NYSE$PKG

Packaging Corp of America · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported third quarter earnings with strong packaging segment demand and implemented price increases.

Packaging Corporation of America reported strong third quarter results, driven by robust demand in the packaging segment and successful implementation of price increases. The containerboard mills achieved an all-time quarterly sales volume record, and the box plants set new third quarter records for total corrugated products shipments and shipments per day.

  • Net income was $251 million, or $2.63 per share.
  • Net income excluding special items was $257 million, or $2.69 per share.
  • Net sales reached $2.0 billion compared to $1.7 billion in the previous year.
  • Packaging segment demand remained strong.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2B

Previous: $1.69B+18.1%
EPS (adj)

$2.69

Previous: $1.57+71.3%
Containerboard Production

1.3M

Previous: 1.0M+19.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$366M

Previous: -$254M-44.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$116M

Previous: -$114M-1.0%
Net Income

$251M

Previous: $139M+80.2%
Operating Income

$353M

Previous: $210M+68.4%
Gross Profit

$511M

Previous: $345M+47.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.7B

Previous: $949M+79.4%
Total Assets

$8.63B

Previous: $7.37B+17.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$6.8M

Previous: $6M+13.3%

Revenue & EPS history

PCA · Revenue · Quarterly

$2B

Q3 2021+18.1%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

PCA · $1.98B total across 2 segments · Q3 2021

  • Packaging
    $1.83B+21.9%
  • Paper
    $150M-15.6%

Forward guidance

The company expects fourth quarter earnings of $2.04 per share.

Tailwinds

  • Continue to implement previously announced price increases for domestic containerboard, corrugated packaging, and paper.
  • Average export containerboard prices to move higher.

Headwinds

  • Packaging segment volume will be lower due to three less shipping days as well as the scheduled outage at the DeRidder Mill.
  • Paper segment volume will be lower as the Jackson Mill is not expected to produce any paper grades.
  • Energy costs will increase due to higher gas prices and anticipated colder weather.
  • Wood costs, especially in our southern mills, will be higher due to the previous wet weather, low inventory and high demand.
  • Inflation to continue with most of our other operating and converting costs, along with higher freight and logistics expenses.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

31 / 69 earnings

Positive

+14.3%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-13.8%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.8%+8.5%+5.1%
Q4 2025-2.5%+0.0%+3.8%
Q3 2025+2.3%-1.2%-5.5%
Q2 2025-1.6%+0.8%+9.5%
Q1 2025-0.9%-0.0%+2.3%
Q4 2024-9.8%-11.4%-10.6%
Q3 2024+4.4%+3.1%+12.0%
Q2 2024-0.1%+2.9%+4.3%
Q1 2024-5.0%-3.9%+0.8%
Q4 2023+3.1%+1.9%+5.4%
Q3 2023+3.1%+3.9%+6.7%
Q2 2023+11.1%+11.3%+5.9%
Q1 2023-6.2%-5.6%-11.0%
Q4 2022+6.6%+6.7%+6.0%
Q3 2022-0.9%+3.2%+14.0%
Q2 2022-3.3%-0.7%-1.2%
Q1 2022-1.1%-0.0%-4.9%
Q4 2021+6.3%+11.6%+10.8%
Q3 2021+1.5%+2.5%-1.4%
Q2 2021+3.3%+5.9%+12.2%
Q1 2021+1.7%+3.7%+4.5%
Q4 2020-5.8%-3.7%-5.6%
Q3 2020-4.4%-4.0%+10.5%
Q2 2020-1.5%-7.2%-1.4%
Q1 2020+14.3%+10.2%+19.2%
Q4 2019-4.6%-6.9%-13.2%
Q3 2019-0.1%+3.6%+2.1%
Q2 2019+0.7%+0.8%-3.1%
Q1 2019-0.6%+0.4%-7.6%
Q4 2018-0.5%+1.9%+2.3%
Q3 2018+2.3%+2.7%+9.9%
Q2 2018-4.6%-4.5%-4.9%
Q1 2018+0.5%-0.9%+3.9%
Q4 2017-0.3%-2.3%-5.9%
Q3 2017-0.0%-2.6%-6.0%
Q2 2017+1.8%+0.8%+1.6%
Q1 2017+6.2%+4.5%+8.3%
Q4 2016-1.5%+0.7%+0.2%
Q3 2016-3.2%-1.3%+4.5%
Q2 2016+0.9%+1.2%+6.3%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-13.8%
Q3 2015-6.9%
Q2 2015+7.2%
Q1 2015-10.1%
Q4 2014-4.7%
Q3 2014+10.9%
Q2 2014-3.0%
Q1 2014-1.1%
Q4 2013+10.0%
Q3 2013+0.5%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+5.2%
Q4 2012-1.8%
Q3 2012+3.0%
Q2 2012+3.7%
Q1 2012+1.6%
Q4 2011-1.8%
Q3 2011+2.0%
Q2 2011-9.7%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q1 2011+1.1%
Q4 2008-3.8%
Q4 2010-3.8%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q3 2010+2.5%
Q2 2009+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q4 2009+0.0%

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