NYSE$PKG

Packaging Corp of America · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported fourth quarter earnings, with net sales being $1.7 billion.

Packaging Corporation of America reported fourth quarter net income of $124 million, or $1.30 per share. Fourth quarter net sales were $1.7 billion, the same as in 2019.

  • Demand in Packaging segment remained very strong with record sales volumes.
  • Packaging segment price increases began late in the quarter.
  • Paper segment market conditions continue to be challenged due to the nationwide responses to help control the spread of the pandemic.
  • Jackson mill was restarted on white paper in October and produced both paper and containerboard during the quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.71B

Previous: $1.72B-0.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.33

Previous: $1.71-22.2%
Containerboard Production

1.2M

Previous: 1.1M+8.8%
Capital Expenditures

$168M

Previous: $136M+23.6%
Free Cash Flow

$103M

Previous: $194M-46.6%
Net Income

$124M

Previous: $136M-9.3%
Operating Income

$189M

Previous: $235M-19.5%
Gross Profit

$333M

Previous: $383M-13.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$975M

Previous: $680M+43.4%
Total Assets

$975M

Previous: $7.24B-86.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$6.2M

Previous: $5.9M+5.1%

Revenue & EPS history

PCA · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.71B

Q4 2020-0.3%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

PCA · $1.71B total across 3 segments · Q4 2020

  • Packaging
    $1.54B+5.5%
  • Paper
    $156M-36.1%
  • Corporate and Other
    $17.2M+8.2%

Forward guidance

PCA is not able to appropriately quantify their guidance for the first quarter.

Tailwinds

  • Packaging segment demand should remain strong.
  • Shipments exceeding those of last year’s record first quarter.
  • Continue producing containerboard at Jackson Mill.
  • Realize the majority of recently announced packaging segment price increases during the first quarter.
  • Average export prices to move higher as well.

Headwinds

  • Higher freight costs are expected to continue.
  • Labor costs will be higher with annual wage inflation.
  • Timing-related increases to fringes and benefits as we start a new year.
  • Seasonally colder weather will increase energy and wood costs.
  • Expect higher prices for recycled fiber.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

31 / 69 earnings

Positive

+14.3%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-13.8%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.8%+8.5%+5.1%
Q4 2025-2.5%+0.0%+3.8%
Q3 2025+2.3%-1.2%-5.5%
Q2 2025-1.6%+0.8%+9.5%
Q1 2025-0.9%-0.0%+2.3%
Q4 2024-9.8%-11.4%-10.6%
Q3 2024+4.4%+3.1%+12.0%
Q2 2024-0.1%+2.9%+4.3%
Q1 2024-5.0%-3.9%+0.8%
Q4 2023+3.1%+1.9%+5.4%
Q3 2023+3.1%+3.9%+6.7%
Q2 2023+11.1%+11.3%+5.9%
Q1 2023-6.2%-5.6%-11.0%
Q4 2022+6.6%+6.7%+6.0%
Q3 2022-0.9%+3.2%+14.0%
Q2 2022-3.3%-0.7%-1.2%
Q1 2022-1.1%-0.0%-4.9%
Q4 2021+6.3%+11.6%+10.8%
Q3 2021+1.5%+2.5%-1.4%
Q2 2021+3.3%+5.9%+12.2%
Q1 2021+1.7%+3.7%+4.5%
Q4 2020-5.8%-3.7%-5.6%
Q3 2020-4.4%-4.0%+10.5%
Q2 2020-1.5%-7.2%-1.4%
Q1 2020+14.3%+10.2%+19.2%
Q4 2019-4.6%-6.9%-13.2%
Q3 2019-0.1%+3.6%+2.1%
Q2 2019+0.7%+0.8%-3.1%
Q1 2019-0.6%+0.4%-7.6%
Q4 2018-0.5%+1.9%+2.3%
Q3 2018+2.3%+2.7%+9.9%
Q2 2018-4.6%-4.5%-4.9%
Q1 2018+0.5%-0.9%+3.9%
Q4 2017-0.3%-2.3%-5.9%
Q3 2017-0.0%-2.6%-6.0%
Q2 2017+1.8%+0.8%+1.6%
Q1 2017+6.2%+4.5%+8.3%
Q4 2016-1.5%+0.7%+0.2%
Q3 2016-3.2%-1.3%+4.5%
Q2 2016+0.9%+1.2%+6.3%
Q1 2016+1.2%
Q4 2015-13.8%
Q3 2015-6.9%
Q2 2015+7.2%
Q1 2015-10.1%
Q4 2014-4.7%
Q3 2014+10.9%
Q2 2014-3.0%
Q1 2014-1.1%
Q4 2013+10.0%
Q3 2013+0.5%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+5.2%
Q4 2012-1.8%
Q3 2012+3.0%
Q2 2012+3.7%
Q1 2012+1.6%
Q4 2011-1.8%
Q3 2011+2.0%
Q2 2011-9.7%
Q1 2010+1.6%
Q1 2011+1.1%
Q4 2008-3.8%
Q4 2010-3.8%
Q3 2009+2.5%
Q3 2010+2.5%
Q2 2009+0.0%
Q2 2010+0.0%
Q4 2009+0.0%

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