NYSE$PKG

Packaging Corp of America · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Net income and sales increased, driven by higher prices and mix in the Packaging and Paper segments, and offset by higher operating costs and lower volume in the Packaging and Paper segments.

Packaging Corporation of America reported third quarter 2022 net income of $262 million, or $2.80 per share, and net sales of $2.1 billion. Excluding special items, net income was $266 million, or $2.83 per share.

  • Net income was $262 million, or $2.80 per share.
  • Net income, excluding special items, was $266 million, or $2.83 per share.
  • Net sales were $2.1 billion.
  • Total corrugated products shipments and shipments per day were down (6.0%) over last year’s third quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.13B

Previous: $2B+6.3%
EPS (adj)

$2.83

Previous: $2.69+5.2%
Containerboard Production

1.1M

Previous: 1.3M-11.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$577M

Previous: -$366M-57.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$315M

Previous: -$116M-172.4%
Net Income

$263M

Previous: $251M+4.7%
Operating Income

$360M

Previous: $353M+2.1%
Gross Profit

$518M

Previous: $511M+1.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$649M

Previous: $1.7B-61.9%
Total Assets

$8.34B

Previous: $8.63B-3.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$7.1M

Previous: $6.8M+4.4%

Revenue & EPS history

PCA · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.13B

Q3 2022+6.3%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

PCA · $2.11B total across 2 segments · Q3 2022

  • Packaging
    $1.94B+6.1%
  • Paper
    $165M+10.0%

Forward guidance

The company expects fourth quarter earnings of $2.22 per share.

Tailwinds

  • Implementation of price increase in the Paper segment will continue.
  • Price increases in the Packaging segment continued to generate excellent results
  • Mills and plants remained focused on lowering operating costs through process efficiency optimization efforts and material usage initiatives.
  • Containerboard system run in a very cost-effective manner to match supply with demand
  • Scheduled outages in mills were executed very well.

Headwinds

  • Most of the issues that impacted third quarter Packaging segment demand continuing
  • Box plants will have four less shipping days in the fourth quarter
  • Expect a seasonally less rich mix in corrugated products
  • Expect lower average export containerboard prices
  • Scheduled outage expenses will be higher, and we expect slightly higher operating costs, primarily labor and benefit expenses, along with anticipated colder weather resulting in higher energy costs.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

31 / 69 earnings

Positive

+14.3%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-13.8%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.8%+8.5%+5.1%
Q4 2025-2.5%+0.0%+3.8%
Q3 2025+2.3%-1.2%-5.5%
Q2 2025-1.6%+0.8%+9.5%
Q1 2025-0.9%-0.0%+2.3%
Q4 2024-9.8%-11.4%-10.6%
Q3 2024+4.4%+3.1%+12.0%
Q2 2024-0.1%+2.9%+4.3%
Q1 2024-5.0%-3.9%+0.8%
Q4 2023+3.1%+1.9%+5.4%
Q3 2023+3.1%+3.9%+6.7%
Q2 2023+11.1%+11.3%+5.9%
Q1 2023-6.2%-5.6%-11.0%
Q4 2022+6.6%+6.7%+6.0%
Q3 2022-0.9%+3.2%+14.0%
Q2 2022-3.3%-0.7%-1.2%
Q1 2022-1.1%-0.0%-4.9%
Q4 2021+6.3%+11.6%+10.8%
Q3 2021+1.5%+2.5%-1.4%
Q2 2021+3.3%+5.9%+12.2%
Q1 2021+1.7%+3.7%+4.5%
Q4 2020-5.8%-3.7%-5.6%
Q3 2020-4.4%-4.0%+10.5%
Q2 2020-1.5%-7.2%-1.4%
Q1 2020+14.3%+10.2%+19.2%
Q4 2019-4.6%-6.9%-13.2%
Q3 2019-0.1%+3.6%+2.1%
Q2 2019+0.7%+0.8%-3.1%
Q1 2019-0.6%+0.4%-7.6%
Q4 2018-0.5%+1.9%+2.3%
Q3 2018+2.3%+2.7%+9.9%
Q2 2018-4.6%-4.5%-4.9%
Q1 2018+0.5%-0.9%+3.9%
Q4 2017-0.3%-2.3%-5.9%
Q3 2017-0.0%-2.6%-6.0%
Q2 2017+1.8%+0.8%+1.6%
Q1 2017+6.2%+4.5%+8.3%
Q4 2016-1.5%+0.7%+0.2%
Q3 2016-3.2%-1.3%+4.5%
Q2 2016+0.9%+1.2%+6.3%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-13.8%
Q3 2015-6.9%
Q2 2015+7.2%
Q1 2015-10.1%
Q4 2014-4.7%
Q3 2014+10.9%
Q2 2014-3.0%
Q1 2014-1.1%
Q4 2013+10.0%
Q3 2013+0.5%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+5.2%
Q4 2012-1.8%
Q3 2012+3.0%
Q2 2012+3.7%
Q1 2012+1.6%
Q4 2011-1.8%
Q3 2011+2.0%
Q2 2011-9.7%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q1 2011+1.1%
Q4 2008-3.8%
Q4 2010-3.8%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q3 2010+2.5%
Q2 2009+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q4 2009+0.0%

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