NYSE$PKG

Packaging Corp of America · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Net income and EPS decreased due to lower price and mix, and volume in the Packaging segment, higher depreciation expense, and lower volume in the Paper segment, but was partially offset by lower operating costs.

Packaging Corporation of America reported third quarter 2023 net income of $183 million, or $2.03 per share. Third quarter net sales were $1.9 billion.

  • Net income was $183 million, or $2.03 per share.
  • Net income excluding special items was $185 million, or $2.05 per share.
  • Net sales were $1.9 billion.
  • Corrugated products shipments per day were up 1.9%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.94B

Previous: $2.13B-8.9%
EPS (adj)

$2.05

Previous: $2.83-27.6%
Containerboard Production

1.1M

Previous: 1.1M+0.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$329M

Previous: -$577M+43.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$145M

Previous: -$315M+53.8%
Net Income

$183M

Previous: $263M-30.2%
Operating Income

$259M

Previous: $360M-28.2%
Gross Profit

$413M

Previous: $518M-20.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$573M

Previous: $649M-11.6%
Total Assets

$8.18B

Previous: $8.34B-2.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$7.7M

Previous: $7.1M+8.5%

Revenue & EPS history

PCA · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.94B

Q3 2023-8.9%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

PCA · $1.92B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Packaging
    $1.76B-9.3%
  • Paper
    $158M-4.5%

Forward guidance

Fourth quarter earnings are expected to be $1.76 per share.

Tailwinds

  • Less market-related downtime as inventories build back to appropriate levels.
  • Higher shipments per day in corrugated products facilities.
  • Lower scheduled maintenance outage expenses.

Headwinds

  • One less shipping day compared to the third quarter.
  • Lower average prices due to the majority of the May decrease in the published benchmark index grades being realized throughout the third quarter as well as a seasonally less rich mix.
  • Lower Paper segment volume compared to the seasonally stronger third quarter.
  • Prices and mix are assumed to trend lower with declines in the index prices in the Paper segment.
  • Operating and converting costs will increase driven by higher recycled fiber prices, seasonal energy costs, and the re-start of the Wallula mill.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

31 / 69 earnings

Positive

+14.3%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-13.8%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.8%+8.5%+5.1%
Q4 2025-2.5%+0.0%+3.8%
Q3 2025+2.3%-1.2%-5.5%
Q2 2025-1.6%+0.8%+9.5%
Q1 2025-0.9%-0.0%+2.3%
Q4 2024-9.8%-11.4%-10.6%
Q3 2024+4.4%+3.1%+12.0%
Q2 2024-0.1%+2.9%+4.3%
Q1 2024-5.0%-3.9%+0.8%
Q4 2023+3.1%+1.9%+5.4%
Q3 2023+3.1%+3.9%+6.7%
Q2 2023+11.1%+11.3%+5.9%
Q1 2023-6.2%-5.6%-11.0%
Q4 2022+6.6%+6.7%+6.0%
Q3 2022-0.9%+3.2%+14.0%
Q2 2022-3.3%-0.7%-1.2%
Q1 2022-1.1%-0.0%-4.9%
Q4 2021+6.3%+11.6%+10.8%
Q3 2021+1.5%+2.5%-1.4%
Q2 2021+3.3%+5.9%+12.2%
Q1 2021+1.7%+3.7%+4.5%
Q4 2020-5.8%-3.7%-5.6%
Q3 2020-4.4%-4.0%+10.5%
Q2 2020-1.5%-7.2%-1.4%
Q1 2020+14.3%+10.2%+19.2%
Q4 2019-4.6%-6.9%-13.2%
Q3 2019-0.1%+3.6%+2.1%
Q2 2019+0.7%+0.8%-3.1%
Q1 2019-0.6%+0.4%-7.6%
Q4 2018-0.5%+1.9%+2.3%
Q3 2018+2.3%+2.7%+9.9%
Q2 2018-4.6%-4.5%-4.9%
Q1 2018+0.5%-0.9%+3.9%
Q4 2017-0.3%-2.3%-5.9%
Q3 2017-0.0%-2.6%-6.0%
Q2 2017+1.8%+0.8%+1.6%
Q1 2017+6.2%+4.5%+8.3%
Q4 2016-1.5%+0.7%+0.2%
Q3 2016-3.2%-1.3%+4.5%
Q2 2016+0.9%+1.2%+6.3%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-13.8%
Q3 2015-6.9%
Q2 2015+7.2%
Q1 2015-10.1%
Q4 2014-4.7%
Q3 2014+10.9%
Q2 2014-3.0%
Q1 2014-1.1%
Q4 2013+10.0%
Q3 2013+0.5%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+5.2%
Q4 2012-1.8%
Q3 2012+3.0%
Q2 2012+3.7%
Q1 2012+1.6%
Q4 2011-1.8%
Q3 2011+2.0%
Q2 2011-9.7%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q1 2011+1.1%
Q4 2008-3.8%
Q4 2010-3.8%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q3 2010+2.5%
Q2 2009+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q4 2009+0.0%

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