NYSE$PKG

Packaging Corp of America · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported third quarter results with net sales of $1.69 billion and diluted EPS of $1.46.

Packaging Corporation of America reported third quarter net income of $139 million, or $1.46 per share. Third quarter net sales were $1.69 billion in 2020, compared to $1.75 billion in 2019.

  • Set new all-time quarterly records for total box shipments and shipments per day in the Packaging segment.
  • Containerboard production was 1,048,000 tons.
  • Containerboard inventory was down 58,000 tons from the third quarter of 2019.
  • Paper segment sales volume was down 55,000 tons compared to the third quarter of 2019.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.69B

Previous: $1.75B-3.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.57

Previous: $1.92-18.2%
Containerboard Production

1.0M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$254M

Previous: -$264M+3.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$114M

Previous: -$84M-36.2%
Net Income

$139M

Previous: $180M-22.6%
Operating Income

$210M

Previous: $263M-20.3%
Gross Profit

$345M

Previous: $411M-16.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$949M

Previous: $738M+28.6%
Total Assets

$7.37B

Previous: $7.19B+2.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$6M

Previous: $5.9M+1.7%

Revenue & EPS history

PCA · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.69B

Q3 2020-3.3%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

PCA · $1.68B total across 2 segments · Q3 2020

  • Packaging
    $1.5B
  • Paper
    $178M

Forward guidance

Looking ahead as we move from the third and into the fourth quarter, in our Packaging segment we expect corrugated products demand to remain strong. Although shipments will be lower than the third quarter with three less shipping days, volume should be higher than last year’s record fourth quarter shipments.

Tailwinds

  • Corrugated products demand to remain strong in the Packaging segment.
  • Volume should be higher than last year’s record fourth quarter shipments.
  • Higher containerboard production will help build some inventory prior to year-end
  • Price increases communicated to containerboard and box customers will be implemented during the quarter and into next year.
  • Average export prices to move higher during the fourth quarter.

Headwinds

  • Shipments will be lower than the third quarter with three less shipping days
  • Seasonally less rich mix in corrugated products compared to the third quarter.
  • Paper segment sales volume in the fourth quarter will be lower than the seasonally stronger third quarter
  • Freight and scheduled maintenance outage costs to be higher
  • Anticipated colder weather, energy costs should be higher as well.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

31 / 69 earnings

Positive

+14.3%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-13.8%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.8%+8.5%+5.1%
Q4 2025-2.5%+0.0%+3.8%
Q3 2025+2.3%-1.2%-5.5%
Q2 2025-1.6%+0.8%+9.5%
Q1 2025-0.9%-0.0%+2.3%
Q4 2024-9.8%-11.4%-10.6%
Q3 2024+4.4%+3.1%+12.0%
Q2 2024-0.1%+2.9%+4.3%
Q1 2024-5.0%-3.9%+0.8%
Q4 2023+3.1%+1.9%+5.4%
Q3 2023+3.1%+3.9%+6.7%
Q2 2023+11.1%+11.3%+5.9%
Q1 2023-6.2%-5.6%-11.0%
Q4 2022+6.6%+6.7%+6.0%
Q3 2022-0.9%+3.2%+14.0%
Q2 2022-3.3%-0.7%-1.2%
Q1 2022-1.1%-0.0%-4.9%
Q4 2021+6.3%+11.6%+10.8%
Q3 2021+1.5%+2.5%-1.4%
Q2 2021+3.3%+5.9%+12.2%
Q1 2021+1.7%+3.7%+4.5%
Q4 2020-5.8%-3.7%-5.6%
Q3 2020-4.4%-4.0%+10.5%
Q2 2020-1.5%-7.2%-1.4%
Q1 2020+14.3%+10.2%+19.2%
Q4 2019-4.6%-6.9%-13.2%
Q3 2019-0.1%+3.6%+2.1%
Q2 2019+0.7%+0.8%-3.1%
Q1 2019-0.6%+0.4%-7.6%
Q4 2018-0.5%+1.9%+2.3%
Q3 2018+2.3%+2.7%+9.9%
Q2 2018-4.6%-4.5%-4.9%
Q1 2018+0.5%-0.9%+3.9%
Q4 2017-0.3%-2.3%-5.9%
Q3 2017-0.0%-2.6%-6.0%
Q2 2017+1.8%+0.8%+1.6%
Q1 2017+6.2%+4.5%+8.3%
Q4 2016-1.5%+0.7%+0.2%
Q3 2016-3.2%-1.3%+4.5%
Q2 2016+0.9%+1.2%+6.3%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-13.8%
Q3 2015-6.9%
Q2 2015+7.2%
Q1 2015-10.1%
Q4 2014-4.7%
Q3 2014+10.9%
Q2 2014-3.0%
Q1 2014-1.1%
Q4 2013+10.0%
Q3 2013+0.5%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+5.2%
Q4 2012-1.8%
Q3 2012+3.0%
Q2 2012+3.7%
Q1 2012+1.6%
Q4 2011-1.8%
Q3 2011+2.0%
Q2 2011-9.7%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q1 2011+1.1%
Q4 2008-3.8%
Q4 2010-3.8%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q3 2010+2.5%
Q2 2009+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q4 2009+0.0%

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