NYSE$PKG

Packaging Corp of America · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

PCA's Q4 2022 financial performance reflected lower packaging demand offset by cost management and paper segment price increases, with earnings per share at $2.31.

Packaging Corporation of America reported a net income of $212 million, or $2.31 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2022. Net sales for the quarter were $1.98 billion. The company's performance was influenced by lower packaging demand, which was offset by effective cost management and price increases in the paper segment.

  • Q4 2022 net income was $212 million, or $2.31 per share.
  • Net sales for Q4 2022 reached $1.98 billion.
  • Packaging segment experienced lower demand, but was offset by cost management.
  • Paper segment benefited from price increases announced in the third quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.98B

Previous: $2.04B-3.2%
EPS (adj)

$2.35

Previous: $2.76-14.9%
Containerboard Production

961.0K

Previous: 1.2M-22.7%
Capital Expenditures

$247M

Previous: $239M+3.4%
Free Cash Flow

$173M

Previous: $152M+14.0%
Net Income

$212M

Previous: $217M-2.2%
Operating Income

$288M

Previous: $356M-19.0%
Gross Profit

$450M

Previous: $510M-11.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$470M

Previous: $765M-38.5%
Total Assets

$470M

Previous: $7.84B-94.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$6.9M

Previous: $8.6M-19.8%

Revenue & EPS history

PCA · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.98B

Q4 2022-3.2%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

PCA · $1.96B total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Packaging
    $1.81B-3.8%
  • Paper
    $154M+7.7%

Forward guidance

PCA anticipates first quarter earnings of $2.23 per share, considering factors such as box demand, pricing adjustments, labor costs, chemical prices, and benefits from share repurchases.

Tailwinds

  • Box demand expected to be similar to fourth quarter levels.
  • Higher total volume with corrugated plants having four additional shipping days.
  • Paper prices should move slightly higher with sales volume fairly flat.
  • Expect lower wood and recycled fiber prices.
  • Expect lower energy prices and lower scheduled maintenance outage expenses.

Headwinds

  • Prices will move lower as a result of the recent decreases in the published domestic containerboard prices, and we are assuming lower export prices as well.
  • Labor costs and certain indirect costs will increase as some containerboard mill operations were temporarily idled during the fourth quarter.
  • Anticipate higher labor and benefits costs and other timing-related expenses that occur at the beginning of a new year.
  • Expect higher prices for many chemicals, particularly starch and caustic soda.
  • Expect higher interest and non-operating pension expenses and a higher tax rate.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

31 / 69 earnings

Positive

+14.3%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-13.8%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.8%+8.5%+5.1%
Q4 2025-2.5%+0.0%+3.8%
Q3 2025+2.3%-1.2%-5.5%
Q2 2025-1.6%+0.8%+9.5%
Q1 2025-0.9%-0.0%+2.3%
Q4 2024-9.8%-11.4%-10.6%
Q3 2024+4.4%+3.1%+12.0%
Q2 2024-0.1%+2.9%+4.3%
Q1 2024-5.0%-3.9%+0.8%
Q4 2023+3.1%+1.9%+5.4%
Q3 2023+3.1%+3.9%+6.7%
Q2 2023+11.1%+11.3%+5.9%
Q1 2023-6.2%-5.6%-11.0%
Q4 2022+6.6%+6.7%+6.0%
Q3 2022-0.9%+3.2%+14.0%
Q2 2022-3.3%-0.7%-1.2%
Q1 2022-1.1%-0.0%-4.9%
Q4 2021+6.3%+11.6%+10.8%
Q3 2021+1.5%+2.5%-1.4%
Q2 2021+3.3%+5.9%+12.2%
Q1 2021+1.7%+3.7%+4.5%
Q4 2020-5.8%-3.7%-5.6%
Q3 2020-4.4%-4.0%+10.5%
Q2 2020-1.5%-7.2%-1.4%
Q1 2020+14.3%+10.2%+19.2%
Q4 2019-4.6%-6.9%-13.2%
Q3 2019-0.1%+3.6%+2.1%
Q2 2019+0.7%+0.8%-3.1%
Q1 2019-0.6%+0.4%-7.6%
Q4 2018-0.5%+1.9%+2.3%
Q3 2018+2.3%+2.7%+9.9%
Q2 2018-4.6%-4.5%-4.9%
Q1 2018+0.5%-0.9%+3.9%
Q4 2017-0.3%-2.3%-5.9%
Q3 2017-0.0%-2.6%-6.0%
Q2 2017+1.8%+0.8%+1.6%
Q1 2017+6.2%+4.5%+8.3%
Q4 2016-1.5%+0.7%+0.2%
Q3 2016-3.2%-1.3%+4.5%
Q2 2016+0.9%+1.2%+6.3%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-13.8%
Q3 2015-6.9%
Q2 2015+7.2%
Q1 2015-10.1%
Q4 2014-4.7%
Q3 2014+10.9%
Q2 2014-3.0%
Q1 2014-1.1%
Q4 2013+10.0%
Q3 2013+0.5%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+5.2%
Q4 2012-1.8%
Q3 2012+3.0%
Q2 2012+3.7%
Q1 2012+1.6%
Q4 2011-1.8%
Q3 2011+2.0%
Q2 2011-9.7%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q1 2011+1.1%
Q4 2008-3.8%
Q4 2010-3.8%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q3 2010+2.5%
Q2 2009+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q4 2009+0.0%

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