NYSE$PKG

Packaging Corp of America · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

PCA reported third quarter earnings, driven by strong demand and price increases in the Packaging segment, as well as solid performance in the Paper segment.

Packaging Corporation of America reported a strong third quarter with net income of $238 million, or $2.64 per share. Excluding special items, net income was $239 million, or $2.65 per share. The results were driven by higher volume and prices in the Packaging segment and strong performance in the Paper segment.

  • Net income for the third quarter 2024 was $238 million, or $2.64 per share.
  • Excluding special items, net income was $239 million, or $2.65 per share.
  • Net sales for the third quarter 2024 were $2.2 billion.
  • Corrugated products shipments per day increased by 11.1% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.18B

Previous: $1.94B+12.7%
EPS (adj)

$2.65

Previous: $2.05+29.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$468M

Previous: -$329M-42.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$230M

Previous: -$145M-58.4%
Net Income

$238M

Previous: $183M+30.0%
Operating Income

$327M

Previous: $259M+26.5%
Gross Profit

$505M

Previous: $413M+22.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$677M

Previous: $573M+18.0%
Total Assets

$8.75B

Previous: $8.18B+7.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$10.4M

Previous: $7.7M+35.1%

Revenue & EPS history

PCA · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.18B

Q3 2024+12.7%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

PCA · $1.92B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Packaging
    $1.76B-9.3%
  • Paper
    $158M-4.5%

Forward guidance

PCA expects fourth quarter earnings of $2.47 per share, excluding special items.

Tailwinds

  • Demand in the Packaging segment is expected to remain strong with corrugated shipments-per-day continuing to strengthen and slightly higher containerboard volume.
  • Continued realization from the previously announced price increases.
  • Higher export prices are expected.
  • Prices and mix in the Paper segment should be fairly flat.
  • Containerboard inventory will be built prior to year-end.

Headwinds

  • Total shipments for the corrugated business will be impacted by two less shipping days.
  • Recent hurricane damage to the strawberry crops in Florida will impact total shipments.
  • A seasonally less rich mix compared to the third quarter is expected.
  • Shipments in the Paper segment will be lower versus the seasonally stronger third quarter.
  • Operating and converting costs are expected to increase driven by higher seasonal energy costs and chemical costs.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

31 / 69 earnings

Positive

+14.3%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-13.8%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.8%+8.5%+5.1%
Q4 2025-2.5%+0.0%+3.8%
Q3 2025+2.3%-1.2%-5.5%
Q2 2025-1.6%+0.8%+9.5%
Q1 2025-0.9%-0.0%+2.3%
Q4 2024-9.8%-11.4%-10.6%
Q3 2024+4.4%+3.1%+12.0%
Q2 2024-0.1%+2.9%+4.3%
Q1 2024-5.0%-3.9%+0.8%
Q4 2023+3.1%+1.9%+5.4%
Q3 2023+3.1%+3.9%+6.7%
Q2 2023+11.1%+11.3%+5.9%
Q1 2023-6.2%-5.6%-11.0%
Q4 2022+6.6%+6.7%+6.0%
Q3 2022-0.9%+3.2%+14.0%
Q2 2022-3.3%-0.7%-1.2%
Q1 2022-1.1%-0.0%-4.9%
Q4 2021+6.3%+11.6%+10.8%
Q3 2021+1.5%+2.5%-1.4%
Q2 2021+3.3%+5.9%+12.2%
Q1 2021+1.7%+3.7%+4.5%
Q4 2020-5.8%-3.7%-5.6%
Q3 2020-4.4%-4.0%+10.5%
Q2 2020-1.5%-7.2%-1.4%
Q1 2020+14.3%+10.2%+19.2%
Q4 2019-4.6%-6.9%-13.2%
Q3 2019-0.1%+3.6%+2.1%
Q2 2019+0.7%+0.8%-3.1%
Q1 2019-0.6%+0.4%-7.6%
Q4 2018-0.5%+1.9%+2.3%
Q3 2018+2.3%+2.7%+9.9%
Q2 2018-4.6%-4.5%-4.9%
Q1 2018+0.5%-0.9%+3.9%
Q4 2017-0.3%-2.3%-5.9%
Q3 2017-0.0%-2.6%-6.0%
Q2 2017+1.8%+0.8%+1.6%
Q1 2017+6.2%+4.5%+8.3%
Q4 2016-1.5%+0.7%+0.2%
Q3 2016-3.2%-1.3%+4.5%
Q2 2016+0.9%+1.2%+6.3%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-13.8%
Q3 2015-6.9%
Q2 2015+7.2%
Q1 2015-10.1%
Q4 2014-4.7%
Q3 2014+10.9%
Q2 2014-3.0%
Q1 2014-1.1%
Q4 2013+10.0%
Q3 2013+0.5%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+5.2%
Q4 2012-1.8%
Q3 2012+3.0%
Q2 2012+3.7%
Q1 2012+1.6%
Q4 2011-1.8%
Q3 2011+2.0%
Q2 2011-9.7%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q1 2011+1.1%
Q4 2008-3.8%
Q4 2010-3.8%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q3 2010+2.5%
Q2 2009+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q4 2009+0.0%

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