NYSE$NOG

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Northern Oil and Gas reported record oil and total volumes, generated record cash flow from operations, and saw leverage levels decline year over year.

Northern Oil and Gas announced strong Q4 2023 results, with increased oil and total volumes, record cash flow from operations, and reduced leverage. Production reached 114,363 Boe per day, a 45% increase year-over-year. The company also provided detailed 2024 guidance, projecting significant production growth and cash generation.

  • Production of 114,363 Boe per day (60.2% oil), a 45% increase from the fourth quarter of the prior year
  • GAAP cash flow from operations of $342.4 million, excluding changes in net working capital, cash flow from operations was $365.9 million, an increase of 56% from the fourth quarter of the prior year
  • Capital expenditures of $260.0 million, excluding previously-announced non-budgeted acquisitions and other items
  • Increased Free Cash Flow (non-GAAP) by 19% to $103.6 million from the fourth quarter of the prior year

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$546M

Previous: $446M+22.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.61

Previous: $1.43+12.6%
Total Production

114.4K

Previous: 78.9K+45.0%
Oil Production

68.9K

Previous: 46.9K+46.9%
Adjusted EBITDA

$402M

Previous: $265M+51.7%
Capital Expenditures

$260M

Previous: $143M+81.9%
Net Income

$389M

Previous: $133M+191.7%
Operating Income

$484M

Previous: $168M+188.9%
Gross Profit

$11.4M

Previous: $258M-95.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.18M

Previous: $1.45M-18.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Northern Oil and Gas · Revenue · Quarterly

$546M

Q4 2023+22.6%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Northern Oil and Gas · $130M total across 1 segment · Q1 2020

  • Oil and Gas Sales
    $130M

Forward guidance

NOG anticipates approximately 115,000 - 120,000 Boe per day of production in 2024, an increase of approximately 20% at the midpoint from 2023 levels. NOG currently expects total capital spending in the range of $825 - $900 million for 2024 with approximately 50% of its 2024 budget to be spent on the Permian, 35% on the Williston, and 1% on the Appalachian. The remainder of the budget is for Ground Game capital and increased workover and other items.

Tailwinds

  • Annual Production (Boe per day) 115,000 - 120,000
  • Annual Oil Production (Bbls per day) 70,000 - 73,000
  • Total Capital Expenditures ($ in millions) $825 - $900
  • Net Wells Turned-in-Line 87.5 - 92.5
  • Net Wells Spud 67.5 - 72.5

Headwinds

  • Production Expenses (per Boe) $9.25 - $10.00
  • Production Taxes (as a percentage of Oil & Gas Sales) 9.0% - 10.0%
  • Average Differential to NYMEX WTI (per Bbl) ($4.00) - ($4.50)
  • Average Realization as a Percentage of NYMEX Henry Hub (per Mcf) 80% - 85%
  • DD&A (per Boe) $15.50 - $17.50

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+2.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+7.1%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+34.4%

Q2 2010

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q3 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%-2.8%-21.1%
Q4 2025-0.6%+6.1%+16.4%
Q3 2025+5.6%+7.6%+21.3%
Q1 2025-1.9%-1.9%+7.4%
Q4 2024-0.1%-9.1%-14.9%
Q3 2024+13.4%+13.0%+14.6%
Q2 2024+7.4%-4.1%+0.2%
Q1 2024-8.9%-7.6%-8.0%
Q4 2023-0.9%+1.7%+10.5%
Q3 2023+0.9%-1.9%-1.1%
Q2 2023+5.6%+6.2%+9.2%
Q1 2023+2.7%+0.7%+1.3%
Q4 2022+5.1%+1.5%-7.3%
Q3 2022-3.2%+5.2%-11.5%
Q2 2022-12.2%-7.2%+7.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%-6.4%+20.8%
Q4 2021+2.8%+9.5%+28.2%
Q3 2021+3.4%-0.8%-20.9%
Q2 2021+8.2%+9.3%+9.9%
Q1 2021+4.1%+4.8%+23.7%
Q4 2020-2.8%-2.1%-12.4%
Q3 2020+19.7%+27.7%+124.6%
Q2 2020-4.4%-5.8%-29.1%
Q1 2020+13.8%+14.5%+48.7%
Q4 2019-1.2%-18.8%-12.5%
Q3 2019-1.9%-3.4%-8.2%
Q2 2019-7.4%+0.0%+13.6%
Q1 2019-1.3%-4.8%-12.2%
Q4 2018+11.3%+8.1%+17.6%
Q3 2018-3.5%-16.5%-23.5%
Q2 2018-2.4%-17.5%-7.6%
Q1 2018+14.9%+28.6%+42.9%
Q4 2017+7.3%+9.9%-7.3%
Q3 2017-7.7%-9.2%+24.6%
Q2 2017-5.0%+1.0%-21.0%
Q1 2017+5.1%+0.0%-12.8%
Q4 2016+1.7%-5.0%-13.3%
Q3 2016+8.6%+2.9%+85.7%
Q2 2016+6.6%+11.3%-6.9%
Q1 2016-4.8%
Q4 2015+31.8%
Q3 2015+8.0%
Q2 2015+6.1%
Q1 2015-10.8%
Q4 2014+1.7%
Q3 2014+7.5%
Q2 2014+1.7%
Q1 2014-6.3%
Q4 2013-11.5%
Q3 2013+0.8%
Q2 2013+2.0%
Q1 2013+0.4%
Q4 2012+1.2%
Q3 2012-3.5%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-0.3%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q4 2009-2.6%
Q4 2011-2.6%
Q3 2011-16.6%
Q3 2010-16.6%
Q2 2011+34.4%
Q4 2010+34.4%
Q2 2010+34.4%
Q1 2010+5.6%

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