15.2%-16.4%-19.3%
Q4 2023+14.7%+17.9%+11.0%
Q3 2023+9.4%+14.1%+11.5%
Q2 2023-5.9%-8.4%-19.5%
Q1 2023+5.9%+4.7%+14.7%
Q4 2022-38.8%-40.1%-49.6%
Q3 2022+12.7%+12.8%+5.3%
Q2 2022+9.2%+13.7%+12.7%
Q1 2022-31.5%-22.3%-17.8%
Q4 2021-4.7%+0.8%+16.4%
Q3 2021-16.4%-22.3%-23.8%
Q2 2021-0.8%+1.0%+7.8%
Q1 2021+6.5%+6.3%+2.9%
Q3 2020+2.5%+6.4%-2.1%
Q2 2020-1.8%+3.8%+16.1%
Q1 2020+10.0%+2.2%+32.5%
Q4 2019+4.0%+7.4%-41.1%
Q3 2019+11.8%+8.8%+23.8%
Q2 2019+8.2%+7.9%-4.8%
Q1 2019+3.3%+2.3%-1.5%
Q4 2018-1.4%-3.1%-7.7%
Q3 2018-1.7%-7.8%-27.8%
Q2 2017-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q2 2018-8.4%-7.5%+2.6%
Q1 2018+2.3%+6.4%+10.4%
Q1 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q2 2016-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q4 2017-2.2%-3.1%-6.9%
Q3 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q1 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q3 2017+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%
Q4 2016+1.8%+7.9%+19.4%

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