NYSE$PKG

Packaging Corp of America · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported first quarter results with net income of $190 million and net sales of $2.0 billion.

Packaging Corporation of America reported first quarter 2023 results with net income of $190 million, or $2.11 per share, and net sales of $2.0 billion. Excluding special items, net income was $198 million, or $2.20 per share. Packaging segment demand was below expectations due to consumer spending impacted by higher interest rates and inflation.

  • Net income for the first quarter of 2023 was $190 million, or $2.11 per share.
  • Net sales for the first quarter of 2023 were $2.0 billion, compared to $2.1 billion in 2022.
  • Excluding special items, net income was $198 million, or $2.20 per share.
  • Packaging segment demand was below expectations due to consumer spending impacted by higher interest rates and inflation.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.98B

Previous: $2.14B-7.5%
EPS (adj)

$2.20

Previous: $2.72-19.1%
Containerboard Production

1.1M

Previous: 1.2M-11.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$112M

Previous: -$213M+47.3%
Free Cash Flow

$77.7M

Previous: $41M+89.5%
Net Income

$190M

Previous: $254M-25.2%
Operating Income

$271M

Previous: $357M-24.1%
Gross Profit

$431M

Previous: $533M-19.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$368M

Previous: $629M-41.5%
Total Assets

$8.05B

Previous: $8.14B-1.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$15.3M

Previous: $12.3M+24.4%

Revenue & EPS history

PCA · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.98B

Q1 2023-7.5%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

PCA · $1.96B total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Packaging
    $1.81B-7.9%
  • Paper
    $151M-1.7%

Forward guidance

The company expects second quarter earnings of $1.96 per share.

Tailwinds

  • Improved volume is expected in the Packaging segment.
  • Most operating costs are expected to trend lower.

Headwinds

  • There is one less shipping day for the corrugated business.
  • Prices will be lower as a result of previously published domestic containerboard price decreases along with lower export prices.
  • Sales volume as well as prices and mix in the Paper segment are assumed to be slightly lower based on lower demand.
  • Converting costs, scheduled maintenance outage expense and depreciation expense will be higher.
  • Higher freight and logistics expenses are expected compared to the first quarter due to recent increases in contract rail rates.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

31 / 69 earnings

Positive

+14.3%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-13.8%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.8%+8.5%+5.1%
Q4 2025-2.5%+0.0%+3.8%
Q3 2025+2.3%-1.2%-5.5%
Q2 2025-1.6%+0.8%+9.5%
Q1 2025-0.9%-0.0%+2.3%
Q4 2024-9.8%-11.4%-10.6%
Q3 2024+4.4%+3.1%+12.0%
Q2 2024-0.1%+2.9%+4.3%
Q1 2024-5.0%-3.9%+0.8%
Q4 2023+3.1%+1.9%+5.4%
Q3 2023+3.1%+3.9%+6.7%
Q2 2023+11.1%+11.3%+5.9%
Q1 2023-6.2%-5.6%-11.0%
Q4 2022+6.6%+6.7%+6.0%
Q3 2022-0.9%+3.2%+14.0%
Q2 2022-3.3%-0.7%-1.2%
Q1 2022-1.1%-0.0%-4.9%
Q4 2021+6.3%+11.6%+10.8%
Q3 2021+1.5%+2.5%-1.4%
Q2 2021+3.3%+5.9%+12.2%
Q1 2021+1.7%+3.7%+4.5%
Q4 2020-5.8%-3.7%-5.6%
Q3 2020-4.4%-4.0%+10.5%
Q2 2020-1.5%-7.2%-1.4%
Q1 2020+14.3%+10.2%+19.2%
Q4 2019-4.6%-6.9%-13.2%
Q3 2019-0.1%+3.6%+2.1%
Q2 2019+0.7%+0.8%-3.1%
Q1 2019-0.6%+0.4%-7.6%
Q4 2018-0.5%+1.9%+2.3%
Q3 2018+2.3%+2.7%+9.9%
Q2 2018-4.6%-4.5%-4.9%
Q1 2018+0.5%-0.9%+3.9%
Q4 2017-0.3%-2.3%-5.9%
Q3 2017-0.0%-2.6%-6.0%
Q2 2017+1.8%+0.8%+1.6%
Q1 2017+6.2%+4.5%+8.3%
Q4 2016-1.5%+0.7%+0.2%
Q3 2016-3.2%-1.3%+4.5%
Q2 2016+0.9%+1.2%+6.3%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-13.8%
Q3 2015-6.9%
Q2 2015+7.2%
Q1 2015-10.1%
Q4 2014-4.7%
Q3 2014+10.9%
Q2 2014-3.0%
Q1 2014-1.1%
Q4 2013+10.0%
Q3 2013+0.5%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+5.2%
Q4 2012-1.8%
Q3 2012+3.0%
Q2 2012+3.7%
Q1 2012+1.6%
Q4 2011-1.8%
Q3 2011+2.0%
Q2 2011-9.7%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q1 2011+1.1%
Q4 2008-3.8%
Q4 2010-3.8%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q3 2010+2.5%
Q2 2009+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q4 2009+0.0%

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