NYSE$NOG

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Northern Oil and Gas reported record quarterly production and strong financial performance, driven by organic growth and strategic acquisitions.

Northern Oil and Gas announced a strong third quarter with record production of 102,327 Boe per day, a 29% increase year-over-year. The company reported GAAP net income of $26.1 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $385.5 million. Free cash flow was $127.8 million. NOG also completed the Novo acquisition and increased its dividend.

  • Achieved record quarterly production of 102,327 Boe per day, a 29% increase year-over-year.
  • Reported GAAP net income of $26.1 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $385.5 million.
  • Generated $127.8 million of Free Cash Flow.
  • Closed on the acquisition of a 33.33% undivided stake in the Novo assets for $468.4 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$314M

Previous: $792M-60.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.73

Previous: $1.80-3.9%
Total Production

102.3K

Previous: 79.1K+29.3%
Oil Production

63.6K

Previous: 45.1K+40.9%
Adjusted EBITDA

$386M

Previous: $292M+31.8%
Capital Expenditures

$217M

Previous: $155M+40.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$1.46B

Previous: -$247M-491.3%
Net Income

$26.1M

Previous: $583M-95.5%
Operating Income

$42.4M

Previous: $605M-93.0%
Gross Profit

$231M

Previous: $723M-68.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$13M

Previous: $9.13M+41.9%
Total Assets

$4.3B

Previous: $2.47B+74.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.29M

Previous: $1.34M-3.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Northern Oil and Gas · Revenue · Quarterly

$314M

Q3 2023-60.3%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 14 quarters(57%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Northern Oil and Gas · $130M total across 1 segment · Q1 2020

  • Oil and Gas Sales
    $130M

Forward guidance

NOG is updating its annual guidance. The increase in budgeted capital expenditures is being driven by accelerated development activity and Ground Game success, which are primarily focused on 2024 turn-in-line activity. Overall, the Company expects its 2023 well spud count to increase to a range of 76 - 79 net wells, compared to expectations of 68 - 71 net wells implied in prior guidance. The Company has also tightened production guidance, with the midpoint unchanged, and modestly improved oil differential and gas realization guidance to reflect year-to-date actuals.

Tailwinds

  • Annual Production (Boe per day) is expected between 97,000 - 99,000
  • Oil as a Percentage of Production is expected between 62.0% - 63.0%
  • Total Budgeted Capital Expenditures (in millions) is expected between $790 - $820
  • Net Wells Turned-in-Line (“TIL”) is expected between 75 - 78
  • Average Realization as a Percentage of NYMEX Henry Hub (per Mcf) is expected between 95.0% - 105.0%

Headwinds

  • Production Expenses (per Boe) is expected between $9.35 - $9.55
  • Production Taxes (as a percentage of Oil & Gas Sales) is expected between 8.0% - 9.0%
  • DD&A Rate (per Boe) is expected between $13.00 - $13.80
  • Average Differential to NYMEX WTI (per Bbl) is expected between ($3.00) - ($3.75)
  • General and Administrative Expense (per Boe): Non-Cash is expected between $0.20 - $0.25

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+2.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+7.1%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+34.4%

Q2 2010

Best reaction

-16.6%

Q3 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%-2.8%-21.1%
Q4 2025-0.6%+6.1%+16.4%
Q3 2025+5.6%+7.6%+21.3%
Q1 2025-1.9%-1.9%+7.4%
Q4 2024-0.1%-9.1%-14.9%
Q3 2024+13.4%+13.0%+14.6%
Q2 2024+7.4%-4.1%+0.2%
Q1 2024-8.9%-7.6%-8.0%
Q4 2023-0.9%+1.7%+10.5%
Q3 2023+0.9%-1.9%-1.1%
Q2 2023+5.6%+6.2%+9.2%
Q1 2023+2.7%+0.7%+1.3%
Q4 2022+5.1%+1.5%-7.3%
Q3 2022-3.2%+5.2%-11.5%
Q2 2022-12.2%-7.2%+7.7%
Q1 2022+4.6%-6.4%+20.8%
Q4 2021+2.8%+9.5%+28.2%
Q3 2021+3.4%-0.8%-20.9%
Q2 2021+8.2%+9.3%+9.9%
Q1 2021+4.1%+4.8%+23.7%
Q4 2020-2.8%-2.1%-12.4%
Q3 2020+19.7%+27.7%+124.6%
Q2 2020-4.4%-5.8%-29.1%
Q1 2020+13.8%+14.5%+48.7%
Q4 2019-1.2%-18.8%-12.5%
Q3 2019-1.9%-3.4%-8.2%
Q2 2019-7.4%+0.0%+13.6%
Q1 2019-1.3%-4.8%-12.2%
Q4 2018+11.3%+8.1%+17.6%
Q3 2018-3.5%-16.5%-23.5%
Q2 2018-2.4%-17.5%-7.6%
Q1 2018+14.9%+28.6%+42.9%
Q4 2017+7.3%+9.9%-7.3%
Q3 2017-7.7%-9.2%+24.6%
Q2 2017-5.0%+1.0%-21.0%
Q1 2017+5.1%+0.0%-12.8%
Q4 2016+1.7%-5.0%-13.3%
Q3 2016+8.6%+2.9%+85.7%
Q2 2016+6.6%+11.3%-6.9%
Q1 2016-4.8%
Q4 2015+31.8%
Q3 2015+8.0%
Q2 2015+6.1%
Q1 2015-10.8%
Q4 2014+1.7%
Q3 2014+7.5%
Q2 2014+1.7%
Q1 2014-6.3%
Q4 2013-11.5%
Q3 2013+0.8%
Q2 2013+2.0%
Q1 2013+0.4%
Q4 2012+1.2%
Q3 2012-3.5%
Q2 2012+1.6%
Q1 2011-0.3%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q4 2009-2.6%
Q4 2011-2.6%
Q3 2011-16.6%
Q3 2010-16.6%
Q2 2011+34.4%
Q4 2010+34.4%
Q2 2010+34.4%
Q1 2010+5.6%

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