NYSE$PKG

Packaging Corp of America · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

PCA reported first quarter results with net income of $167 million and EPS of $1.75.

Packaging Corporation of America reported a strong first quarter in 2021, with net sales reaching $1.8 billion and net income at $167 million, or $1.75 per share. Excluding special items, net income was $169 million, or $1.77 per share. The Packaging segment saw increased volume and prices, while the Paper segment experienced lower volume and prices.

  • Packaging segment demand remained very strong with a new all-time quarterly record for containerboard volume.
  • Containerboard and corrugated products price increases were implemented as planned.
  • Paper segment saw benefit of announced paper price increases compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.
  • Experienced higher inflation in manufacturing and converting costs and significantly higher freight and logistics expenses.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.81B

Previous: $1.71B+5.8%
EPS (adj)

$1.77

Previous: $1.50+18.0%
Containerboard Production

1.2M

Previous: 1.0M+14.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$85.1M

Previous: -$70.5M-20.7%
Free Cash Flow

$81.4M

Previous: $71.2M+14.3%
Net Income

$167M

Previous: $142M+17.5%
Operating Income

$238M

Previous: $209M+14.0%
Gross Profit

$404M

Previous: $365M+10.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$983M

Previous: $764M+28.7%
Total Assets

$7.55B

Previous: $7.35B+2.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$11.6M

Previous: $10.1M+14.9%

Revenue & EPS history

PCA · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.81B

Q1 2021+5.8%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

PCA · $1.79B total across 2 segments · Q1 2021

  • Packaging
    $1.62B+10.6%
  • Paper
    $165M-24.3%

Forward guidance

In the Packaging segment, demand is expected to remain strong, and previously announced price increases will continue to be implemented. Export prices are also expected to move higher. In the Paper segment, volumes are expected to be fairly flat with higher average prices and mix as recently announced paper price increases continue to roll out. Outage expenses are estimated to be approximately ($.20) per share higher compared to the first quarter. Continued inflation is anticipated with freight and logistics expenses as well as most operating and converting costs. However, energy costs should improve as we move into seasonally milder weather.

Tailwinds

  • Demand in the Packaging segment is expected to remain strong.
  • Previously announced price increases in the Packaging segment will continue to be implemented.
  • Export prices are expected to move higher.
  • Volumes in the Paper segment are expected to be fairly flat.
  • Energy costs should improve as we move into seasonally milder weather.

Headwinds

  • Outage expenses are estimated to be approximately ($.20) per share higher compared to the first quarter.
  • Continued inflation is anticipated with freight and logistics expenses.
  • Continued inflation is anticipated with most operating and converting costs.
  • Second quarter will be busiest of the year for planned annual outages in Packaging segment.
  • Work scheduled at four of mills.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

31 / 69 earnings

Positive

+14.3%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-13.8%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.8%+8.5%+5.1%
Q4 2025-2.5%+0.0%+3.8%
Q3 2025+2.3%-1.2%-5.5%
Q2 2025-1.6%+0.8%+9.5%
Q1 2025-0.9%-0.0%+2.3%
Q4 2024-9.8%-11.4%-10.6%
Q3 2024+4.4%+3.1%+12.0%
Q2 2024-0.1%+2.9%+4.3%
Q1 2024-5.0%-3.9%+0.8%
Q4 2023+3.1%+1.9%+5.4%
Q3 2023+3.1%+3.9%+6.7%
Q2 2023+11.1%+11.3%+5.9%
Q1 2023-6.2%-5.6%-11.0%
Q4 2022+6.6%+6.7%+6.0%
Q3 2022-0.9%+3.2%+14.0%
Q2 2022-3.3%-0.7%-1.2%
Q1 2022-1.1%-0.0%-4.9%
Q4 2021+6.3%+11.6%+10.8%
Q3 2021+1.5%+2.5%-1.4%
Q2 2021+3.3%+5.9%+12.2%
Q1 2021+1.7%+3.7%+4.5%
Q4 2020-5.8%-3.7%-5.6%
Q3 2020-4.4%-4.0%+10.5%
Q2 2020-1.5%-7.2%-1.4%
Q1 2020+14.3%+10.2%+19.2%
Q4 2019-4.6%-6.9%-13.2%
Q3 2019-0.1%+3.6%+2.1%
Q2 2019+0.7%+0.8%-3.1%
Q1 2019-0.6%+0.4%-7.6%
Q4 2018-0.5%+1.9%+2.3%
Q3 2018+2.3%+2.7%+9.9%
Q2 2018-4.6%-4.5%-4.9%
Q1 2018+0.5%-0.9%+3.9%
Q4 2017-0.3%-2.3%-5.9%
Q3 2017-0.0%-2.6%-6.0%
Q2 2017+1.8%+0.8%+1.6%
Q1 2017+6.2%+4.5%+8.3%
Q4 2016-1.5%+0.7%+0.2%
Q3 2016-3.2%-1.3%+4.5%
Q2 2016+0.9%+1.2%+6.3%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-13.8%
Q3 2015-6.9%
Q2 2015+7.2%
Q1 2015-10.1%
Q4 2014-4.7%
Q3 2014+10.9%
Q2 2014-3.0%
Q1 2014-1.1%
Q4 2013+10.0%
Q3 2013+0.5%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+5.2%
Q4 2012-1.8%
Q3 2012+3.0%
Q2 2012+3.7%
Q1 2012+1.6%
Q4 2011-1.8%
Q3 2011+2.0%
Q2 2011-9.7%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q1 2011+1.1%
Q4 2008-3.8%
Q4 2010-3.8%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q3 2010+2.5%
Q2 2009+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q4 2009+0.0%

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